Fierce storm hammers Southeast U.S.
The Southeast U.S. is under the gun today from a combination of severe thunderstorms, high winds, heavy rain, and coastal storm surge flooding. A tornado was reported on the ground near Eglin Air Force Base, Florida this morning, and tornado warnings have been posted for two separate squall lines moving through the Florida Panhandle and neighboring regions of Alabama and Georgia. These squall lines are expected to intensify and generate tornadoes, heavy rain, and strong winds as they push eastwards today. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put most of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina in their "Slight Risk" category for severe weather today, warning of the possibility of supercell thunderstorms capable of spawning tornadoes. If the air mass in front of these squall lines becomes sufficiently unstable this afternoon due to solar heating of the lower atmosphere and other factors, SPC may need to upgrade their severe weather category to "Moderate Risk", the second highest level of risk.
Figure 1. Satellite image of the December 2 storm. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
The storm's powerful winds blowing over the Gulf of Mexico have created storm surges of 2 - 3 feet along the coast, from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. A storm surge of two feet was recorded in Waveland, Mississippi last night and this morning, which caused flooding of low-lying roads in Hancock County. New Orleans recorded 2.42" of rain yesterday from the storm, breaking their record for the rainiest December 1. Radar-estimated rainfall (Figure 2) shows up to five inches of rain has fallen over some regions of the Florida Panhandle, and additional rainfall amounts of 2 - 5 inches are expected along the track of the storm as it heads north-northeast today. Flash flooding was reported in Charleston, SC this morning, closing several roads.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from the December 2 Gulf Coast storm.
Also receiving a pounding from the storm were the Gulf Coast beaches from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola. A storm surge of two feet, topped by battering waves 10 - 12 feet high, probably caused millions of dollars of erosion damage last night and this morning. A 16-mile stretch of man-made beach encompassing the Alabama coastal communities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach suffered $5 million in erosion damage from the pounding delivered by Tropical Storm Ida last month. The two beach communities, along with Gulf State Park, spent about $24.2 million in 2005 to strengthen 16 miles of shoreline by dredging about 6 million cubic yards of sand from the sea floor and dumping it on shore. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in 2008 did about $9.5 million in erosion damage to the Gulf Shores beach. Because the beach is man-made, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Alabama Emergency Management Agency treated it as they do bridges and highways, paying 85 percent of the tab to repair storm damage.
You can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our Severe Weather and Tornado pages.
Second Annual Portlight Honor Walk this weekend
When:
Saturday, December 5, 2009 or Sunday, December 6, 2009
What:
A nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of Portlight's ongoing efforts specifically aimed at providing Christmas presents for kids and families devastated by the recent Atlanta floods, South Carolina wildfires, American Samoa tsunami, and other disasters that may occur.
Why:
Un-served, underserved and forgotten people are depending on us.
How:
We need one hundred people across the country to commit to walking one mile on this day, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where to walk--it can be the park, the mall the neighborhood--anywhere you choose. The first 100 participants to raise at least $300 will receive a commemorative T-Shirt.
To register, simply e-mail your intention to participate at paul@portlight.org
Check the Portlight featured Weather Underground Blog regularly for updates!
The Honor Walk Sponsor Form available here will help you keep track of funds and pledges:
http://www.portlight.org/images/walkerform.pdf
Next post
The embattled director of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the UK's University of East Anglia announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director until an independent review resulting from allegations following the publication of emails illegally hacked from his computers. I'll be posting a response tonight or Thursday morning, assuming that today's storm does not generate a deadly tornado outbreak. I'm also working on a post titled, "Don't Shoot the Messenger", in response to charges by the Wall Street Journal in an editorial yesterday that climate scientists have a vested interest in promoting alarmist views of the climate in order to get research funding.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Morning.
That's exactly it. As the upper low travels further and further to the NNE, the surface reflection becomes nothing but a decaying frontal boundary. If you notice the 1993 outbreak the parent low traveled ENE out of the GOM over North FLA.
This current storm traveled much further inland and to the N and W than originally modeled, hence the lack of rain/storms in the lower peninsula. I doubt we'll get anything from this today. On the other hand, the disturbance forecast to develop in the GOM today may pack more of a punch to the lower peninsula than the current one as it is forecast to travel ENE.
Looks that way.
Jacksonville,FL. had .88 inches for November.
Tampa,FL. had .67 inches for November.
Orlando,FL. had 1.18 inches for November.
Miami,FL. had 2.97 inches for November.
Pensacola,FL. had 4.91 inches for November.
I see some snow is predicted for Saturday. Wondering what the bloggers feel about that forecast.
Looking at the GFS, I think your right. So close here in PBC but not close enough to see anything appreciable.
rainfall total overnight: .31"
Highest gust: 22mph.
What a jip!
In typical fashion the rain fizzled mostly before it reached us. Thankfully so did any severe weather.
I'll take whatever I can get. The fruit trees are THIRSTY!
The total rainfall amount here on my gauge registered just over 1 inch here in North Jax. All of the severe weather reports yesterday and last night were mainly just north of here in Georgia, SC and NC.
I took a look at the ECMWF this morning. This model not as aggressive as the GFS in regards to the GOM system/ upper shortwave for Friday -Saturday period. ECMWF not nearly as moist as the GFS. GFS rather aggressive with showing abundant moisture. Possible 2 inch snowfall amounts in some pockets GFS is forecasting with a swath at or just north of a line along Interstate 10
from interior SE TX , through Louisiana, and up into Jackson, MS. Looks more like wintry mix possible right along the immediate coast.
Most of the WFOs in these areas are apparently going to remain biased toward the GFS for this upcoming event. Should it verifies. Yeah, could be for the second year in arow in early December a very significant Deep Dixie snowfall. Amazing indeed.
I am awaiting the later runs today to see how this may pan out for the Piedmont region of the Carolinas. I will be traveling to Charlotte tomorrow and be there over the weekend. I will be curious to see if the emerging Low Pressure that will begin moving off the SE Atlantic coast on Saturday. There may be some moisture lifting north in the Piedmont as the Low passes that area off the coast. This system may advect enough cold air advection up in that area for brief period of wintry weather there on Saturday.
Have a great day everyone.
Lightning Impact Statement
THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED BY.
No. The reason why the system lost its punch is because the energy (low) was lifting northward while the front (squall line) was dropping southeast. The system simply lost its energy.
Let's see what happens over the next 2 days. A new low is expected to form and travel with its energy across the state giving widespread 2-5 inch rains with a possibility of stronger storms on Saturday.
SPC AC 030748
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CST THU DEC 03 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM
THE MS/AL AREA NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN RESPONSE TO
EVOLVING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODELS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING NEWD FROM THE ERN GULF
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN FL...THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE NATION SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
...FL PENINSULA...
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF FL...CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRUSHING AREA SHOULD SUPPORT A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION...MAINLY
BETWEEN 12Z-20Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 50 TO 60 KT AND MLCAPES FROM
1000-2000 J/KG FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. ALSO...STRONGLY VEERED WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...ALONG
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT WINDS IN THE LOWER 100 MB YIELDS 1KM
SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. THEREFORE...A THREAT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS CO-LOCATED
OR LOCATED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.
..IMY.. 12/03/2009
Good call. I figured as much too because it always seems like we miss out on serious rain no matter how likely it seems that we'll get it. I sleep like a rock but my wife sleeps relatively lightly and neither of us were awoken by any storm activity. .31" is better than nothing though! Keep your fingers crossed!
Please heed this warning... dont end up a victim of a lightning strike like myself. It's the worst thing to ever happen to me.
Interesting observation. I noticed it too. The winds yesterday afternoon were vicious but then around sundown they died down. Think that may have been when the separation occurred?
Yeh,not sure how much we will get,plus ocean is still pretty warm,so without any artic air around,could end up with a mixture,and depending on the track.
NWS is calling for isolated areas of 2-3". Based on the discussion, they are going more strongly with the GFS, which is forecasting the most snow. The ECMWF is the least aggressive with the snow (calling for a trace), and the NAM is in the middle (isolated totals of an inch).
I read that to mean he thinks it might happen, but doesn't expect anything to accumulate.
I trust his snow forecasts after he totally called for last year's snow more than 2 weeks in advance...and he was adamant and definitive about that one. Used words like "It will" vs. maybe or could.
Well, when you watch your team play Sunday you might see some around the Stadium!
Odds aren't bad they'll be playing on some snow on Sunday:
FED EX Field area, Saturday night
Overnight Low
27°F
Snow Shower
Precip
60%
Odds are better they'll be 12-0
Deadskins pffft.
Looks like it could be one of those Debate Days.
Enter at Your Own Risk :)
We are under a flood watch through Sat. for 4 to 6 inches of rain the next 2 days.
Any other thoughts on this system.
Thanks
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