Fierce storm hammers Southeast U.S.
The Southeast U.S. is under the gun today from a combination of severe thunderstorms, high winds, heavy rain, and coastal storm surge flooding. A tornado was reported on the ground near Eglin Air Force Base, Florida this morning, and tornado warnings have been posted for two separate squall lines moving through the Florida Panhandle and neighboring regions of Alabama and Georgia. These squall lines are expected to intensify and generate tornadoes, heavy rain, and strong winds as they push eastwards today. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put most of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina in their "Slight Risk" category for severe weather today, warning of the possibility of supercell thunderstorms capable of spawning tornadoes. If the air mass in front of these squall lines becomes sufficiently unstable this afternoon due to solar heating of the lower atmosphere and other factors, SPC may need to upgrade their severe weather category to "Moderate Risk", the second highest level of risk.
Figure 1. Satellite image of the December 2 storm. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
The storm's powerful winds blowing over the Gulf of Mexico have created storm surges of 2 - 3 feet along the coast, from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. A storm surge of two feet was recorded in Waveland, Mississippi last night and this morning, which caused flooding of low-lying roads in Hancock County. New Orleans recorded 2.42" of rain yesterday from the storm, breaking their record for the rainiest December 1. Radar-estimated rainfall (Figure 2) shows up to five inches of rain has fallen over some regions of the Florida Panhandle, and additional rainfall amounts of 2 - 5 inches are expected along the track of the storm as it heads north-northeast today. Flash flooding was reported in Charleston, SC this morning, closing several roads.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from the December 2 Gulf Coast storm.
Also receiving a pounding from the storm were the Gulf Coast beaches from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola. A storm surge of two feet, topped by battering waves 10 - 12 feet high, probably caused millions of dollars of erosion damage last night and this morning. A 16-mile stretch of man-made beach encompassing the Alabama coastal communities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach suffered $5 million in erosion damage from the pounding delivered by Tropical Storm Ida last month. The two beach communities, along with Gulf State Park, spent about $24.2 million in 2005 to strengthen 16 miles of shoreline by dredging about 6 million cubic yards of sand from the sea floor and dumping it on shore. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in 2008 did about $9.5 million in erosion damage to the Gulf Shores beach. Because the beach is man-made, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Alabama Emergency Management Agency treated it as they do bridges and highways, paying 85 percent of the tab to repair storm damage.
You can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our Severe Weather and Tornado pages.
Second Annual Portlight Honor Walk this weekend
When:
Saturday, December 5, 2009 or Sunday, December 6, 2009
What:
A nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of Portlight's ongoing efforts specifically aimed at providing Christmas presents for kids and families devastated by the recent Atlanta floods, South Carolina wildfires, American Samoa tsunami, and other disasters that may occur.
Why:
Un-served, underserved and forgotten people are depending on us.
How:
We need one hundred people across the country to commit to walking one mile on this day, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where to walk--it can be the park, the mall the neighborhood--anywhere you choose. The first 100 participants to raise at least $300 will receive a commemorative T-Shirt.
To register, simply e-mail your intention to participate at paul@portlight.org
Check the Portlight featured Weather Underground Blog regularly for updates!
The Honor Walk Sponsor Form available here will help you keep track of funds and pledges:
http://www.portlight.org/images/walkerform.pdf
Next post
The embattled director of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the UK's University of East Anglia announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director until an independent review resulting from allegations following the publication of emails illegally hacked from his computers. I'll be posting a response tonight or Thursday morning, assuming that today's storm does not generate a deadly tornado outbreak. I'm also working on a post titled, "Don't Shoot the Messenger", in response to charges by the Wall Street Journal in an editorial yesterday that climate scientists have a vested interest in promoting alarmist views of the climate in order to get research funding.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sadly we lost Lorenz a year or so ago...
I was hoping for a good soaking but it looks like we'll get .1 to .2 inches and thats it.
Well, the last line of potent thunderstorms are curently moving through the Jax metro area. These storms are moving through rapidly, and thankfully we haven't had any tornadic or damaging winds in Jax area. So far, I have measured just over an inch of rainfall, but I'll take another measurement when this event ends. I did see where the Jax WFO did issue severe thunderstorm warnings for area and counties all surrounding Jax in all directions.
We get a brief respite tomorrow before the next potent shortwave rounds the base of the strong upper level trough late Thursday into Friday. Another Gulf Low will spin up in the Western Gulf in response to the shortwave through during Friday and will rapidly move E-NE. The dynamical pattern in the upper levels, combined with cold air advection diving down south to the Gulf Coast and overrunning moisture .... Umm. The models are all jumping on another eventful snow event for SE Texas, much of Louisiana, into Mississippi and North and Central Alabama late Friday night into Saturday morning. After glancing the models, I would not be surprised if we see decent accumulating snowfall in these regions when the event ends by midday Saturday. Interesting indeed and we shall wait to see if all this verifies.
Amazing! The active El Nino pattern is kicking into high gear it appears for the SEUS.
From my north balcony the sky is faintly red. No sound of thunder yet or signs of lightening. Will keep you posted.
University of West Florida lost power, and my class as well as a presentaion was cancelled!
Would this qualify as a Derecho event?
check post # 600.
Have the weather station up and running...
Hope this helps: Link
Don't watch the local news here for winter weather. They hype up EVERYTHING. Check here, and read the discussions on the local pages. How far out west are you? (I live in The Woodlands, my g/f lives in Sugar Land, and my parents live in Katy)
000
FXUS64 KHGX 022141
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.UPDATE...
MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH THURSDAY/12Z. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
..WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY...
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AREA
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH.
FRIDAY:
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS ON TAP AND A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND OVER
RIDE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY
FRIDAY AS LIGHT RAIN. THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL QUICKLY AND
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
AND FALL THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE CAN/ECMWF AND UKMET ALL FAVOR
KEEPING THE MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LIGHT QPF TOTALS.
THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHER INLAND WITH SOME HEAVIER QPF TOTALS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE BETWEN 0.7-0.8 INCHES
WHICH IS RATHER ROBUST IN THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS. ALSO THE MODELS
SHOW A DECENT JET COUPLET AT 300 MB. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE IN A
RRQ OF THE POLAR JET AND IN A LFQ OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE AND COULD ACTUALLY BE THE KEY TO DETERMINING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BUT NEITHER MODEL HAS AGREED WITH THE
OTHER. IF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS AS STRONG AS THE GFS/NAM
INDICATES...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. IF THE WEAKER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
PER THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...ONLY FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. THIS IS A DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION AND THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. KEEP UP WITH
THE FORECASTS!
Knocking on your doorstep.
As the late great John Updike once said,
"All blessings are mixed..."
I see some early morning rain and perhaps some thunderstorms...but nothing severe as of yet.
I take what accuweather's forecast is with a grain of salt. More hype. NOAA is hedging their bets in the official (read: simple) forecast. The discussion bears out all the factors, and mentions what is most likely, and also what is possible. This definitely won't be a major event that drops a couple of inches overnight. There may be isolated spots getting an inch or two, but the moisture simply won't be in place long enough for a widespread event.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
901 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 930 PM EST
* AT 900 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MADEIRA BEACH...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SEMINOLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MADEIRA BEACH.
GULFPORT.
KENNETH CITY.
PINELLAS PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
&&
Thank you. I saw it after NRAamy was bugging me about my old avatar in jest (I had a screaming head thingy that looked cool). I found that one, and it fits me so well, I made it my avatar.
Frying Pan Tower
NDBC - Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy Observations
Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy
December 2, 2009 8:50 pm EST
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Wind Direction: S (170°)
Wind Speed: 25.3 knots
Wind Gust: 33.0 knots
Significant Wave Height: 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Period: 5.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (147°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in (1005.5 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.06 in (-2.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 75.9°F (24.4°C)
Dew Point: 70.5°F (21.4°C)
Water Temperature: 73.0°F (22.8°C)
WOUS20 KWNS 030136
WWASPC
SPC WW-A 030140
FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-030240-
STATUS REPORT ON WW 790
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PIE
TO 25 ENE GNV TO 5 NNW JAX TO 40 ESE SAV.
..GARNER..12/03/09
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 790
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC031-089-030240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUVAL NASSAU
$$
AMZ450-452-030240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
$$
(Best at full size...click!)
Spotters are Activated.
28/82
I am glad that you're area was not seriously affected. However, it appears parts on NC and FL may not be as fortunate
Statement as of 9:16 PM EST on December 02, 2009
The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
eastern Horry County in northeast South Carolina
southwestern Brunswick County in southeast North Carolina
southern Columbus County in southeast North Carolina
* until 1000 PM EST
* at 914 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located near hand... or 6 miles west of
North Myrtle Beach... and moving northeast at 40 mph.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the warned area. Remember
that severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes very quickly.
Remain alert to changing weather conditions.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph are expected from this storm. Seek
shelter in a sturdy structure until the storm has passed.
Severe thunderstorms produce damaging wind in excess of 60 mph...
destructive hail... deadly lightning and heavy rain. For your
protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of your home
or business.
Please report hail... downed trees or damaging winds to the National
Weather Service in Wilmington NC... toll free at 877-633-6772... when
you can do so safely.
SRN PORTION OF QLCS EXTENDS INTO NRN FL AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WITH 70 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 80.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z TAMPA RAOB SHOWS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN THE
600-400 MB LAYER SINCE 18Z...RESULTING IN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITING MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN
VERY STRONG IN THIS REGION WITH SFC-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
FROM 300-400 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND PRIMARY FORCING LIFT NWD. IN THE
MEANTIME VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO A
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT.
I think so, it appears to be advancing, finally haha
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