Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ida pulls its punch; El Salvador floods kill 130

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009

A weakening Tropical Storm Ida limped ashore near Dauphin Island, Alabama at 5:40 am CST this morning, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Winds at coastal locations during Ida's landfall were mostly below tropical storm force. One exception was Dauphin Island, where winds peaked at 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph, near midnight. Radar-estimated rainfall from Ida showed many regions received 3 - 5 inches of rain (Figure 1), which has caused some minor river and street flooding. The main damage from Ida seems to have been beach erosion, as a 3 - 6 foot storm surge topped by battering waves affected a long stretch of coast, from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Ida drove a 5.5 foot storm surge to Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans). Ida did not spawn any tornadoes, and the Storm Prediction Center Discussion for today maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and the prospects for severe weather today are low.

Ida's remnants and Invest 98L
Ida is expected to transition to a strong extratropical storm later today, then move off the U.S. Southeast coast by Thursday. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast from Georgia to North Carolina beginning Thursday, as the counter-clockwise flow of air around Ida's extratropical version brings winds of 25 - 35 mph to the coast.

Joining the fun on Thursday may be another extratropical storm (Invest 98L), currently spinning over the Atlantic a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. This disturbance is under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, and will not be able to develop today. However, wind shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Wednesday through Thursday, and the storm may begin to acquire some subtropical traits as it moves northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast. There won't be enough time for 98L to develop into a subtropical storm, since by Thursday night it will be interacting with the remains of Ida, which will bring prohibitively high wind shear over 98L.

Figure 1. Estimated precipitation for Ida, from the Mobile, Alabama radar.

Figure 2. Observed vs. predicted water levels at Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans). The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it peaked at 5.5 feet above normal between 8 - 10 pm EST last night, and is now falling. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

El Salvador floods kill at least 130
Heavy rains that began on Thursday due to tropical disturbance 96E have killed at least 130 people in El Salvador, with 60 people still missing. The flooding hit the capital of San Salvador and rural areas to the east. The heavy rains were due to tropical disturbance 96E, which formed off the coast of El Salvador on Wednesday, November 4. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the disturbance pulled large quantities of moist, Pacific air over the coastal mountains in El Salvador, dumping steady rains of up two inches over central El Salvador, Thursday through Friday. On Saturday evening, November 7, an extremely intense thunderstorm complex developed over central El Salvador, dumping up to 17.4" (442 mm) of rain on the slopes of the Chichontepec volcano just east of the capital of San Salvador. Huge mudslides rumbled down the mountain, burying the the town of Verapaz, some 30 miles (48 km) east of San Salvador.

Figure 3. Collapsed bridge at Santa Cruz La Libertad, El Salvador. Image credit: Wunderphotographer DiegoSagrera

This weekend's flooding disaster was the second deadliest weather disaster in El Salvador history. The deadliest was from Category 5 Hurricane Mitch, which killed 240 people in 1998. Ranking third is Category 1 Hurricane Stan of 2005, which brought heavy rains that killed at least 72 people. El Salvador is very vulnerable to flash flooding, since the nation is the second most deforested country in the Americas, next to Haiti. Approximately 85% - 90% of the nation's forests have been destroyed since the 1960s, and the rate of destruction--now 1.7% per year--has accelerated since 2000. Most deforestation in El Salvador results from the country's high population that relies heavily on the collection of fuel wood and subsistence hunting and agriculture. Although the government has protected areas of forest, forestry laws go unenforced due to lack of funds and management. Salvanatura.org, the Ecological Foundation of El Salvador, is working on efforts to help protect the forests of El Salvador from continued destruction. Expect to hear of more frequent flooding disasters in El Salvador in the coming decades, as the country loses more of its forests, and as global warming brings an increase in heavy precipitation events due to higher amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere.

Figure 4. Rainfall for the period 7 am Saturday, November 7, through 7 am Sunday, November 8, over El Salvador. Rainfall amounts in excess of 300 mm (about 12 inches, black colors) occurred over central El Salvador, near the capital of San Salvador. Image credit: El Salvador Weather Service (SNET).

For those interested in making a donation to assist in disaster relief for El Salvador, Portlight.org has a Paypal donation page set up for this. All funds raised will be forwarded to José Luis Escobar Alas, Catholic Archbishop of San Salvador, and used to assist flooding victims at the discretion of the Archbishop.

Jeff Masters

Tropical depression IDA (DiegoSagrera)

Debris on the bridge that takes you to Rosario de mora from Litoral road.(RN6S)This is why we have so much damage to our bridges, debris accumulates under the bridge and blocks the flow of water, the water finds new paths over or around the bridge thus damaging it.

Tropical Storm Ida (FatdaddyMead)

Pensacola Beach Fishing Pier as Ida approaches.

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51. beell 3:53 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: STormW did you look at the steering maps.....i don't get it.....has steering changed that much without the maps updating...HELP! Tim, those steering maps are way too high up. We're looking at a very low level feature. Surface ridging is building in behind Ida and kinda pushing her along to the east. Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

52. Tazmanian 3:53 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
i give the nhc a C- on the good job on the track and a A + on the winds Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

53. PcolaDan 3:54 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Guess I a little depressed now. Ida know. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

54. ElConando 3:54 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Some of the dynamic models show 98l becoming a 40kt system, likely subtropical. Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

56. TampaSpin 3:55 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting tacoman: storm not to forget you ...you do and excellent job here keeping the people informed and so does 456...i like tampas reasoning and he will be a good forecaster down the road...i lke the diagrams he puts up but most of all i like that he backs up his forescast even though he may be wrong he sticks to his convictions...a job well done tampa..a few other ones on here drake and patrap are also god people and know what they are talking about...so in short we have some good people on here who do a very good job...my hats are off to them also...tacoman DAng taco i need to take back my last post. Thanks! Honestly your input i do like...you do make me think alot of what you say and i do appreciate your input! I know you get bashed on here way to often for no reason. Your ideas and forecast can be posted as is any other. Its up to others to decide who is right and who is wrong. Honestly i enjoy your post and input. Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

57. ElConando 3:55 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting StormW: Let me clarify...where was initial development, and what direction do they usually go in November? SC carribean, they usually go N to NE. Member Since: Septiembre 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

58. TampaSpin 3:56 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting beell: Tim, those steering maps are way too high up. We're looking at a very* low level feature. Surface ridging is building in behind Ida and kinda pushing her along to the east.* I think i posted the lower level. Take a look at it......:) Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

59. jurakantaino 3:57 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Is 98L becomes an storm the so call low "el niño seasson, will end up an average or a little above average season,,, quite a surprise folks! Member Since: Julio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

63. beell 4:01 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: I think i posted the lower level. Take a look at it......:) We're talking almost surface here. Under the CIMSS charts Check a couple of frames from the GFS 10 meter Strong surface ridging behind Ida. Check the low level stratus behind Ida. If you want to assign it a level, call it 925mb. Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

64. icmoore 4:02 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Good morning Storm, Flood, Ike, Tampa, and everybody else here. I don't think perfection exists anywhere on earth really, does it, unless maybe you have a crystal ball and if you do PLEASE tell me where you got it so I can get one too :) Hoping for some rain today or tonight here in(Melrose, FL) near Gainesville. I think I'll go water the plants that always works LOL. Member Since: Julio 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

66. icmoore 4:05 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Thank you Storm it's good to see your smiling face as well :) Member Since: Julio 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

67. beell 4:06 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Hey bird lady. ) Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

68. icmoore 4:07 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Sorry beell didn't see you or I would have remembered there is a little perfection in the world LOL. Good morning, good to see you. Member Since: Julio 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

69. hurricanejunky 4:08 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
I agree that the NHC is good overall but definitely not perfect, as Reed was trying to illustrate. They always seem to screw up intensity forecasting. It's almost like a portion of their staff don't realize how conditions affect TC intensity. Instinctively, most people who are at least somewhat experienced at tracking or forecasting tropical systems have a feeling for intensity. These guys are the NHC! It's almost like the national security adviser not being able to imagine planes flying into buildings. Jeez... Member Since: Agosto 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875

71. beell 4:09 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting icmoore: Sorry beell didn't see you or I would have remembered there is a little perfection in the world LOL. Good morning, good to see you. Don't know bout that, but you did bring some perfection to my morning with that (and a out-loud laugh)! Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

72. TampaSpin 4:11 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting icmoore: Good morning Storm, Flood, Ike, Tampa, and everybody else here. I don't think perfection exists anywhere on earth really, does it, unless maybe you have a crystal ball and if you do PLEASE tell me where you got it so I can get one too :) Hoping for some rain today or tonight here in(Melrose, FL) near Gainesville. I think I'll go water the plants that always works LOL. :) sorry i was surfing....LOL Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

73. stormpetrol 4:14 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
the remnant low Ida appears to be moving a little south of due east, anyone else notice this? Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

75. icmoore 4:19 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Glad I could bring you a laugh to you this morning, beell :) Hi Tampa! No apologies necessary I do that all the time. BBL my not so perfect dog is barking at the door to go out :) My apologies to DrNo :) Member Since: Julio 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

77. StormChaser81 4:22 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Member Since: Agosto 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

78. TampaSpin 4:23 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting StormW: We know that generally, where IDA developed, that storms usually per se travel northward or NE. Anybody else want to take a stab at why she came NW? Larger area of HIGH Pressure built in to the NORTH of Ida and she came up the WEst side as the trough pushed the HIGH or eroded the High to the EAST! Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

79. JRRP 4:24 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
waaooo!!!! 98L? Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

81. stansimms 4:24 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting P451: Since Ida's birth: Track: A Intensity: F Timing: F This one is pretty straight forward, folks. Dynamic setup = large forecasting errors. It's expected. It's also okay to observe the outcome. Never did understand the "NHC WAS 100% CORRECT HATERS FALL BACK" stuff that goes on here. But, well, whatever...I should learn to ignore it. Throughout this forecast the past week we were told: There is no hybrid GOM system that's a trough. Ida will never do anything. Ida did not (will not) absorb the hybrid. 96E has nothing to do with Ida or the hybrid. There will be no merged extratropical system. There will be no effects northward (tennessee valley to the mid-atlantic). Well, those points were wrong. The interesting thing is those that pointed out those were all players and possibilities backed up our POV with hand-drawn maps, weather loops, and subsequent proof. Those who just say "you're wrong." never even bothered to. Facts (perceived by myself): 96E injected moisture twice into the BOC hybrid. 96E was eventually pulled into Ida just NE of Belize and without that Ida likely never makes it above a minimal Cat 1 due to dry air. Without 96E the BOC system is weaker and Ida likely stays over Nicaragua and disippates due to lack of steering. Without 96E and the hybrid BOC system dry air makes it into Ida near the Yucatan and disrupts it (both systems kept providing moisture on Ida's west side isolating it from the dry air). Without the hybrid injecting energy into Ida as it neared the Gulf coast Ida likely falls apart quicker - instead of putting on that final burst near the coast. Etc...... Ida absorbed multiple systems breathing life into her. She may do it one more time: Invest 98. She may ride up the East Coast as a nor-easter in the end. Would it surprise anyone given her life so far? who cares? they're getting paid to do this. you're not. end of story.

82. stormpetrol 4:26 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting StormW: #77 and #78. Ok, why? (This will point out something) Hello StormW, Will the remnant low of Ida take a more SE track now?just wondering. Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

84. StormChaser81 4:28 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting StormW: #77 and #78. Ok, why? (This will point out something) Quoting StormW: #77 and #78. Ok, why? (This will point out something) Because they usually ride up the sides of high and the SW gulf had low pressure system, so it road up through the both of them and was pushed west by the other low flow in the gulf. also the other system in the pacific kept it in its place to move northward. Member Since: Agosto 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

85. stormpetrol 4:29 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting StormW: I'll have that in my forecast...haven't got that far yet. Still pulling up websites for analysis. Thanks, looking forward to it as usual. Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

86. pearlandaggie 4:32 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
wtf is going on with tacoman? did he find his lithium? LOL Member Since: Septiembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

87. pcbdragon 4:32 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting StormW: #77 and #78. Ok, why? (This will point out something) It went between systems on both sides and acted like the long island express but not as fast. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 133

88. TampaSpin 4:33 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting StormW: #77 and #78. Ok, why? (This will point out something) She was pulled to the north because of a stalled trough that was drapped thru Florida with high pressure in the Caribbean from the Bermuda high. Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

89. peejodo 4:39 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting StormW: We know that generally, where IDA developed, that storms usually per se travel northward or NE. Anybody else want to take a stab at why she came NW? There was a high off the east CONUS with high winds pushing west. Member Since: Febrero 13, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 77

92. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:43 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
212 WHXX01 KWBC 101451 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1451 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20091110 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 091110 1200 091111 0000 091111 1200 091112 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 24.7N 61.3W 25.9N 63.2W 27.5N 64.8W 29.3N 65.8W BAMD 24.7N 61.3W 25.9N 63.7W 27.2N 66.0W 28.7N 66.6W BAMM 24.7N 61.3W 25.9N 63.5W 27.6N 65.7W 29.5N 66.6W LBAR 24.7N 61.3W 26.1N 62.9W 27.6N 64.1W 29.5N 64.3W SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 43KTS DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 43KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 091112 1200 091113 1200 091114 1200 091115 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 30.9N 66.3W 34.8N 68.3W 37.8N 72.3W 37.4N 72.1W BAMD 30.6N 65.2W 35.3N 58.9W 35.6N 48.2W 30.9N 31.9W BAMM 31.5N 66.3W 36.3N 65.8W 40.4N 69.0W 43.6N 67.1W LBAR 31.4N 63.2W 33.4N 58.4W 31.8N 51.9W 29.7N 44.1W SHIP 49KTS 61KTS 55KTS 34KTS DSHP 49KTS 61KTS 55KTS 34KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 61.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT LATM12 = 23.7N LONM12 = 59.6W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 10KT LATM24 = 22.6N LONM24 = 57.6W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

93. TampaSpin 4:43 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
BAM MODELS CAn you imagine what the Joe B. forecast is going to be with these current BAM models...ROFLMAO Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:45 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
INV/98/L MARK 24.8N/60.4W Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

95. pearlandaggie 4:46 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
93. Tim, how do you get those hamweather images to post? I have not been able to figure it out! Member Since: Septiembre 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

96. Floodman 4:47 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting CaptnDan142: I guess military payscales have changed significantly since I was in. Never heard it referred to as 'the big bucks' before.... Unless it was by someone whose main job skill is asking "Would you like fries with that?". All in the perspective I guess. BTW: "Their" lives - not "There" lives. Sorry, Captn Dan, but you're tilting at windmills with THAT one... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

97. SQUAWK 4:47 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: BAM MODELS CAn you imagine what the Joe B. forecast is going to be with these current BAM models...ROFLMAO OMG!!!! IT'S THE BALTIMORE DISASTER!!! Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

98. Floodman 4:49 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting icmoore: Good morning Storm, Flood, Ike, Tampa, and everybody else here. I don't think perfection exists anywhere on earth really, does it, unless maybe you have a crystal ball and if you do PLEASE tell me where you got it so I can get one too :) Hoping for some rain today or tonight here in(Melrose, FL) near Gainesville. I think I'll go water the plants that always works LOL. My favorite nature photographer! How are you today, dear? Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

99. beell 4:50 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Well, have a good day all. Hope you figure it out, TS Zoom Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

100. largeeyes 4:50 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Local mets are expecting remnants to IDA to cause a new low to develop off the GA/FL coast and then give us tropical-storm like conditions tomrrow into thursday(we're in eastern NC). Sounds like its gonna get pretty soggy and blustery. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

101. SQUAWK 4:51 PM GMT en Noviembre 10, 2009
Quoting CaptnDan142: I guess military payscales have changed significantly since I was in. Never heard it referred to as 'the big bucks' before.... Unless it was by someone whose main job skill is asking "Would you like fries with that?". All in the perspective I guess. BTW: "Their" lives - not "There" lives. Well, actually, the kids on the flight deck of a carrier that are hauling tie-down chains on their back get paid less that the "fries with that" crowd. Member Since: Diciembre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

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