Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
Light Rain and gusty from the North. I am one block from the Gulf. The Gulf is slick as glass off of Beach Blvd. The water is not even over the piers at the boat ramp.
Winds seemed worse about an hour ago. I think the airport was getting gusts around 40mph at that time.
Besides the airmass, also partly due to:
Thanks for keeping us up to date on what's happening there. Hope everything turns out well and that she doesn't get too severe for anyone. We have dish network and cable here. I remember when we woke up in the middle of the night to an approaching Humberto the Dish stayed on until the power went out. The cable went out much sooner. And after Ike we came home on generator power the Dish did just fine. Cable came back on about a week after the power. Lol. And they advertise get cable satellite go out in bad weather. Geesh!
Neither me, atmo, but I would expect to see 500-1000 J/kg SBCape get pretty close to shore.
The stats from this site are not that impressive for the CMC. I don't know exactly how they calculate the error.
yea I am sure it did bad in intensity, made pressure readings and all that...I just remeber middle of last week looking at all the models and that one pointed right to the AL and MS border while the rest had that big right turn.
I believe it. That trailing tail down to Cuba seems to point to this storm dumping more rain and possible tornadoes over the whole peninsula, with SWFL and SEFL getting the worst of it. As the storm move east.
I remember that too, and some other runs of CMC that were not as good, too.
ok I just had surgery (bone graph) and on meds, so my comment sounded bad.
there is always something new to learn!
The 6:00 track had it going east
I remember during Katrina, I had evacuated to 20 miles west of Meridian (not the best choice :-) they were saying on the radio that they thought the eye was passing over Jackson, but outside, the clouds were coming straight from the north, so I said, I think it is over Meridian... Needless to say, it was over Meridian...
Kinda looks like a wimpy Noel (during transition):
It did excellent on the 8th but yesterday on the 9th not as well.
Even a broken clock is right twice per day.
Ocean Springs has had no house shaking gusts. Not even close.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO/CONVECTIVE WIND PROBABILITIES MAINLY FOR
LATER TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH THE ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM
IDA...REFERENCE NHC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR LATEST DETAILS. IN SPITE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES/AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...00Z
OBSERVED RAOBS FROM NEW ORLEANS/TALLAHASSEE CONTINUE TO REFLECT A
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS INLAND AHEAD OF IDA...ALTHOUGH A MORE
MOISTURE-RICH MARITIME AIRMASS MAY REACH COASTAL PORTIONS OF AL/FL
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. RISK FOR A TORNADO/CONVECTIVE
WIND CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND OF IDA/LIMITED OUTER BAND CONVECTION AND AN
INITIALLY STABLE INLAND AIRMASS ALL IMPLY SUCH A THREAT WILL REMAIN
LOW.
Code Yellow north of Puerto Rico.....somebody said the Tropics was done.....but, they didn't tell mother to go home...
The one I am reading in Gulf Park estates is steady 8-10 with ocassional gust in the mid 20s.
I am seating upstairs in my office with a window open that faces SE and the curtains are barely moving
It seems Tampa and Naples Bays are in for worse weather overall than Mobile Bay.... though sustained winds are likely to be lower .
Hows your power holding out, I work near north Pensacola, just wondering if we will have power tomorrow?
Wait, you didn't notice the 80 MPH winds recorded at Ocean Springs?
By this station:
Didn't feel the 200 mph gust?
(Time for some QC coding at the WU...)
Waveland MS
US 90 West of MS 609
Ocean Springs MS
00
FXUS62 KKEY 100141
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
841 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009
AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN A
LARGE-SCALE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT HAS SET UP BETWEEN A LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC MEAN RIDGE AND TROPICAL STORM IDA. MOST DEVELOPING CELLS
WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS.
CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SLOWLY
STARTING TO TREND DOWNWARD...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BIG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST SHOULD STAY
THERE OVERNIGHT.
Not a flicker here yet!
Drak,
When do you think that tail will come through our area. I am supposed to fly out of PBI tomorrow late morning. Hopefully no delays.
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index