Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Nov 10, 12:54 am EST
Fair
56 °F
(13 °C)
Humidity: 72 %
Wind Speed: N 5 MPH
Barometer: 30.30" (1025.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 47 °F (8 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
True! Amen to that! Well said.
Amen! SELA dodged the bullet again! Sometimes I just wonder how much luck we have left.
GWPB: are your gusts out of the SSE also?
French people in the 1700's:
"OHAI! Lets colonize this place thats 100 feet under sea level because we're so smart" They should be glad they survived this long. One day the doomcasters and CMC model will be right. Maybe not in our lifetimes, but one day...
"Perfect storm two" was possible I guess.. Never likely. Glad you admit your error in forecasting, for that I give you credit. Seems to be exactly what I expected though maybe a tad under 5-10mph or so. Could still tighten up a bit though. ( Not Ida, the gradient ) for the time being, gusts to 25 here in NW mobile ..
G'nite, y'all!
G'nite!
I am near Gulf breeze and I respectfully disagree with your assessment. Having been through all the hurricanes in this area since 1985, I can equivatly state Winds have been no where near hurricane strength. Maybe one 50 MPH gust. Otherwise 30-35 MPH.
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
The winds diminish substantially when you go back into Gulf Breeze. I was going back and forth between the two for a good portion of the day, and noticed the rather large difference every time I went across the bridge.
Thanks Pat for the link. I guess the remnants are going through GA and out to sea.
I need rain here at home badly. I guess I was wishing.
Link
I bring this up because if they rerun the clip, take a close look at the roofs on those two houses. They are "hurricane roofs". I know there is another name for them but that's what I've always called them.
Both of those houses were still standing after Katrina. In fact, only four houses were left standing on my street after the storm and ALL of them had this type of roof. When I finally get the chance to build my dream home, guess what kind of roof I plan to put on! :-)
The exposed center of what ls left of IDA is located just offshore about 45 miles S of Mobile. That exposed center should come onshore in a few hours. The system continues to slow down in forward motion, which definitely signals that the long awaited right turn (NE to E/NE) will commence shortly. IDA's remnants will prove to be a significant rain event across AL, GA, SC and NC over the next couple of days. Nasty weather as the extratropical system is expected to emerge off the GA/SC by late Wednesday into Thursday.
I am hoping that IDA's remnants will not stall because of the flooding potential in those already satuated areas, especially in Atlanta area. Once all this mess shifts to the Atlantic, a much more drier and seasonable cool air mass will evade the SE US behind the exratropical system beginning on Thursday.
Have a great day everyone.
Not quite sure why it matters at this point. The eye, if you can even call it that anymore, is more exposed than Pamela Anderson's chest right now. Shear has taken its toll on Ida and she'll be nothing more than just another Gulf Coast thunderstorm before too much longer. Its not like this thing is going to hug the coastline and pick up strength.
I live close enough to the beach. I'm in the FL panhandle.
No need to be so condescending...
Glad you noticed that too.
For those interested here is a good loop.
PerfectStormDisasterCaster
to the "caster" list.
LOL.....good one!
Nice pic of IDA's COC on JSL just south and offshore of the Mississippi/Alabama line.
Actually, I'm 12 hours away from finally completing a bachelor's in emergency management. Thought about going for either a masters or PhD in meteorology. Seems to be a good combination of degrees in my situation.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number SIX
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB03-2009
11:30 AM IST November 10 2009
=======================================
SUBJECT: Deep Depression over Arabian Sea
Cyclone alert: Yellow message.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB03-2009 over east central Arabian Sea moved further northwards and lays centered over eastcentral Arabian Sea near 13.5N 70.5E, about 470 km west-northwest of Mangalore, 420 km southwest of Goa and 670 km south-southwest of Mumbai.
The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a northerly direction for some more time and then north-northeastwards and cross south Gujarat and north Maharashtra coast between Mahuva and Dahanu by early hours on November 12th
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
06 HRS: 14.5N 70.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 15.5N 70.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
18 HRS: 17.0N 71.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
42 HRS: 21.5N 72.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
66 HRS: 25.5N 74.5E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
Viewing: 601 - 651
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index