Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Still not high tide yet...makes me wonder about biloxi because Back Bay was very high when I left work at 330.
URNT12 KNHC 100505
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 10/04:44:40Z
B. 29 deg 22 min N
088 deg 46 min W
C. 850 mb 1410 m
D. 39 kt
E. 111 deg 28 nm
F. 196 deg 48 kt
G. 121 deg 54 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C / 1522 m
J. 21 C / 1524 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0811A IDA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 02:26:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 05:01:00Z
;
Rainfall totals seem to be highest around Foley. It wouldn't surprise me to see a flash flood warning there.
My mother-in-law lives on Back Bay. She was fine as of a couple of hours ago. There new house is about 10 feet in the air.
Highest wind not QC'ed out, 58 knots NW of center. And, yes, peak winds inside the Chandeleurs.
No radar and little of significance on satellite near her center nor at the peak winds. No static surface wind platform anywhere near peak winds...
Your winds with a south component will not be on shore for a while yet.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
lastest storm totals as of 512z
TCCA23 KNHC 100020
STDWCA
SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...TS IDA
MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
10/0015 UTC 29.2N 88.5W 355/15 5.6 IN 3.7 IN
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 2.0 TO 3.3 IN 2.5 TO 3.7 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 1.8 TO 2.4 IN 0.9 TO 2.4 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 1.4 TO 2.0 IN 0.5 TO 1.1 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.9 TO 2.1 IN 0.0 TO 0.5 IN
...LEGEND...
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)
DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT
LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS
MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART
LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)
FORECASTER NELSON
NNNN
We've had a couple of power dips, but we still have our power. I have friends north of Pensacola that have no power right now.
Kids are in bed with glow sticks... still not asleep, though. LOL
You mean Reed "Perfect Storm of the Century" Zone ... hasn't been on. Yea ... NO SURPRISE there! Put him and JFV in a room together.
Updated: 7 sec ago
68.3 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the South
Wind Gust: 12.7 mph
Pressure: 29.70 in (Falling)
Visibility: 3.0 miles
12:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
The report seems inaccurate. Note that the peak gust is only 15mph for the entire day.
Coordinates: 29.4333N 88.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.6 mb (~ 24.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.1 mb (~ 29.47 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 230° at 17 knots (From the SW at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.2°C (~ 68.4°F)
Dew Pt: 7.7°C (~ 45.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Correct...Just look at the satellite image at post 566.
Pensacola, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 3 min 54 sec ago
70 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 28 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 40 mph
Gusts at TS strength, as expected.
PWS readings are sometimes suspect. Didn't make sense to me either.
I don't really like using them, but they are good when official stations aren't reporting (or when they send in bad information).
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
there is no way that nakes swirl is 60mph anymore. it's going to just stall there and die.
Good night and good morning cyberspace.:)
well I was banned :P
because its not making a landfall! The tropical rodation itself stalled near the mouth of mississippii... sorryt kinda drunk and full of crow
LOL
off topic post (?) ha I dunno why I was banned, but it's whatever
east central FL 10min wind avg 3mph from SSE
Viewing: 551 - 601
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