Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua
Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.
Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.
Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.
Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.
Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 — Blog Index
Following that blob of heavy convection around 16.5N/83.5W, is that your thinking too?
Seems like it keeps reforming to the east, nearer the water. Nearly off land now. MIMIC
Yes the Saturday forecast by NHC was really off due partly by the change in direction more north....
Actually Andrew's center went over what is now known as Cutler Bay (now a city was just an unincorporated area known as Cutler Ridge back then), halfway between Miami and Homestead, 15 miles in either direction.
yea..I mean its only reasonable to think if you are a low pressure you head to areas where its easier (path of least resistance)
Is it raining there in the caymans?
Hurricane return periods are the frequency at which a certain intensity or category of hurricane can be expected within 75 nm (86 statute miles) of a given location. In simpler terms, a return period of 20 years for a Category 3 or greater hurricane means that on average during the previous 100 years, a Category 3 or greater hurricane passed within 75 nm (86 miles) of that location about five times. We would then expect, on average, an additional five Category 3 or greater hurricanes within that radius over the next 100 years.
You may be correct about an earlier Recon flight, last night AF302 was prepositioned to Homestead.
000
URNT10 KNHC 052347
97779 23474 50259 81100 23800 99005 1058/ /8015
RMK AF302 WXWXA 091105221152302 OB 05
LAST REPORT
Unless it will be taking part in the airshow this weekend at Homestead.
1978 Just about all of the passes have been created by weather events. Charlie made a new on in North Captiva when he visited.
Coastal Change Hazards: Hurricanes and Extreme Storms
The panhandle is the convergence point of the NHC forecast, the gale system, and the models. I'm thinking as of now that this is the area in line for the greatest effects of either Ida, the hybrid system or both.
Even if Ida does not move directly into the area, the moisture fetch on the back side could stream into the Panhandle.
That was my point, the person I responded to said that Tampa needed to not worry or watch
I did not say that, I do think people need to watch this
I do not read the area forecast discussion for the USA. Only the NHC forecast discussion and I think the intensity forecast in the NHC discussion is slightly underestimated. But I do not blame them for underestimating Ida, they are being conservative since intensity forecast are not that easy.
AOI
AOI
Check out this webcam of downtown, Grand Cayman
Oh my bad.....don't put BAP on ignore then....LOL....sorry.....LMAO
lol thanks I was like huh?
I figured you might have read the post wrong, maybe it was the way I worded it
That's interesting...thanks for the update...you always seem to find obscure, but pertinent info on stuff!
Quite possibly the last storm to fly in for the season, so why not in my book...especially considering that there is essentially no chance of it not hitting land somewhere.
Couldn't agree more... Awaiting NHC update at 10AM or in 15 min or so... to see what they have to say.
What if Ida becomes absorbed into the system. Shear intensifies the perfect storm through baroclinic forcing. Either way, rain, and lots of rain heading for the Gulf coast.
We are in Key West watchin this storm...I'm new here and tryin to learn still so forgive me if it's already been asked but - chances of Ida hittin the Keys? My parents are in Ft. Myers, we are tryin to figure out if they come here or us go there if this ultimately hits Fl. I love readin all yalls posts! Great site..
Viewing: 2001 - 2051
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 — Blog Index