Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT en Noviembre 05, 2009

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Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.

Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.


Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.


Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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137. IKE
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Quoting mossyhead:
Just to figure out what i am seeing, it shows shear will be increasing into the weekend?


That model displays Surface winds..not Winds aloft.
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Quoting reedzone:


Plus, Ida ain't gonna rip apart and get absorbed, it's on FLAT TERRITORY lol, it'll weaken, but likely get into the Western Carribean as a TD and could strengthen given the possible conditions. Tacoman is all talk/nonsense, surprised he was never banned for his actions.


Reed, have you read the NHC discussions? Per last night's 10PM EST:

RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY WHEN THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.


You do realize parts of Ida will be over this terrain, not the flat northeastern portions?

Not to defend taco salad but Ida isn't exactly passing over the Florida everglades...
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50-70kt shear over the gulf on that 12z run.
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Quoting hurricane23:
12z GFS stalls IDA in the gulf and dissipates it likely impart do to southwesterly shear from the upper trough to its west.


That sounds just about right for this time of year.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
BAP......i should put you in charge of polls on my blog.....LOL.....you would be great at that......


lol thanks

you know here is something I was thinking, it is entirely possible that whatever Ida is, still has large impacts somewhere due to an interaction with a cold front or whatever

Like Wilma here in Central Florida in 2005, 50mph wind gusts and 50 degree temps

Basically what I mean is the pressure gradient between Ida and whatever sort of other weather features are present could create havoc in their own right, meaning we dont need Ida to be a hurricane to create some issues on land
Doug...check your mail!
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I recentered the loop....
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
12z GFS stalls IDA in the gulf and dissipates it likely impart do to southwesterly shear from the upper trough to its west.
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Quoting mikatnight:
How many people think November should be a "no-poll" month?



Now thats just wrong!


lol


Brian. Call me.
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Quoting tornadofan:


How can that be? The land is flat there. The satellite must be wrong.


Still land which causes friction. Plus no source of warm water for fuel.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


hi,
could you tell what is the difference between the first two images?



A great page to Learn about that is the NHC Model Overview,here.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Not looking so hot from land interaction.


Actually, it is holding it's own. Core? Check. Banding? Check. Outflow? Check.

The intensity is expected to decrease. But as a tropical storm, can it survive. It's still only moving 7 mph!!!
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Quoting JamesSA:


Exactly! That's what I told her to make it 'sink in' after she it wasn't her fault because the tools were too low to the ground to see.
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BAP......i should put you in charge of polls on my blog.....LOL.....you would be great at that......
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting Patrap:
GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model
Just to figure out what i am seeing, it shows shear will be increasing into the weekend?
Member Since: Julio 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
111. LOL...too funny :)
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Quoting tornadofan:


How can that be? The land is flat there. The satellite must be wrong.


No, land may be flat, but is still weakening the storm.. Probably a TD when it emerges back over the waters. Not saying if, because flat land won't tear a storm as bad as mountains. I have full confidence in believing that Ida will survive the trip.
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Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane IDA 12 Z
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



12Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





hi,
could you tell what is the difference between the first two images?
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#106 - Is that the only way you could figue to get new power tools was by throwing them under the car as she was backing out?
Member Since: Octubre 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting StormChaser81:


Not looking so hot from land interaction.


How can that be? The land is flat there. The satellite must be wrong.
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Quoting bjdsrq:
Damage Report.... Hurricane "Robyn" just pulled out of the garage w/o looking and ran over my power tools I was using in the driveway. :-(

It is a good thing they were just power tools and not children playing in the driveway.
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Not looking so hot from land interaction.
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Quoting mikatnight:
How many people think November should be a "no-poll" month?


:D LOL!
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Quoting CycloneOz:
POLL:

1) Ida weakens, dissipates and remains just a rainmaker.

2) Ida's core survives, strengthens, but then weakens as it gets sheared apart.

3) Ida's weakens, but the core survives. It then strengthens into a hurricane, perhaps a major hurricane and in doing so, defeats the shear that may affect it, and then hits the CONUS.


Those are too specific, what if I feel it wont do any of those things

I think it will survive and it will become a hurricane again, but not sure about a major or it hitting the CONUS
Damage Report.... Hurricane "Robyn" just pulled out of the garage w/o looking and ran over my power tools I was using in the driveway. :-(
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How many people think November should be a "no-poll" month?
Member Since: Octubre 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
89. And thank you, too. From here on, so not to clog up blog -- I'm lurking and sending mental thank you's, just want you to know people do appreciate all the useful info to help folks w/ poss. storm prep.
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Quoting tacoman:
p451 whats your problem man ...just trying to get the info out to the public not trying to scare the hell out of the fla people over nothing...ida is done man..learn about the weather before you try to forecast it pal...you are pathetic..tacoman
***POOF-A-RONI!****
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POLL:

1) Ida weakens, dissipates and remains just a rainmaker.

2) Ida's core survives, strengthens, but then weakens as it gets sheared apart.

3) Ida's weakens, but the core survives. It then strengthens into a hurricane, perhaps a major hurricane and in doing so, defeats the shear that may affect it, and then hits the CONUS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting NRAamy:
54.


can I just go on the record that I have absolutely no connection to this person whatsoever....

back to Ida....

Nice to meet ya. Ouch that hurt. Sorry will stay on the storm.
Member Since: Septiembre 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model
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Quoting Weather456:
So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.



Based on history it's probability of survival is 80%.
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Quoting StormW:


Then he should read my synopsis.


LMAO +1
"November hurricanes hitting the United States are even more rare. Since 1900, 4 hurricanes have hit the United States and all have been Category 1 and all hit Florida!

The last November hurricane was Hurricane Kate in 1985. At one point, Kate was a Category 3 in the Gulf of Mexico. It is the only major hurricane ever observed in the Gulf during the month of November. It weakend to a Category 1 when it made landfall in the Florida Panhandle."

from, "David Bernard's Blog" (CBS, ch 4)
Member Since: Octubre 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Post 76

No problem it has a lot of good info.
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http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ213&warncounty=TXC201&firewxzone=TXZ213&local_p lace1=Houston+TX&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook

NWS for Houston/Galveston

......

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE DETAILS
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DEPENDS ON WHETHER AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE GULF AND WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. SHOULD AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF...STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. THIS MAY
CAUSE TIDES TO INCREASE TO WHERE COASTAL FLOODING MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE ESPECIALLY ALONG BOLIVAR PENINSULA. FORECASTERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO AND PROVIDE UPDATES FOR ANY
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

.....
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
715 am CST Thursday Nov 5 2009

Long term...
the short version of the extended forecast is increasing rain
chances Sunday night through Tuesday. The problem that the forecast
is much more complicated than that. A piece of an upper trough off
the coast of California is breaking off. This low will swing across
the mex/US border towards the Gulf Coast. A weakness will develop
between this low and upper ridge that will be moving eastward. This
will allow plume of moisture to move into the area beginning Sunday
evening. Started ramping up probability of precipitation during this time. At this time...stayed
relatively close to mex with likely probability of precipitation Sun night through Monday night
but may need to go even higher as the event nears. Then...the
question of how much influence will come from Ida or remnants of
it. Run to run constancy has been low on this aspect and therefore
confidence is not too high.


Tropical Storm Ida is currently near the coast of Nicaragua and
moving northwest at 7 miles per hour. Official forecast from NHC depicts a wider Cone
of uncertainty than normal due to the lack of model consensus in the
extended. The latest model runs 06z show similar spread in model
tracks. In general...Ida or the remnants of should be near the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. From that point...upper
level trough evolution will determine its movement. Refer to
www.NHC.NOAA.Gov for more information.


Meffer
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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