Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT en Noviembre 05, 2009

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Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.

Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.


Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.


Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Good evening all

I've been out of communication for a few days while travelling but relieved to see that Ida is stuck onshore for now. This one could have been a major if it had managed to stay offshore while moving to the N.

It is still very close to the coast though and a slight jog to the East would place it back over water.

This one needs to be watched very closely IMO
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That dry slot is the center, and not because the eye is clearing out either. Storm W was spot on. Shear has pushed the cloud tops off to the NE a tad, right on the forecast points.
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I don't know though, stormwatcherCI...there is an absence of character and a vacuousness that is rather familiar...perhaps you are correct. Either way, it's disgusting
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Link
look at this rainbow link, center appears to moved have slightly offshore and is commencing what I think to be NNE movement, I could be wrong , we'll see the 4 pm update says.
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
Based on current movement, Ida should reemerge over water sometime late Friday or early Saturday. It's my belief that this track will take it slightly right of the current NHC track which I'm guessing will continue to shift right. Right now, I don't see any way this will make any further west than the Florida panhandle. Somewhere on the west coast of Florida between Pensacola and Naples would be my most likely spots for eventual landfall. The intensity forecast is problematic however and Ida could hit Florida as anywhere from a weak Tropical Storm to a Cat 2. IMHO.

I love your reasoning there bro does the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane ring a bell?
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why would someone use Portlight's name? Even I know that's just wrong....
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581. xcool
BenBIogger hi
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Floodman:


No, the use of Portlight as a handle is far too objectionable to be JFV...

I hope you are right but so was Presidential whatever it was.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Eventually, I'd say it dissipates ....=D


really , don't they all at some point! its where they go before they dissipate thats the problem. And the reason many big brains are currently attached to this blog and the sat loops...
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Quoting presslord:
Unless and until Portlight2 makes their identity known to me, please assume they are not connected to the organization...

It's probably the latest incarnation of JFV/WS/Showercurtain.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
JFV ???


No, the use of Portlight as a handle is far too objectionable to be JFV...

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Quoting rareaire:
Where is the: dry spot, wet spot, eye, coc really are moot ! where is it going is the million dollar question.

Eventually, I'd say it dissipates ....=D
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting CaneWarning:


Ah, my hero! LOL
Quite heroe, for iternational relations,having the advantage to see Russia from her back yard !
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Quoting Portlight2:
hello there, presslord, no, i am not one of the leading administrators of that non-profit organization; however, i am a frequent contributor of portlight.org. there, i will not change my screename. why should i, that rideculous.


Pffft.
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Here's what I mean about shear forecasts...this is the CMC shear cast for the same period, 120 hours out:



This reflects low and conducive shear values across nearly the entire GOM
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Where is the: dry spot, wet spot, eye, coc really are moot ! where is it going is the million dollar question.
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Based on current movement, Ida should reemerge over water sometime late Friday or early Saturday. It's my belief that this track will take it slightly right of the current NHC track which I'm guessing will continue to shift right. Right now, I don't see any way this will make any further west than the Florida panhandle. Somewhere on the west coast of Florida between Pensacola and Naples would be my most likely spots for eventual landfall. The intensity forecast is problematic however and Ida could hit Florida as anywhere from a weak Tropical Storm to a Cat 2. IMHO.
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Quoting Floodman:


If you are not affiliated with the Portlight organization then your use of this handle is offensive
JFV ???
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I have been seeing the center never really making it past the coastline all day. I thought it was just an illusion this morning. I am convinced the storm has been moving slowly to the north for several hours.
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Quoting presslord:
Unless and until Portlight2 makes their identity known to me, please assume they are not connected to the organization...


noticed it too, thinking shower curtains for some reason

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IDA Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop


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Quoting xcool:
BenBIogger !

Yes?
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Quoting Floodman:


If you are not affiliated with the Portlight organization then your use of this handle is offensive

well before we jump on the guy .. portlight isnt exactly an unknown word .. has someone tried to WUmail the guy to let him know? ...now if i missed him asking for money for portlight then burn him at the stake until then dont bum rush him lol
Member Since: Agosto 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting Jeff9641:


The center is just slightly ENE of the dry slot. It seems were all seeing the same thing. A new center position at 4PM. I think it is right of the old NHC track.

I agree.
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Quoting presslord:


To quote Sarah Palin..."You betcha!!!"


Ah, my hero! LOL
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I

Will Portlight be doing any relief work if this system makes an impact in the U.S?


To quote Sarah Palin..."You betcha!!!"
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


If this thing heads toward Florida I don't see shear being an issue until it gets close to the coast according to your shear forecast. I am not real trusting of shear forecasts this year as they've been wrong a number of times. Interesting storm, eh?


I don't trust shear forecasts more than 3-4 days out, typically; they tend to be very wrong. As for this storm, yes, I have to say it's very interesting, particularly given some of the track forecasts Ive been seeing
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Alright, I'll wait for a few more frames. Looking at ramsdis again, think I'm right again. LOL.

*** step away from the sat loops ***
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Anybody wanna takes bets on who it is?
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Quoting Portlight2:
hmmm, i see what you're talking about, but it appears to be just of to the east from there.


I
Quoting Portlight2:
very windy conditions here in cayo hueso, this afternoon.


Will Portlight be doing any relief work if this system makes an impact in the U.S?
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Quoting presslord:
Unless and until Portlight2 makes their identity known to me, please assume they are not connected to the organization...
whats going on now don't be using portlight as a cover for troll stuff thats presses job or those connected any way

lol
Member Since: Julio 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
551. 789
Quoting futuremet:


This a very complicated scenario. As much as three tropical entities could soon be interacting with each other.
very good asumption this could get serious nhc is doing very well on these features ,and by the way have you talked to oz about going out with him to see these storms i remember him inviting you
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Looking at ramsdis, I might be wrong and it might be just NE of there.
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Quoting Portlight2:
very windy conditions here in cayo hueso, this afternoon.


If you are not affiliated with the Portlight organization then your use of this handle is offensive
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Quoting presslord:
Unless and until Portlight2 makes their identity known to me, please assume they are not connected to the organization...



I concur...
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Quoting Floodman:
The wind shear forecast for 120 hours out (5 days) for the GOM and NWCarib:



See the niche above the Yucatan in line with the forecast path of Ida? Hmmm...less than 10knts


If this thing heads toward Florida I don't see shear being an issue until it gets close to the coast according to your shear forecast. I am not real trusting of shear forecasts this year as they've been wrong a number of times. Interesting storm, eh?
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Unless and until Portlight2 makes their identity known to me, please assume they are not connected to the organization...
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544. xcool
BenBIogger !
Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
One more frame should tell for sure.
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Quoting Portlight2:
nice, that's a dry-slot.


I disagree if you look at the loop. Dry slot has been there. Look at the loop.

Zoom in too. That's the eye, imo.

Link
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Quoting xcool:
NHC is right on the money.


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I think the actual COC is half onshore & half offshore.Plenty moisture to tap into, I doubt this will weaken significantly before it has the Western Caribbean to itself.
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Depth 26.C Isotherm


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential


Sea Surface Temperature
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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