Surprise tropical storm forms near the Azores; Invest 91L has potential to develop
Surprise! A 70-mph tropical storm popped up seemingly out of nowhere early this morning, in a region of the Atlantic not ordinarily prone to tropical storm formation. Tropical Storm Grace formed at 41.2° north latitude, in a remote ocean area near the Azores Islands. This is the farthest northeast an Atlantic tropical storm has ever formed since satellite observations began in the 1960s. Since 1960, only one tropical storm has formed farther north--Tropical Storm Alberto of 1988, which formed at 41.5°N, off the coast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Satellite imagery revealed that Grace formed an eyewall and well-defined eye this morning, though the storm's tropical storm-force winds did not extend out very far from the center. Last night, the center of Grace passed about 20 miles west of Ponta Delgada in the eastern Azores, which recorded sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 44 mph. Grace formed over chilly waters of about 23°C, well below the usual threshold of 26°C required for tropical storm formation. Grace's formation was aided by some very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere (-54°C at 200 mb), which made the atmosphere more unstable than usual. The storm won't be around much longer, as Grace is already over much colder waters of 21°C, and is headed towards even colder waters.
Figure 1. The storm that would later become Tropical Storm Grace passes through the Azores Islands at 14:20 UTC 10/04/09. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Invest 91
A large tropical wave near 12N 46W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and is over warm waters, 29°C, which is 3°C above the threshold typically needed to allow tropical storm formation. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. The wave is poorly organized at present, with no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should continue to track west-northwest over the next 2 - 3 days, and spread heavy rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. By Thursday, the trough of low pressure that is pulling 91L to the north should bypass the storm, allowing a high pressure ridge to build in and force 91L due west. NHC is giving 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Figure 2. latest images of Invest 91L.
Pacific typhoons
In the Philippines, the cleanup continues from Tropical Storm Parma, which hit northern Luzon Island Saturday as a Category 1 typhoon. Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, but its heavy rain is now offshore the Philippines. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 16 people in the Philippines, but did not have the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Storm chaser James Reynolds took some dangerous looking video of Parma in the Philippines.
Super Typhoon Melor became the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year over the weekend, but has weakened slightly to a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Melor is expected to recurve to the northeast and pass within 200 miles of Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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it kinda obeyed you by staying at 17N xD
Well you get my point. The disturbance as a whole has made it too far north.
MONDAY 8 P.M.
BASEBALL IN COLORADO IN OCTOBER... HOW'S THAT WORKING OUT FOR YOU?
People like me love seeing this... the baseball playoffs in Denver this weekend as one of the biggest cold shots in October in years invades. Brutal cold is likely for the games out there this weekend, and it's liable to snow during the weekend. How much? Probably light but guess what, it's a problem.
And next Tuesday, if the series is back in PHL, look out. It's not going to be warm.
The fans at COORS field will be turning blue, along with the beer (see the Coors Commercial).
Ciao for now. *****
MONDAY 7:30 P.M.
NOT MUCH OF A NINO.
The latest MEI value has dropped to .75
There is an interesting comment on this on the MEI site:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
"... context of recent positive MEI values, this section features a comparison figure of weak-to-moderate El Nino events that emerge from La Nina conditions in the same calendar year. Note that there was a 30-year hiatus with no such transitions between 1976 and 2006, attesting mostly to the lack of La Nina conditions in this period (as well as the lack of fast transitions from La Nina into El Nino)...."
This observation by Klaus Wolter is very significant as the 1976 example was at the end of the cold PDO and the 2006 example is arguably in the starting time of the new cold PDO. During the warm PDO, the ninos ran rampant for the most part and most of those winters were warm.
The mei contributing value is .75 Current glaam is -.3 The soi contributor for 30 days The sign used is opposite and divided by 10, as is the 90 day is -.25 the 90 day is 0. The Lima contributor (30-day running mean) is plus .4 The Indian Ocean Dipole is giving us a value of 0 Latest Nino 3.4 is .7 the 1.2 is now MINUS .3 The running 90 day only is .8
The Bastardi Scale for all of this is calculated by adding all these, then dividing by all the factors and it comes out to .2. For my purposes, this has weakened to less than a Nino category for the overall global pattern as we are not even at .5 The fact is there are enough cold signals to balance out what warmth there is. Cooling is taking place in all the nino areas I refer my readers to the NOAA El Nino discussion site http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-stat us-fcsts-web.pdf
I would also like to remind the reader that when I see excellence in sites, I bring them up. The MEI site is outstanding and comes out of the CDC maproom and is maintained by Klaus Wolter. The enso updates, whether I agree or not with the ideas there, should be read by all that are serious about watching this event's effect on the weather. I am transparent with what I am doing and trying to show the whys before the fact. Since most people are skeptical on ideas they do not come up, I have no fear of people stealing my ideas until they are obviously the way to go. For instance, the idea put forth in a recent Drudge Report article by another met mimicked ideas released publicly by ACCUWEATHER ON JULY 15TH. So yes, I may see, with time, some of the ideas here come to front, but again, like that, and NOAA announcing in June the NINO idea we had here in late winter had merit, I expect these things I am showing you will only come to the front after the fact.
If indeed they have merit. That, of course, is not yet determined, which is why these ideas are not being touted and in fact, probably being chastised.
The one that has to be the most aggravating to people that research this is the Lima, Peru, temp. But notice what has happened. Nino 1.2 is colder than normal. Lima told us what was going on before the data actually showed nino 1.2 dropping that much. That -.3 is already below what the model said it would dip too.
Which leaves us with this question... are we having fun yet?
Ciao for now. ******
yep I was impressed to see it jump from 14N to 17N
now 91L will have to fight to survive until better conditions become available, if they ever do
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Daily Chuckles in Comments section
Exactly.
It does bear watching though over the next 48 hours.
Its gotta stay south of 20N if it survives and even then shear might be too strong.
Models are just tools.
thank you 23 was about too say the same thing
The GFS never said the shear was going to be low where 91L is currently...
The simple fact is that 91L was drawn north by a weakness in the mid-latitude ridge...and with a sharp south (low) to north (high) shear gradient, this little jog has made all the difference. If our little LLC was down at 14, shear would be low!
If it bends to the southwest or WSW and gets into the eastern Caribbean at around 15-16N then it would likely develop. If it stays on a WNW heading...it will likely struggle for at least 48-60 hours.
About 17n 52w, right?
Looks pretty good for the caribbean at this point.
yup same here
all so too me any thing pass 72hrs has for has mode runs go i find worth less they has they can be nevere right pass 72hrs
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