Super Typhoon Parma threatens the Philippines; October hurricane season outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009

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It's been a terrible week for natural disasters in Asia, with the death toll from two huge earthquakes and Typhoon Ketsana continuing to mount. The bad news got worse today with the emergence of Super Typhoon Parma, now poised strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island as a Category 4 typhoon with 150 mph winds. Also of concern is Category 3 Typhoon Melor, which has just undergone a period of rapid intensification, and is also approaching super typhoon status. A super typhoon is a storm with 150 mph winds or higher--a strong Category 4. Melor is forecast to pass through the northern Marianas Islands north of Guam and Saipan this weekend, then curve to the north and threaten Japan next week.

Super Typhoon Parma intensified dramatically early this morning, forming a tiny "pinhole" eye (Figure 1) only seen in very intense tropical cyclones. The last Atlantic hurricane to form a pinhole eye was Hurricane Wilma, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Parma's outer spiral bands are already beginning to spread over the eastern positions of the Philippines, and beginning Friday will likely bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the regions hard-hit by Typhoon Ketsana, including the capital of Manila. More seriously, the super typhoon may make landfall along the northeastern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines on Saturday as a Category 4 or 5 typhoon. The uncertainty in the forecast is very high, as steering currents are expected to weaken on Friday, and the presence of Typhoon Melor to the northeast introduces an additional element of uncertainty. It is quite possible that Parma will stall near or just offshore the northern coast of Luzon Saturday through Sunday as a super typhoon, dumping rainfall in excess of a foot over northern Luzon, as forecast by the ECMWF model. Northern Luzon received 2 - 4 inches of rain from Typhoon Ketsana last week, and an additional 12+ inches of rain falling on soils already saturated from Ketsana's rains would likely cause severe flash flooding and major landslides capable of killing hundreds. Another dismal possibility is offered by the NOGAPS model, which forecasts that Parma will cross directly over Luzon north of Manila, bringing heavy rains in excess of six inches to Manila, where more than 16 inches of rain fell Saturday during Typhoon Ketsana. It is also possible that Parma will miss the Philippines, staying far enough offshore that the Philippines will not suffer a major flooding disaster. However, the odds current favor another major typhoon disaster for the Philippines this weekend.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Parma at 02:25 UTC on 10/01/09. Parma had developed a tiny pinhole eye, and the outer spiral bands were beginning to affect the eastern Philippines. Image credit: NASA.

October hurricane outlook
In the first half of October, Atlantic tropical cyclone activity remains quite high, before a sharp drop occurs around October 15. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, the first half of October has given birth to an average of 1.9 named storms, 0.7 hurricanes and 0.4 intense hurricanes. For the entire month of October, these figures are 3.9 named storms, 1.2 hurricanes, and 0.6 intense hurricanes. These numbers are about double the long-term climatological averages for the past 100 years.

The most typical track for October hurricanes is through the Western Caribbean, with recurvature to the north and northwest into the Gulf of Mexico or across Cuba and through the Bahamas. The jet stream becomes more active and moves further south in October, making recurving storms more likely, and eliminating long-track Cape Verdes-type hurricanes from making direct strikes on the U.S. East Coast or Texas. There have only been nine hurricanes that have hit the U.S. East Coast north of Miami in October or later, and only three on the Texas coast. For the U.S., the highest risk areas for an October hurricane strike are between central Louisiana and Southeast Florida. About 71% of the 53 hurricanes that have hit the U.S. after October 1 have struck this region. Here is a breakdown of the number of hurricane strikes by state between 1851 - 2008 occurring October or later:

Texas 3
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 2
Alabama 0
Florida Gulf Coast 25 (7 of these in the Panhandle)
Southeast Florida 3
Georgia 2
South Carolina 3
North Carolina 4
New England 2

There have been no direct strikes by hurricanes on the east coast of Florida north of Miami in October or later. However, the east coast of Florida is still capable of getting damaging hurricane conditions from storms that strike the Gulf Coast of Florida and move eastwards, as Hurricane Wilma of 2005 proved.


Figure 2. Tracks of all hurricanes and tropical storms forming October 1 - 15, 1851 - 2006.

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, the last few runs of the 16-day GFS model forecast for wind shear have been predicting a decline in wind shear over the Caribbean after October 12, so there may be a greater chance of tropical storm formation as we head into mid-October. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are certainly warm enough to support a major hurricane anywhere in the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, and are more than 1°C above average (Figure 3).


Figure 3. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature from average for October 1, 2009. SSTs were about 1°C above average over the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the very warm anomalies over the East Pacific off the coast of South America, the signature of an El Niño event. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Wind shear
Wind shear has been much above average over the tropical Atlantic over the past month, which is typical for an El Niño year, though part of this shear is due to the above-average number of upper-level troughs of low pressure over the Atlantic this hurricane season. El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific have remained essentially unchanged over past few weeks, and are expected to intensify in the coming months, so we can expect a continuation of above-average wind shear over the Atlantic for the remainder of hurricane season. Wunderblogger Weather456 has posted a nice October hurricane outlook that goes into a bit more detail than I've done here for those interested.

The forecast
The last Atlantic hurricane season that was this quiet was the strong El Niño year of 1997. That year, we got two weak 45-mph tropical storms in October to finish out the season. I predict that for this season, we will also finish out the year with two more named storms, with one of these reaching hurricane strength. The most likely land areas such a storm might affect are along the Western Caribbean, Gulf Coast of Florida, and the Bahamas. The most likely time these storms may form is the period October 13 - November 7.

Jeff Masters

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312. luvnbrat64
11:05 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009
Ok I have a question for anyone that can help.....My son is currently stationed in South Korea...Melor has me a bit concerned...what is the opinion of everyone that it curves or is it going to cross Japan and head his way?He doesn't call to let me know anything scary, doesn't want to worry me.Any opinions would be greatly appreciated.Thank you!!
Member Since: Septiembre 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
311. mossyhead
11:04 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39:
Not to sound insensitive, but your right, it didnt happen here! Believe me if the big time Media networks thought they could get big ratings off of this, it would be on 24--- seven!
also, not enough people died from it. the us networks are after sensational news. the more dead people the better. i do not watch any of the news, just the internet news that do not belong to the networks.
Member Since: Julio 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
310. tornadodude
11:03 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009
.
Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
309. Floodman
11:03 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009
Quoting P451:


Lame.

Oh well, he will be back tomorrow.



Actually about an hour...
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
307. Floodman
11:01 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009
Quoting P451:
Did I read that Pat got banned for a day?

That is just pathetic....

I've said it before and will say it again we have 3 or 4 people on here running around with a dozen names each. You take one of those trolls to task they will report you with their dozen+ names. That will lead the admin to believe that dozens of users are upset with one and he will ban that one user.

I have written our so called admin among some of you others (as you know who you are) that this is what is going on. (I have run many a web forum and know the behavior that transpires) and yet...nothing can be done?

Pathetic!!!! And I don't want to hear that the TOS was violated by Pat. If he did so it was with good reason and anyone upset with it? Was likely a troll.

And, as I have said in the past, if your hobby is to troll a WEATHER BLOG then you are really as sad as it can possibly get!

GO OUTSIDE AND FIND SOMETHING TO DO! You know, there's girls out there. Or well, boys, if that's your problem! Whatever it is that's fueling your desire to screw with others' fun.



The [problem is that those of us regulars that get banned are banned because of a troll whining that we were off topic, or mean to them...
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
304. tornadodude
10:59 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009
Yeah, he got banned for an off topic image. Which wasnt really off topic, or ban worthy
Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
302. timtrice
10:54 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm up in The Woodlands / Spring area.


Nice area. How'd Ike treat you? Friend in kingwood had tree smash his truck. On generator for two weeks. Other than that, not too bad
301. tornadodude
10:54 PM GMT en Octubre 01, 2009
Quoting P451:


I always assumed that everything in Canada looked like this:



In fact, I'm willing to bet that is you, searching for your "house".


*runs*




LOL

hey guys
Member Since: Junio 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
According to this, the front associated with 90L is dissipating, or at least part of it. What exactly would this mean.

Member Since: Abril 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
Sounds like you live in a very interesting place. I just have to learn English, English to go there, right? (j/k)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
297. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
WTPQ20 BABJ 011800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MELOR 0918 (0918) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC
00HR 14.1N 151.4E 950HPA 45M/S (90 kts)
30KTS 280KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P 24HR 16.0N 148.3E 940HPA 50M/S (100 kts)
P 48HR 17.2N 143.2E 925HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P 72HR 18.6N 138.4E 925HPA 55M/S (110 kts)
P 96HR 21.4N 133.7E 910HPA 60M/S (120 kts)

---
Melor still looks scary in intensity as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Orca, don't you live in British Colombia?


Victoria BC on Vancouver Island.. so yes.. BC
As for the time of year.. depends what you want to do? Anything from Sightseeing to some of the best fishing and skiing in the world.. your call.. all 4 seasons are packed here.
Member Since: Octubre 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Orca, don't you live in British Colombia?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Its getting a fair amount of coverage on the BBC and Canadian stations.


I think you just made my point "BBC & Canadian stations" too many people watch just MSNBC, ABC, CNN, and FOX.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


So stormpetrol and Orca have something in common, God Save the Queen and all.


OK, maybe I do get offended easily... grrrr
ROFLMAO :)
Member Since: Octubre 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Dakster:


No biggie... Glad I didn't offend you somehow..


Roflmao.. I don't get offended easily, and even that wouldn't get you put on ignore.
Member Since: Octubre 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting stormpetrol:

We are a UK overseas Territory and both hold UK & Caymanian citizenship.Correct , the education system here is more British, though we have American Schools here also, I graduated from the American system which quite frankly I like much better. The US is also our main stay of essential imports , if the United States sneezes we catch the cold.


So stormpetrol and Orca have something in common, God Save the Queen and all.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting timtrice:


I didn't see any snow from that system in Katy though I've heard there were some reports. The one I remember was a true white Christmas just couple years ago. Never thought I'd put my son in snow on Christmas morning but sure as hell got to that year. In corpus at the time


I remember that too, living in Pine Forest (basically a few miles from La border) at the time. I think it was 2003 or 4. I remember my daughter and husband rushing into my bedroom, all excited for me to get up and see the snow. Lol. It was new to them native Texans. I'm an Army brat I've seen it before. :) Not that much snow stuck that time. But last December 11th it snowed about 6 inches at around 2 in the morning. We looked like pod people drifting out of our houses, mainly barefooted, trying to take pictures in the dark before the sun came up and melted it. Lol. My granddaughter got to make her first snowman that night. But oh the poor baby, the look on her face when her hands went numb! Lol. It was precious but she was not happy! It was really nice though. Sometimes Mother Nature gives us a good surprise. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormPetrol - Sure seems like it is a small world sometimes. One day I'm going to go too.

Although I think my next trip will be in Orcasystems area. I am DIEING to see the Pac Northwest, into Canada, and then into Alaska. Orca will have to fill me in on the best time of the year to go.
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Quoting presslord:
I'm amazed at how little TV coverage the tsunami seems to have gotten...everything I've read paints a terrible picture...yet it doesn't seem to be generating much TV appeal...


i am noticing more and more that tv does not cover what I am interested in, and just obsessively covers stuff that is so silly. What ratings market are they aiming for? and my local news is worse. Weather afects tourism so if its gonna be gale force lashing rain they say "possible scattered showers"
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I must have missed them.. normally when I am on during the day.. I am actually at work.. so I miss a fair amount of posts.


No biggie... Glad I didn't offend you somehow..
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Not to sound insensitive, but your right, it didnt happen here! Believe me if the big time Media networks thought they could get big ratings off of this, it would be on 24--- seven!


Its getting a fair amount of coverage on the BBC and Canadian stations.
Member Since: Octubre 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting WaterWitch11:


Because it didn't happen here. I wish I could scream at our media sometimes.
Not to sound insensitive, but your right, it didnt happen here! Believe me if the big time Media networks thought they could get big ratings off of this, it would be on 24--- seven!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
281. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:


JTWC Advisory #17 at 2100Z (4 PM CDT) stated Typhoon Parma has 120KT=140MPH winds..HMMMMMMM..


JTWC measure maximum 1 minute sustained winds, while the Philippines Weather Services (and much of the far east) measure maximum 10 minute sustained winds for typhoons.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
check this webcam out, you can control it in real time, weather real nasty here in Grand Cayman.
That is going to be cool to watch the norwesters come into hog-sty this winter(or a late-season hurricane)?
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Quoting Dakster:


Sorry Orca... I guess I am just a spoiled American afterall... (I thought you were ingoring me from the other day - as I asked you direct questions without an answer - so at least I know I amused you today)



I must have missed them.. normally when I am on during the day.. I am actually at work.. so I miss a fair amount of posts.
Member Since: Octubre 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Orcasystems:
Post #269
I noticed some of the spelling on the English part of the site does not follow traditional "American English" spelling rules, and seems to follow more of a UK spelling.

I almost hurt myself when I read that :)

It should have said, traditional "American English" vice say the traditional "English English"



Sorry Orca... I guess I am just a spoiled American afterall... (I thought you were ingoring me from the other day - as I asked you direct questions without an answer - so at least I know I amused you today)

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274. Dakster
Small world, that's great!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Aurora-Isabela area.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
=======================
At 5:00 a.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 14.0N 127.0E or 270 kms east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (105 kts) with gusts up to 230 km/h (125 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Catanduanes
2.Camarines Norte
3.Northern Quezon
4.Aurora
5.Polillo Islands

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.Abra
4.Apayao
5.Kalinga
6.Cagayan
7.Babuyan Islands
8.Isabela
9.Mt. Province
10.Ifugao
11.Benguet
12.La Union
13.Nueva Vizcaya
14.Quirino
15.Pangasinan
16.Nueva Ecija
17.Tarlac
18.Zambales
19.Pampanga
20.Bulacan
21.Rizal
22.Southern Quezon
23.Camarines Sur
24.Albay
25.Sorsogon
26.Burias Island

Visayas Region
1.Northern Samar

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal # 2 and signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 A.M. today.

---
edit: I had numbering problems, LOL


JTWC Advisory #17 at 2100Z (4 PM CDT) stated Typhoon Parma has 120KT=140MPH winds..HMMMMMMM..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post #269
I noticed some of the spelling on the English part of the site does not follow traditional "American English" spelling rules, and seems to follow more of a UK spelling.

I almost hurt myself when I read that :)

It should have said, traditional "American English" vice say the traditional "English English"

Member Since: Octubre 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting stormpetrol:

We are a UK overseas Territory and both hold UK & Caymanian citizenship.Correct , the education system here is more British, though we have American Schools here also, I graduated from the American system which quite frankly I like much better. The US is also our main stay of essential imports , if the United States sneezes we catch the cold.


Accchhoooo!

Just kidding. Neat. I know that my kids enjoyed going to Grand Cayman this summer with their grandparents.... Unfortunately, I didn't get to go. They had great weather and a lot of fun.
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Quoting presslord:
I'm amazed at how little TV coverage the tsunami seems to have gotten...everything I've read paints a terrible picture...yet it doesn't seem to be generating much TV appeal...


Because it didn't happen here. I wish I could scream at our media sometimes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


I'm assuming you didn't mean news anchor, either.


Stormpetrol- That is what I thought... I guess the webcam's native language is something quite different! Were the Cayman's a British Colony at one point? I noticed some of the spelling on the English part of the site does not follow traditional "American English" spelling rules, and seems to follow more of a UK spelling.

We are a UK overseas Territory and both hold UK & Caymanian citizenship.Correct , the education system here is more British, though we have American Schools here also, I graduated from the American system which quite frankly I like much better. The US is also our main stay of essential imports , if the United States sneezes we catch the cold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

English, but the webcam set up is probably Asian/Chinese/Japanese, I'm not really sure.


Caymans are part of Great Britain with English as their language. They are a British overseas territory. And I don't see anything but English on the page. Hmmm, must have missed it.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
270. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Aurora-Isabela area.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
=======================
At 5:00 a.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 14.0N 127.0E or 270 kms east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (105 kts) with gusts up to 230 km/h (125 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Catanduanes
2.Camarines Norte
3.Northern Quezon
4.Aurora
5.Polillo Islands

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.Abra
4.Apayao
5.Kalinga
6.Cagayan
7.Babuyan Islands
8.Isabela
9.Mt. Province
10.Ifugao
11.Benguet
12.La Union
13.Nueva Vizcaya
14.Quirino
15.Pangasinan
16.Nueva Ecija
17.Tarlac
18.Zambales
19.Pampanga
20.Bulacan
21.Rizal
22.Southern Quezon
23.Camarines Sur
24.Albay
25.Sorsogon
26.Burias Island

Visayas Region
1.Northern Samar

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal # 2 and signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 A.M. today.

---
edit: I had numbering problems, LOL
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Quoting presslord:
Dak...he'll make a great anchor...


I'm assuming you didn't mean news anchor, either.


Stormpetrol- That is what I thought... I guess the webcam's native language is something quite different! Were the Cayman's a British Colony at one point? I noticed some of the spelling on the English part of the site does not follow traditional "American English" spelling rules, and seems to follow more of a UK spelling.
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I'm amazed at how little TV coverage the tsunami seems to have gotten...everything I've read paints a terrible picture...yet it doesn't seem to be generating much TV appeal...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
267. xcool



Member Since: Septiembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Dakster:
Stormpetrol - Neat app, btw in that page the writing looks like japanese? What is the "native" language of the Cayman's?

English, but the webcam set up is probably Asian/Chinese/Japanese, I'm not really sure.
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Dak...he'll make a great anchor...
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Quoting Weather456:
Temperatures rose at several stations along the Western Azores Islands but its rather difficult to ascertain whether this is due to daytime heating or the cyclone itself. 90L has a ST number of 3.5.


HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS
VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND
995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING
THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT
20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP
CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN
IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE
FROM 3.5 TO 4.5
... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN
EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS
STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE
23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.
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Quoting presslord:
Dak...not 'til we get the transport issue resolved...


Ok. I am staying the course then.

WS said he is a master boatsman and wants to tag along. I told him, he has to ask you first.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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