98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT en Septiembre 20, 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Catfish57:
Thanks, but I thought that rule only applied to "active periods" of hurricane season. When did this change take effect?

Think this was meant as a joke.

"The weather outside is frightful..."
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Quoting Hurricane009:
where do you live??


I live in West Lafayette Indiana
Quoting juslivn:
Yes, it's been 18 days here since it has rained. Someone turned off the spicket from earlier this summer when it rained every other day.


where do you live?
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no rain here in 20 days but that changes tomorrow
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Quoting aquak9:
WS- there's a decent ULL forming over your area. Maybe it can work it's way to the surface. Maybe it won't budge. Maybe you'll be ground zero for this inexplicable occurance.

maybe I'll learn to control my typing....
you might want to get out your flashlights and batteries
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Yes, it's been 18 days here since it has rained. Someone turned off the spicket from earlier this summer when it rained every other day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well, im still waiting on the rain that was forecast to get here. it hasnt rained since september 3rd!
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Thanks, but I thought that rule only applied to "active periods" of hurricane season. When did this change take effect?
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257. beell
.
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WS- there's a decent ULL forming over your area. Maybe it can work it's way to the surface. Maybe it won't budge. Maybe you'll be ground zero for this inexplicable occurance.

maybe I'll learn to control my typing....
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Quoting PcolaDan:
from Wikipedia article

Referendum Results (1967, 1993, and 1998)

Electoral results for Puerto Rican Status referenda, recorded as thousands of votes (% total). See page 4 of the Report By the President's Task Force On Puerto Rico's Status (December 2005)(site does't exist) for reference.
1967 1993 1998
Independence 4.2(0.6%) 75.6(4.5%) 39.8(2.5%)
Commonwealth 425.1(60.4%) 826.3 (48.9%) 5.0 (0.3%)
Statehood 274.3 (39.0%) 788.3 (46.6%) 728.2 (46.7%)
None of the above NA NA 787.9 (50.5%)
Electoral turnout 74% 71%
Yes , shows that people are very confuse by propaganda,but all those referendums are locals, at the end again , we need a referendum that has the "go ahead" of the congress with a guarantee that the decision made by the people will be granted by the United States. Back to weather I think that with all shear in the caribbean and the atlantic September will stay with 2 storms, lets see.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
who thinks that we will have a bad winter???


I dont have a clue about this winter, but in my opinion, i want a "bad" winter. I love winter weather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
catfish- new blog rules- somehow, ya gotta work a weather comment into any comment ya make.

And I'd be glad to have some cooler weather here in NE Fla.
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strong>Hey Ice!! Any way you can shrink this. I feel like I am reading a Chinese newspaper.

Quoting iceman55:
Tonight
Sep 20


Scattered T-Storms

N/A
72°

40%





High not valid after 2pm
Mon
Sep 21


Scattered T-Storms

86°
73°

50%



86°F

Check the Air Quality
Tue
Sep 22


Scattered T-Storms

85°
72°

40%



85°F

Wed
Sep 23


Isolated T-Storms

87°
73°

30%



87°F

Thu
Sep 24


Partly Cloudy

87°
73°

20%



87°F

Got Clean Air?
Fri
Sep 25


Scattered T-Storms

86°
72°

50%



86°F

Sat
Sep 26


Scattered T-Storms

84°
69°

40%



84°F

Sun
Sep 27


Isolated T-Storms

84°
67°

30%



84°F

Mon
Sep 28


Sunny

82°
66°

0%



82°F

Tue
Sep 29


Sunny

81°
67°

0%



81°F

no cold air hmmm


Hey Ice!! Any way you can shrink this. I feel like I am reading a Chinese newspaper.
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No offense, but if I'd lived in PR, I'd vote none of the above too. Think about it no fed income tax. They proverbally have their cake and eat it too.

No offense, but I'd like to cut them loose, and let them be independent. Saves my income tax burden.
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iceman-- oh..nevermind.

Good one, gator.
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Quoting gator23:

After the Marlins won the World Series(both times) people got out of there cars on 8th street and started Dancing. Miami is crazy for celebrations. Thank god it happened in October and we were Hurricane free(weather comment)


Clever interjection! I'm proud of you for staying on topic! Remember what the weather was like the day when the Dolphins went for 17 straight?
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Quoting Hurricane009:
I think today is the First Day of Fall.
tuseday near 5 pm edt the sun sets on the line and from there on out heads south towards southern hemisphere to reach it maximum point south by dec 21 90 days later
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iceman-

the cold front isnt supposed to even come through where i live in Indiana until late this week, be patient, it will come lol
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A change to Fall is expected isn't as it starts in 2 days?
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Quoting JLPR:


Actually with the American influence the Independence party has end up as a minority,
with the Pro statehood and the Pro Association parties having a fight with each other xD
yeap, but at the end the last word is in the congress, no matter our little or big differences.
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233. IKE
Quoting Hurricane009:
What is that website???


Link
Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
232. JLPR
Quoting gator23:

They are not Latin American they are Carribean and im sure people said the same thing about Hawaii


nope Spanish speaking people in this side of the world are known as Latin American
since Spanish is derived from Latin

I had left the computer and this message was un posted lol
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting aquak9:
Cosmic, any time I've visited Hialeah, it seems there's always a reason to dance in the streets.

Even after Andrew, people took turns directing traffic thru heavy intersections, they had radios, and played music, and danced while directing traffic. Locals, not police officers that is.

(see, grothar? somehow I even slid in a tropical weather reference!)

After the Marlins won the World Series(both times) people got out of there cars on 8th street and started Dancing. Miami is crazy for celebrations. Thank god it happened in October and we were Hurricane free(weather comment)
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Quoting canenizzle:
Long time lurker.
Quoting canenizzle:


Then you should blog somewhere else.... this is a tropical weather blog not a winter independence blog

So, a long time lurker who within the first few post starts bashing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cosmic, any time I've visited Hialeah, it seems there's always a reason to dance in the streets.

Even after Andrew, people took turns directing traffic thru heavy intersections, they had radios, and played music, and danced while directing traffic. Locals, not police officers that is.

(see, grothar? somehow I even slid in a tropical weather reference!)
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Quoting Grothar:


I really think we should get back to the tropics!!! Does anybody see anything?



Nop Tropics are dead
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
225. JLPR
Quoting Grothar:


I really think we should get back to the tropics!!! Does anybody see anything?


nope lol xD
im off
I don't like to talk about politics so im bored lol

later
Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Grothar:


I really think we should get back to the tropics!!! Does anybody see anything?


do I see a fredex plane delivering a package from PR to the US?
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223. IKE
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF is showing a change to fall in the next 10 days in the eastern USA.


6-10 day temperature outlook confirms it....



8-14 day does too....

Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting jurakantaino:
It is very simple people are afraid the United States wont accept a latin american state.

They are not Latin American they are Carribean and im sure people said the same thing about Hawaii
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Only 12 more days for us in Texas to breathe a little easier. Only 1 MH after September 30th in history (Since 1851, and that was 1949).

Not to say it won't but, our odds sure improve with the fronts, troughs, and westerlies that come with the fall.
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I really think we should get back to the tropics!!! Does anybody see anything?
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Quoting Motttt:

I don't know but I can send a package with USPS there for the same price that I would send next door and get there at the same time

last poll I saq it was 50/50 betwene statehood and the status quo
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Long range models are showing vigorous deep-layered trough advecting eastward. The only way the CONUS would be threatened is from a storm forming in the Caribbean.
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Quoting aquak9:
Even when Fidel dies, Cosmic....with his brother already in charge, I can't see too much changing after Fidel's death.

I know, but a big part of the population down in SFLA will be happy. They'll be dancing in the streets, even if there's a hurricane warning at the time.....
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Quoting Drakoen:
If we don't get anymore named storms then the Glosea climate forecast model would be confirmed.


yup yup yup
Member Since: Mayo 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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