Fred is dead; the Atlantic is quiet
Hurricane Fred is dead, thanks to strong wind shear that finished tearing the storm apart yesterday. While the remains of Fred have generated a burst of heavy thunderstorms this morning, prohibitively high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots today through Monday will prevent regeneration, and should be able to completely disrupt the remnant circulation of Fred.
A tropical wave about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa, remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, and one spot of 45 mph winds in the small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some slow development beginning Monday, when the shear should drop below 20 knots. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
A low pressure system that was over the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast has moved inland, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone. Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
Figure 1. The remains of Tropical Storm Fred (left) appear as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the north side. A new tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 knots of wind shear.
Twenty years ago on this date
On September 13, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo continued its westward march at 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Shortly after midnight on the 13th, satellite analysts at the National Hurricane Center noted a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of thick cirrus clouds was forming over the center. The CDO was evidence that Hugo was beginning to build an eyewall. The thunderstorms in the eyewall were now powerful enough to lift large amounts of moisture 45,000 feet high, where the stable air of the stratosphere lay. Unable to penetrate into the stratosphere, the air lifted by Hugo's thunderstorms was forced to spread outward into a thick, circular layer of cirrus clouds--the CDO--that hid the storm's core. The mystery of what was happening beneath the Central Dense Overcast became apparent a few hours later, when a murky eye appeared. At 8 am EDT on the 13th, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hugo to hurricane status.
At NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--we busily prepared for tomorrow's deployment to Barbados of both of our P-3 Orion hurricane hunting aircraft. There were dropsondes and Air-Expendable Bathythermographs to load, computer checks to make, and calibration data to load. We chatted excitedly about the new hurricane that looked like an excellent case study for the hurricane scientists. But there was also an undercurrent of uneasiness to our cheerful preparations. We knew that a Cape Verdes-type hurricane like Hugo that was still 2 - 3 days from the Lesser Antilles would probably kill a lot of people--perhaps even close to home, here in Florida.
In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here".
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 13, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
Jeff Masters
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Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
September 11: After two years (2007-2008) of dramatically below normal Northern Hemisphere and Global hurricane activity, 2009 has actually (year-to-date) managed LESS Accmulated Cyclone Energy! 2009 is currently the second slowest Northern Hemisphere ACE year-to-date behind 1981 in the past 30-years. Here is a text list of the previous September 11 to-date totals for NH ACE. LIST
Note: While the best-track data quality is significantly poorer prior to 1979, only 1973 and 1977 had less Northern Hemisphere ACE since 1959 than 2009. Indeed, the 1960s were very active in the Western Pacific
September 7: As the peak of the Northern Hemisphere Season approaches, activity globally has become uncharacteristically quiet. The global forecast models are predicting several hurricane formations but so far nothing has panned out. The climatological ACE for the NH (thru Sept 7, based upon 1979-2008 averages) is 282. Currently the NH ACE is 188. Here is a text list of the previous September 7 to-date totals for NH ACE. LIST
Northern Hemisphere ACE through September 7
1979 252.205
1980 261.442
1981 174.685
1982 342.506
1983 237.615
1984 244.547
1985 313.388
1986 245.140
1987 309.823
1988 218.174
1989 293.777
1990 361.638
1991 258.850
1992 421.380
1993 359.823
1994 387.955
1995 301.628
1996 366.117
1997 395.803
1998 221.305
1999 230.620
2000 292.740
2001 241.100
2002 397.985
2003 317.520
2004 495.683
2005 365.705
2006 311.025
2007 237.020
2008 279.615
2009 206.080
AVERAGES: (1979-2008)
EPAC WPAC IO ATL NH
88.2770 155.691 7.00692 53.5851 304.560
2009 is currently at 68% of normal and is so far the second slowest ACE year in the past 30-years (1981 at 174 is less)
Ok Taz listen you donot live on the Gulf Coast and nor the Atlantic Coast..... Hurricane Season does not end untill Nov 30. We that live here cannot say it is over.... There is still a possible chance for just 1 to hit and I mean anywhere on either coast..... Now you have been here for a long time as myself.... With all due respect there still going to have a storm form sometime this week from the stalled front thats in the GOM going over Florida..... So Please stop saying that untill November 30th.... OK
Taco :0)
You might want to take that fork out.
LMAO!
Repeat. We have a Code ORANGE in the Eastern Atlantic.
How's that for exciting???
but if i trun out to be right by OCT 15th then am going to say i was right all a long
well yep
this is interesting
wasn't expecting a special update
so they think it looks good? xD
Yea, his logic was pretty much slaughtered just now. 'Season over season over!' then the NHC issues a special TWO upping Ex-Fred to Orange alert.
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED.
1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS POSSIBLE IF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting help4u:
agree,taz.this season is over.Stick a fork in it.vbg
You might want to take that fork out.
LMAO!
lol
if your wrong will you admit it =]?
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19638.asp
There's one. And in an ENSO| Analog year.
Quoting Tazmanian:
oh ok
but if i trun out to be right by OCT 15th then am going to say i was right all a long
if your wrong will you admit it =]?
yup feel free too save that commet on your not pad
Woah. I hope that won't a permanent pattern for the Fall/Winter Season. Or it is going to be pretty chilly. I don't care if el nino makes it less likely for Frost,rain, etc. I hate the cold as do many Floridians.
Quoting Tazmanian:
...as far has i no of there has nevere been a hurricane in OCT in a EL Nino year
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19638.asp
There's one. And in an ENSO| Analog year
oh cool and what kind of a track you called that
sure, will do XD
One thing about meteorology I love is that SOMETIMES it's just unpredictable!! Poor Fred, died and not the NHC said there's a MEDIUM chance he may return to life!! Gotta love it!!
Any recent model runs out yet, that are more credible than playing the roulette wheel in Vegas????
It's all this talk about Hugo.
They stubbed their TWO.
Thats why the Season has a end date of Nov 30th.
Quoting Tazmanian:
315. JLPR 1:49 PM PDT on September 13, 2009 Hide this comment.
Quoting Tazmanian:
oh ok
but if i trun out to be right by OCT 15th then am going to say i was right all a long
if your wrong will you admit it =]?
yup feel free too save that commet on your not pad
sure, will do XD
ok
Quoting Tazmanian:
292. Hurricane009 1:42 PM PDT on September 13, 2009 Hide this comment.
Quoting help4u:
agree,taz.this season is over.Stick a fork in it.vbg
SEASON IS NOT OVER
yes its is its overe. for the USA like IKE said major pattern change coming....
local forecasts are indicating a significant cool down coming by next weekend for entire eastern half of north america and the first outflow coming off gulf coasts and fla pens if things pan out by th 21 of sept highs will be mid 60,s and low high 30's low 40's for grt lakes region south fall coming soon 7 days till the first of autumn and it looks like thats what it will be
cool may be the 1st snow??
It's called "nobody's posting in caps".
I agree... Computer Models are digital in their thinking. Weather - climate - storms - and hurricanes, are still thinking in Analog. Got the computers beat by at least 1000 years.
Agree.
I was just looking at St. Louis,Missouri extended discussion....
"FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND I HAVE
TRENDED THE FCST TOWARDS A ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND...OF
AN AMPLIFYING ERN U.S. TROF. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A COLD FROPA IN
THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME AND A DECENT SHOT OF COOL AIR. HOWEVER I
HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT WITH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING...
DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THESE TIME RANGES AND DUE TO POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE AS OF LATE."
yep and a CV remnant that is at a relatively low latitude, ex-Fred is looking suspicious
Patrap just wondering while I watch what was Fred, does the NHC even know what this thing is going to do????
Beverages from the sky?
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