Fred is dead; the Atlantic is quiet
Hurricane Fred is dead, thanks to strong wind shear that finished tearing the storm apart yesterday. While the remains of Fred have generated a burst of heavy thunderstorms this morning, prohibitively high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots today through Monday will prevent regeneration, and should be able to completely disrupt the remnant circulation of Fred.
A tropical wave about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa, remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, and one spot of 45 mph winds in the small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some slow development beginning Monday, when the shear should drop below 20 knots. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
A low pressure system that was over the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast has moved inland, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone. Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
Figure 1. The remains of Tropical Storm Fred (left) appear as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the north side. A new tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 knots of wind shear.
Twenty years ago on this date
On September 13, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo continued its westward march at 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Shortly after midnight on the 13th, satellite analysts at the National Hurricane Center noted a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of thick cirrus clouds was forming over the center. The CDO was evidence that Hugo was beginning to build an eyewall. The thunderstorms in the eyewall were now powerful enough to lift large amounts of moisture 45,000 feet high, where the stable air of the stratosphere lay. Unable to penetrate into the stratosphere, the air lifted by Hugo's thunderstorms was forced to spread outward into a thick, circular layer of cirrus clouds--the CDO--that hid the storm's core. The mystery of what was happening beneath the Central Dense Overcast became apparent a few hours later, when a murky eye appeared. At 8 am EDT on the 13th, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hugo to hurricane status.
At NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--we busily prepared for tomorrow's deployment to Barbados of both of our P-3 Orion hurricane hunting aircraft. There were dropsondes and Air-Expendable Bathythermographs to load, computer checks to make, and calibration data to load. We chatted excitedly about the new hurricane that looked like an excellent case study for the hurricane scientists. But there was also an undercurrent of uneasiness to our cheerful preparations. We knew that a Cape Verdes-type hurricane like Hugo that was still 2 - 3 days from the Lesser Antilles would probably kill a lot of people--perhaps even close to home, here in Florida.
In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here".
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 13, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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"...SOMEONE WOULD HAVE TO BE A COMPLETE IDIOT TO MAKE A STATEMENT LIKE THAT..."
That makes stormt a complete idiot, according to stormno.
I agree... 954FtLCane
North Carolina Strike from the North
Doria (1967)
HAHAHA this dude is wack...
Stormy afternoon here in Trinidad,11n61w
It Appears we have a slow moving wave over the windwards,sw winds at piarco international.
Yeah, but this was a storm that he flew into.
I'd like to thank Dr. Masters for giving us this great history story on Hugo. I grew up in Wilmington, NC and Hugo gave us a really big scare. We got out of school and I remember going down to Wrightsville Beach as it was approaching and watching HUGE waves lap against the bottom of the pier. Fortunately, it hit far enough south of us in South Carolina that we only got tropical storm force winds from it. I was in the 7th grade a the time and Hugo was the first hurrican that I watched progress from the coast of Africa until landfall in SC and as it pushed inland.
Here's JB this morning...
Go 'Fins!
SUNDAY MORNING
Videos will be on soon. The Long Ranger deals with the upcoming winter ( again) and shows the tell tale sign of the colder version of the nino winter ( 1.2 colder than 3.4) The Big Dog heads west with speculation about California heat, and another development that can impact the Baja. We also looks at NOT DEAD FRED which may still be heard from and other whack a mole ideas in the tropics.
There was a gust to 36.9 kts at the buoy south of Galveston last night, but this is not anything I would clamor to classify . In fact the place to watch in my opinion is north of the Bahamas.
The peak gusts of 61 mph at ACY marina and Lewes Delaware mark the 3rd time this hurricane season a system with African wave input has blown up north of 35 north in northeast coastal waters and impacted the coast with tropical storm type conditions..and no name. I have never seen such an occurrence ( 3) in a hurricane season. I have seen much lesser events named when they occurred. Certainly this storm was much worse than Hanna was last year in these areas for instance. And highest wind gusts, and remember folks, this all occured as the center was approaching.. not well away from it ( the center was over the Delaware bay buoy while the south Jersey shore was getting it worse and we presented the data from the buoy showing the classic signature of a warm core cyclone passage with the rapid drop off of pressure and increase in wind.. and then sudden calm followed by the increase) were higher than in Bill were warnings were issued, and Claudette ( which should have been named and was) In any case all these storms have shared in common rapid in close increase in convection as per the pre-season, and current idea.
thanks for reading ciao for now ****
As opposed to an "incomplete idiot"?
stormt 9:13 AM CDT on September 12, 2009
i think we have grace by sunday in the gulf of mexico..pressures are continuing to fall..winds gusts to 41 knots reported at lake front marina a few minutes ago.....Stormno
Do not quote trolls. Next to making you upset, that is what they are after.
If you have a problem with a troll post, hit the "-" button. It will disappear. If you think it truly egregious, hit the "!" button and an admin will look at it.
Do not reply. Do not quote. Or YOU will end up on a lot of ignore lists. Just let.it.go.
A word to the wise. (And if you are not wise, welcome to my Ignore list, no matter the quality of your "regular" posts).
from my blog
A third non-tropical feature, which has caught the attention of some, is producing a region of moderate to strong convection near 30N/55W. This feature was associated with an area of low pressure but the first QuikSCAT pass this morning reveal that has opened up and signs are it’s being absorbed into frontal boundary. I will monitor the area for any signs of changes but I don’t expect much from it.
This is his blog, go ahead and set up your own blog with a Rita posting and see how many people will read it...
uggg just can't make everybody happy...
One of these days I'm going to convert the VHS-c video I brought back from the aftermath of Hugo so I can post some stills.
The almost complete destruction of the Francis_Marion_National_Forest
is one thing I'll never forget. I stood in one spot & there was not a single tree standing for as far as the eye could see in any direction.
Go 'Fish!
In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here"
I can relate to this quote from Dr. Masters very easily..
It was Thursday the 25th of Aug,2005 as we watched Katrina Become better organized and that forecast track shifted over the Loop current..I told her with TS/Hurricane Cindy,still fresh in my mind from Early July,
,.."I dont know,This one ,seems to have danger written all over her"..lets start getting things ready just in case."
I told my wife Teresa"..
They left,her and my Kids,early Sunday morning..little did I know then,we wouldnt reunite in Memphis,till Sept 16th.
We were Lucky..
Yeah! I remember riding through FM forest not long after Hugo and it was absolutely horrible! All of those big tall trees just destroyed!
get "Our ass outta town " Been through, Francis, Jeanne, Wilma, Not terrible storms, but scared the BeeGeebies out of me and us all in Palm Beach county.
HUGO..Definitely was a Big Impact,..we Honeymooned in Boone,N Carolina in August 1990,thats 4500 Ft Up way in Nwestern NC.
I was shocked to see the Forest and Homes that far inland ,mowed down Like a Lawnmower had passed thru..
I have some pics of that somewhere,and will find them as well and post in a entry one day.
Paint Shop Pro.
I use to have a software that could draw fronts but I cant seem to get it work on Vista 64 bit since the software I think is 32 bit.
That I do know,..Ivan,Georges and Dennis all had NOLA evacuating..and each time I stayed behind as they veered right all of them,but to be sure..from here out by the lake,..one could see the Curved Towering Cyclone signature far off on the Horizon..and I knew folks were getting it bad,...we all should take time today to reflect upon what occurred one year ago today.
Ike slowly slid by here , and for 2 days..yea 2 days one could see his tops far south.
I remember saying this one day before He Hit Texas,that's a Big,Big Hurricane.
He certainly was.
Cool! I'd love to see those pics. I know Boone, NC. I'm livng in Greensboro now.
It may attempt to do so near coastal Louisiana but all the models and the official guidance keeps it over land as it tracks ne or ene across the SE USA.
My best friend in my Life from youth to now Lives in Boone,N.C.
Love it there,..if we ever retire from NOLA ..years from now,..thats where it most Likely will be.
Nothing like 60's in August there.And just enough winter for me.
I grew up in Xenia, Ohio and saw one of the strongest tornadoes that destroyed our lovely city, but nothing compared to the destruction I saw after Andrew. it was equal to a thousand tornadoes. Destruction everywhere.
LOL! I know that's right! Get away from all the heat and humidity! I wanted to go to App State for grad school, but they didn't offer me any money. Had to go to UNCG where the money was. Still, it's only 1 1/2 hours away from me so I'll be up there doing some hiking next month when the leaves get pretty!
This home is just below Anahuac,near Double Bayou..
12 ft of surge rolled thru it..
It'd stay Fred; same happened with Ana earlier this season once it regenerated from a remnant low.
I had eight large trees down in the yard, however they all fell parellel to the house. 3 18 inch dia cedars snapped of about 10 foot up and two oaks were up rooted 1 oak snapped off 15 foot up and fell in front of the front door. No damage to the house or roof.
My elect was not restored untill Sept 29th however when Gus was out in the gulf I bought a large generator and had 4 6 gal boat tanks full of gas along with both vehicals.
Since I have a water well I bathed in the lake to cool off. I also bought 4 30 gal trash cans before the storm that I filled with fresh water before the lights went out. I also had to carry 5 gal buckets up from the lake to flush the toilet.
I also bought 8 cases of beer because I thought the beer trucks may not run for a while. My picture is not that accurate. I am quite a bit older than the picture and the beer mug should be half emty.
Back in 05 I left and spent 12 hours to go 60 miles on the road to out run Rita, that was early Thursday the storm came in on Friday evening, Never again!
As long as it does not interact/merge with any feature, it would be called Fred.
Xenia,Ohio Tornadoes..that was a catastrophe . Many Lives Lost and well...we've come along way since then in Lead time for Tornadoes.
"Calamity knows no Borders" I always say.
It will find you,no matter the region or Locale. We all have to deal with it..
In my blog on Hurricane Prep,there is a section on Mental Health issues post calamity.
Today,..I know many thousands are dealing with what occurred in Texas a year ago.
I think we'll get to Kate this year, plus
90L in May would make 12 storms.
you can still see some of the effects of HUGO down in FMNF
I don't doubt it.
As for the Xenia tornadoes, (April 3rd, 1974, 3:40 pm. ) I still have dreams abouth that terrible afternoon. Lost a few close friends there. Two were at the A&W Root Beer stand. Luckily my family had minor damage.
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