New African disturbance 96L likely to develop
A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.
The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.
North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.
I'll have an update Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yeah, well - I will definitely be keeping an eye on it just in case... :)
Yep, watching and hoping for a FSU loss. FSU at the Miami 3 with :36 left...
Oddly enough, I am going to start chasing storms in a couple years. ;)
Really Egregious Football
The upper level winds are unfavorable right now
but that will change in a few days. Anything
that spins up will go north, which means Tx/La
border. The storms sitting there will just sit and stew until then. (I hope I got that right.)
It is Greg Bostick on KFDM and he tends to be very conservative. I wonder if this is to whom TexasHurricane was referring.
REF= Really Egregious Football
What a game. Good night all, and hopefully Fred goes out to sea...
Wow guys. What a game. First time I watch college football really intently - dodging the blowouts - and wow!
I'm hooked!
lol ... only if the college season were not mated with the pro season ...
Horrible call on the non pass interference with 3 minutes left changed the whole game
I hate when officials decide a great game like this
goodnight!
doesnt matter what happens after that, the whole game was changed on the blown call
Well this one was the other way around, horrible call, FSU would have had a 1st down inside Miami's 20 with 3 minutes left; instead they settled for a FG which changed everything
calm down, calm down, you win some, you lose some. REF= really egregious football
Hi. Yes, there's supposed to be something down there that we need to watch. Hopefully it won't be anything serious. I think the GFS is the only model that develops it. Hoping it'll just be rain.
IMO if it isn't (which I think it isn't) it should be, it's a definite game changer, right there with turnovers
Hi, yes I had heard this as well....
No its not, but it was clear; defender never looked for the ball and had his hands on the receiver. Since it was a 3rd down FSU had to kick a FG to only go up 3; if it had been called like it should FSU would have had a 1st down inside Miami's 20 with 3 minutes left. That changes things big time.
goodnight
I think it should be challengable as well. The officials make me nuts! Of course they make up new penalties all the time just for my team. The Roy Williams Rule. Emmit Smith Rule, Eric williams Rule, etc. etc etc. Lol
Seen a lot of those in a lot of games...
thats why i say it should be challengeable or at least reviewable for officials
so how bout them cowboys ... :P
Lol. We'll see Sunday. :)
Amen! haha
Goodnight. Sorry. Between football and computer problems having trouble keeping caught up. Wonder if I'm too old to have ADD? Lol. Take Care. :)
ha definitely a weather blog, but we get distracted, sorry :P
hello
ensembles are a number of runs of the same model with slight difference in each run. The slight difference can be made to the physics or "guts", if you will, of each model run, or to the data that tells them what the atmosphere is like at the beginning of their simulation (the initial conditions). They show how the models respond to slightly different initial conditions. If given only a touch of different initial conditions, the ensemble "members" produce wildly different solutions then that lowers confidence in the model forecast. If in spite of their slight differences the models come up with more-or-less the same solution, that increases confidence in the forecast. Ensembles produce a sense of the predictability of the atmosphere at any given time.
how are you?
Well looking at the GFS we have three of em coming. One towards the E GOM, one in SW LA and still the one we've been talking about straddling TX/LA on Monday. Lol. Take your pick I guess. Yep as always wait and see. :)
That's what it's looking like.
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