New African disturbance 96L likely to develop
A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.
The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.
North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.
I'll have an update Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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12Z NAM
An extended surface trough is expected to form in the eastern Gulf by 48hrs. The models have been inconsistent on where the predominant low pressure centre will form, which is the NAM forecast have been here-and-there with this system. The ECMWF is now expecting it to merge with the Texan low.
Well, the tropical low depicted by the NAM in the Western Gulf is supported by several other computer models so this could be an area to watch closely in the coming days. It seems that wind shear will relax across the Gulf during the next 48 to 72 hours which could allow for something to develop and given that the thunderstorm action has been favoring the Western Gulf, thats where development would be more likely to occur. But, for now, I want to wait and see this actually evolve before becoming sold.
Now, the tropical low depicted by the NAM near Southern Florida is not being supported by any other model I have seen thus far. It will be interesting to see whether any other models start showing this in coming runs. But I have found the NAM does a great job with Florida's complex weather, so much so I use it as my primary guidance over the GFS in developing my forecasts. For now, I can't comment too much on this possible scenario other than saying lets wait and see other model runs and to see whether a catalyst for such development comes about.
rock on!
someone should develop the Phantom II!
I think you quoted the wrong post but
Models expect 1-2 inches as you may now, models underestimate precip
so the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) should be utilized also (up to 4 inches)
24 hr - QPF
LOL...i thought it was me, for a second!
btw...beautiful daughter...in the galoshes!
who?
do you actually use the utilizes the NAm when it comes tropical forecasting?
The NAM 00Z is currently running...we'll see
No, I just you use it to see if there any outside possibilities. The NOGAPS and ECMWF is also hinting this, but expect it to be negligible.
Yes it is... Also StormW and 456 has made comments about the same area yesterday and today....
how long will it be until technology obsolesces the term "currently running"? i suppose the models will become more detailed and offset advances in computing technology...truly amazing times we live in!
thanks. she's a trip!!! she loves her "shoots" -- that's what she calls them rather than boots.
ok
yep, my kiddos always wanted to go stomp in the puddles! LOL
kingzfan104. he was cursing,then told me to shut up because i asked him to please refrain from using God's name in vain.
it all started with him telling iceman not to post short posts. he was looking for a fight.
Any parent knows there is no better gift from God.
Priceless.
stupid troll
man, there is no greater truth in life!!! :)
see you tomorrow afternoon
yes i just replied no, but now i'm starting to think you are correct.
Yes I think 5AM they will name him....
Seriously?
...No, really, @&*!ing seriously? C'mon.
Zzzz...what..huh?
yep, they are our JOY!
Keep doing what you're doing.
You are an inspiration for many.
hi guys just dropping in TD7 is looking good moving WSW trying to get away from that trough I think it wants to fit Fl like its other brothers and sisters in the past I will not be surprised if the forecast track moves more and more west possible hurricane south of 17 and west of 50 and this is a guess and my thoughts on TD7
actually you cant get away from something you havent met yet.
The wsw motion is a result of high pressure will probably being forced southward due the advancing trough resulting in a downward motion and wsw motion.
Irony I call it.
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