Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane
Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.
The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.
Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.
Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.
Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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"what ever happens in the Caribbean, stays in the Caribbean"
Once a tropical system becomes a remnant low...its chance of redeveloping is under 10%...if it does have the perfect ideal conditions...it happens..but rarely... more often a midlevel center works its way down to the surface and kicks out the old center.
Now the southern portion of the cone bypasse all land to the south. Only way Erika survives past 72 hours IMHO...
If she were to go north of the islands, the westerlies are forecast to be quite strong = sheared to death.
Over the islands of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola = land induced dissipation
From his blog above...
"Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon."
Do we have to find some sort of reason to always bash someone? Its his opinion, doesn't mean its right. I could say Erika might be bringing green eggs and ham to the Islands, does that automatically make it fact? No, just my opinion.
Using the point lacks artistry lad; have you seen the steering?!
Oh so true.. no massive property damage.. no ravaged city s... no fatality lists 1000's long... ohhh such a dismal season.. where is the carnage....
Poof.. your gone
What do you call the mouse shadow on the second moon?
We call that one Muad'Dib.
Oh, and by the way, that's in the face of 30 knots of westerly shear. LMAO.
If you are a thrill seeker(which i'm not) this season as been pretty pathetic...with storms going out to sea and non-closed LLC or naked swirls it has just been pathetic thats why downcasting is the way to go be skeptical about every storm until it shows it can hold its own its the only way to be right
What if Erika keeps moving west? haha.. Longshot but anythings possible.
Right to the ignore list buddy. Tell that to the family of the person killed in Claudette bub. Or the family of that small boy who was washed out to sea by Danny's waves and who they've still not found. You really have no clue do you?
I've noticed occasionally some of the ads on this site have questionable active scripting. This problem is not just unique to this site. The pay per click ad suppliers like Google Adwords need to start vetting their ads better from their clients.
Link
She has a Good Up Pulse Like Last Night that had even the featured Bloggers crying Havoc,but unless she can Find a way to Maintain a CENTRAL CoC within the Overall Cyclonic Flow,..well
Shes never going to be all that some would Like her to Be.
I have to admit that Erika's chances of strengthening are not looking good -- but I will continue to watch just in case.
It almost looks as if the wave behind it absorbs what is left of Erika on its way by.
All frigging day,.. Ive spoken again,to the Sites Highest authority on it. Id expect we may see some words on that soon,here.
Hopefully.
Exactly what I've said, will continue to monitor Erika
Good to see ya coming around to reality reed.
Always read the er,NHC words ,..that helps a great deal as to whats occurring always.
Amen brother!
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