Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane
Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.
The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.
Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.
Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.
Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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From what I've seen, it's very possible. In fact, I this new center may become dominant. That would likely take Erika farther north and fend off dissipation. For now.
I also can't quote anyone tonight, which is new.
The NHC forecast appears to be in favor of the northernmost circulation. This could be something only if it "does a Jeanne" (see my last comment). However, if the southern center defies the odds and dominates, things could get interesting, and quick. The SSTs are higher, wind shear is lower, and the environment is just overall more favorable for development.
Dr M posted a note earlier that McAfee has a false positive for this site.
I don't have any, but look here, & scroll down to book reviews.
Yeppers, just off to the west of the new thunderstorm blow up, imo.
It will have a better chance but will still be combating shear
I'm in Merritt Island, East Central Florida.
Shear would likely accompany it if it gets near the Bahamas. I doubt it would be much of a surprise let alone much of a storm.
mhm it could happen, there convection is catching up to the current LLC, and the Northern one is erupting..
LOL..your way in over yer head on that sport..
Dr. Lyons saying that TS Erica will be TD at 11pm update...any thoughts?????
oh ok, I saw "indy" in your name, and thought indiana, but i believe that it is your name, Sindy? lol sorry
Are those ghosts??? re post 1555 Well the shear sure has been ghosts busting.
Good obs imho nyhurricane
I think that the northern circulation has the potential for some minor to moderate intensification, but will have a harder time with shear and dry air. The southern circulation may surprise us, though...
Thanks. Erika should be very interesting to watch, and a great resource for tropical cyclone research, by the way.
If I was in Indiana tracking tropical cyclones (and I DON'T knock anyone in an inland state that does :P) I would have WAY too much time on my hands!
Either Erika no longer has a low pressure center or the new one has taken over NE of Guadeloupe.
I agree with that IF the NHC doesnt designate the circulation under the burst of convection the dominant one.
I disagree, I Believe its finally found its center, why? Because it has convection right over it and its not in a hostile environment.
It might be downgraded to a TD just because the old center will likely fall apart due to this new one, but then it should gradually gain strenght (as the models suggest) as it moves WNW towards the bahamas.
I think Erika will be downgraded to a TD @ 11 p.m. And I don't think it makes much difference if a new circulation center forms to the north. There may be a few twists and turns with her track, and Hispaniola has to watch for flooding rains. But as a strong, organized tropical cyclone I don't think Erika has much of a future.
...And I hope you are right and I will go to bed now with visions of dust bunnies swirling around in the Atlantic...Good Night!
I wouldnt hold dearly to that anticyclone. Its future is rather uncertain.
Currently its located to the SW of the main convection so its not in a great position to help.
haha, well, the reason I asked is because I live in Indiana... =P ha but I have a good reason to do this since I'm going to Purdue for meteorology
What most are forgetting is that this is a LARGE Cv Circ that has always had Multiple CoC's within the Mean Overall Circ..thats whats been its problem from Genesis.
What its doing is the same as Last evening..One coc is trying to Dominate.
Until One does in the Center of the Overall Mean Circ..it will repeat the last 24,or spin Out,.or Consolidate a New central CoC in the end.
00 UTC Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis
Viewing: 1551 - 1601
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