Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane
Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.
The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.
Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.
Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.
Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 — Blog Index
I think Erika is infecting us with full-moon-itis!
Thanks for the reply... Glad to see/hear about responsible reporting.
I asked this earlier and didn't get a response.
Is the Show/Hide post button working for everyone else? TIA
working for me
No real indication of circulation.
I have tried that and could not stand it because I was not here LOL I was "Nutz" because of it....
So just wondering what you thought about this storm????
working for me :)
I was thinking 2007 only in that ATL storms I, K, & M all went *poof* mid Basin, O in the Gomex & J too in the N Atl. It's GW LOL
Then there was Noel. Story sound familiar?
McAfee Avert Labs has found a false detection with JS/Exploit-Packed.c.gen and will be releasing the 5729 DAT Files to correct this issue. The false detection is being seen on websites containing certain types of javascript obfuscation
see: http://vil.mcafeesecurity.com/vil/content/v_218755.htm
Pls pls mark the so called center of Erica..sorry to be so confused but I am!!!
Works for me too..
BTW, I never got a chance to finish scanning with google earth, but are the Islands Erika passing over at the moment have moutains on them?
Just because the convection looks even MORE distorted than normal...
LOL, I can't even quote myself.
Thanks, I'm still learning these things.
It does look strong.
Wow, look at her. Wilma was a beautiful storm, perhaps once in a century.
Great minds think alike, I guess.
HWRF 102knot hurricane plowing into south/central florida 18Z lol
Not agreeing witht he gungho HWRF, but that track would be worst case scenario for FL, very similar to Jeanne once she got to PR.
Station 13001
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 11.50N 23W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 2 Sep 2009 21:00:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (240°) at 8.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Water Temperature: 82.0 F
Have to wait for it to get a little further W.
I'll await the fix.
It looks like the convection is splitting, kind of like cell division. There will probably be two centers of circulation, and one will eventually dominate the other.
Those islands are small and plus that is not her true center anymore, that center is dying out and the new ball of convection is over the newer center of circulation.
Also no problem with quotes etc.
Using FF3 with Adblock and NoScript, ZoneAlarm and Avast
Not using McAfee
It looks like shear is decreasing simply looking at the satellite images of the new convection and convection to the southwest of the newer and stronger center of low pressure. This southern band of convection could be the beginning of a southern outflow channel. It is trying to spiral in towards the new ball of convection. She is ready to take off again and this northern relocation will help her stay away from shear.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
YEAP and all flags are now off on the cimms site things are about to get interesting get you caffine ready for another good dmax tonight where the north will be the area to watch as it takes over imo
I was also thinking of that as well. Pretty interesting.
Yup...The CIMSS convergence map is showing evidence of that. Notice the elongated convective south of the northern COC axis.
Yep. Although most storms exiting Africa look ominous, until they hit the water. If it can hold istelf together...
BTW - The gray (or grey) in the center of the storm is not missing data, it is data that is off the chart.
Viewing: 1401 - 1451
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 — Blog Index