Little change to Erika; Jimena makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane
Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.
The forecast for Erika
Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.
Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.
Hurricane Jimena hits Baja
Hurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.
Figure 2. Hurricane Jimena on Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2009, as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
California fire webcams
As I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think we found an internet newbie.
it has the 61W, 17N center as dominant, which i think we are starting to see occur. this is the best the convergence has been since the storm has formed. i think we will see some reintensification tonight which should pull it more north
It should reach Florida by Thanksgiving!
Its consistent.
:D = smileing, and :P means sticking your tounge out. they both are good things hahaha
Ease up people.
Just a question...all good.
Means that well,...."the Spice wont flow from Erika much Longer as a TS."
They could relocate it again. Probable. At 11PM or 2AM or 5AM, depends on how it holds.
Wow. I never thought that when I said a "slow crawl" into the Caribbean this morning that Erika would be listening LOL
Save me a wing..LOL
Bene Gesserit Reverend Mother...Erika
go to www.google.com and search "emoticons"
Consistently wrong. Goes from 35 to 57 knots in 6 hours.
Gobble-Gobble.
I would be too since yer coming to the Dome. Saints have won 3 and have scored 45 and 38 Points the last 2 weeks and only given up 21..LOL
Regulars should only play a quarter,..so Beer Sales wont be as High as usual. Ill be the Guy in sec 211 with the funny Hat and Binocular Cam,for er..watching the cheerleaders,I mean game
LMAO! Good one!! I give up even trying to think what Erika might do next, though I did say from the start that Erika would probably make it into Eastern Caribbean,now I really don't know what to think, but I don't think Erika is finished just yet, I wouldn't turn my back on her for one minute.
Tropical Storm Erika
Shear map proves current marginal to somewhat favorable conditions for Erika tonight
Shear map
It went from 35 to 50 last night in a few hours, it's all possible... though honestly... unexpected and nearly impossible to happen =P
LOL LOL
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Wherever the center is, the weather is down around Martinique, and it looks like we have a cruise ship, the Royal Caribbean Adventure Of The Seas, that's in the midst of the approaching worst of the weather. It's presently located at 14.1N and 61.1WLink
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Those passengers are in for a bit of an adventure.
see Kevin, epac
do the models like this take into account the terrain below the storm like mountains vs. flat land? not just land or ocean but the shape, size, dimensions of the land the storm travels over? thanks
"Le Raizet Airport, GP (Airport)
Updated: 9 min 56 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
82 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the South
Pressure: 29.80 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 91 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1500 ft
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 26000 ft
(Above Ground Level)"
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg
could be one of two possibilities
1. it is another LLC circulation that is now in the mix
2. It is the MLC detaching from LLC meaning a non vertically stacked system and will likely weaken to TD tonight
also if LLC weakens this MLC can work down to surface and erika would thus restrengthen
lol
-90C tops.
Circulation appears to be emerging now.
12:12 AM GMT en Septiembre 03, 2009
Our thought at this point, from looking at the tickets, is that McAfee updated their virus files today and they've once again included JavaScript that is compressed with the compression tools we use, in their list. This is a false alarm.
Jeff Masters
That would really surprise me as Cruise Ships have avoidance software and The Best available Weather Info..by Law.
Yes, some Antivirus softwares tend to have many false positives.
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