Category 4 Hurricane Jimena Approaches Baja California
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. Hurricane Jimena is the main story for the North American tropics with satellite-estimated winds of 145 mph. This makes Jimena a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. However, later today, we will actually have measured winds for this storm. The Plan of the Day indicates that an Air Force reconnaissance mission to Jimena has been scheduled for the middle of the day Aug. 31. Hurricane watches have been posted for the southern Baja peninsula.
Jimena continues to have an impressive presentation on satellite with a compact core and cold cloud tops. Late in the afternoon, the TRMM satellite flew directly over Jimena, and part of the central core was in the field of view of TRMM's radar.
Fig. 1 TRMM overpass at 2355Z Aug 30 showing surface rain fall rates derived from microwave radiometry and Doppler radar. Image courtesy of NRL
This shows that Jimena has a a very tight eyewall, consistent with its intensity, with a possible eyewall replacement cycle starting soon. If the cycle starts, Jimena will likely weaken some, but this is still a dangerous storm. The AF reconnaissance mission will provide NHC's forecasts a good deal of information about the storm and improve the computer forecasts (There really isn't much in the way of measurements out there.) It is also important to note that as Jimena moves northward, it will move over cooler water, which is not favorable for maintaining its intensity.
The current track forecast calls for Jimena to make landfall on the western coast of Baja southwest of La Paz. Given the angle between Jimena's track and Baja's coastline, there is a wide spread of possible landfall locations. People living in this area need to be making hurricane preparations now.
Invest 94L Invest 94L is still out there, moving westwards to the Lower Antilles. People in the Lesser Antilles still need to keep an eye on this storm, as tropical storm formation is possible with this storm. This is still considerable uncertainty on the track of this feature as different models have different initializations of the storm. However, the Plan of the Day indicates that reconnaissance missions into Invest 94L could start as soon as Tuesday, September 1, which would give everybody more data to understand what's going on.
Reader Comments
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Good thx u? Nice blog today, ty.
OMG. lol
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
lmao
Only have time for a couple of posts.
From the Quikscat pass this morning it did not even have a noticeable low at the surface. All I saw was a relatively weak convergence line oriented from the SW to the NE.
The Sat images suggest a surface low near the SW side of the convection where inflow can be seen. This would be near 14.5N 52W
There is an anticyclone overhead just off to the West of the system which should help it to organize further.
As for motion the ball of convection appears to be moving due West at this time. Last night Pat made a few posts to the effect that the ULL had pulled the entire system to the N and I believe now that he was right about that.
However, whether that motion has now ceased and a more Westerly track resumed will need a few more visible frames to resolve.
Ana, Bill Claudette, Danny those were named so far.
Anybody notice the ull in the Bahamas seems to be winding down to the surface? Its pretty obvious to me we will have 95l shortly!
Still an ULL......look at the Vorticity maps....nothing close to the surface at all
Hey Kman,
Do you still feel this will make it into the Carib? I remember last night you were thinking so. Newest model runs seem to take it more west but just north of the islands.
I think the NHC may wait for another quickscat pass. Just to confirm the presence of a LLC.
good good.
it does appear 94L will clip us.
Since we last spoke about this 94L took what appears to be a straight run to the N last night from about 12 to 14N which will obviously make a difference to the track.
If the current stated motion of NW is correct then it should miss the islands but I am not convinced that NW is being maintained.
I still think it will be a close call.
Weak but there.
Hey Aliana.
Hows the weather been at your place lately.
not too hot I hope.
Did you get the WU-mail I sent you?
I wish - Trin wouldn't be bad a choice either
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Apparently theres no logic in you.
95
i am from st lucia
Definately a close call. And yea im not convinced on the high coming in either. This season has just been nothing but troughs.
Thanks Kman. Always look forward to what you have to say.
Good morning.
94L continues to tease and confound !. Have to get to the office now but will come on later.
Have a good day.
Hey Aussie, its been hot and humid! LOL.. typical Louisiana weather. And yep I just checked my mail, fixing to write back.
Why would the NHC not be concerned with 94L they have a recon scheduled for tomorrow and a high chance of development, if they were not concerned why run models or fly recon into it then?
We may have TD5 (correct me) by 11am.
is that No. 95 on your "ignore" list? lol
Link
There is one BIG thing missing from that map. It's called a HUGE ULL. If you were going by your shear map you would think not that bad. Have to look at the big picture. ECMWF is showing Mach 3 shear ahead of 94L for the NEXT 168 hours!!!
Looking at that image it will be a close call. Will the high build in and storm go west? Or will a trough take it North... time will tell (I hate being patient.)
I am not liking the timing with this one.
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