Category 4 Hurricane Jimena Approaches Baja California
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. Hurricane Jimena is the main story for the North American tropics with satellite-estimated winds of 145 mph. This makes Jimena a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. However, later today, we will actually have measured winds for this storm. The Plan of the Day indicates that an Air Force reconnaissance mission to Jimena has been scheduled for the middle of the day Aug. 31. Hurricane watches have been posted for the southern Baja peninsula.
Jimena continues to have an impressive presentation on satellite with a compact core and cold cloud tops. Late in the afternoon, the TRMM satellite flew directly over Jimena, and part of the central core was in the field of view of TRMM's radar.
Fig. 1 TRMM overpass at 2355Z Aug 30 showing surface rain fall rates derived from microwave radiometry and Doppler radar. Image courtesy of NRL
This shows that Jimena has a a very tight eyewall, consistent with its intensity, with a possible eyewall replacement cycle starting soon. If the cycle starts, Jimena will likely weaken some, but this is still a dangerous storm. The AF reconnaissance mission will provide NHC's forecasts a good deal of information about the storm and improve the computer forecasts (There really isn't much in the way of measurements out there.) It is also important to note that as Jimena moves northward, it will move over cooler water, which is not favorable for maintaining its intensity.
The current track forecast calls for Jimena to make landfall on the western coast of Baja southwest of La Paz. Given the angle between Jimena's track and Baja's coastline, there is a wide spread of possible landfall locations. People living in this area need to be making hurricane preparations now.
Invest 94L Invest 94L is still out there, moving westwards to the Lower Antilles. People in the Lesser Antilles still need to keep an eye on this storm, as tropical storm formation is possible with this storm. This is still considerable uncertainty on the track of this feature as different models have different initializations of the storm. However, the Plan of the Day indicates that reconnaissance missions into Invest 94L could start as soon as Tuesday, September 1, which would give everybody more data to understand what's going on.
Reader Comments
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Hey, Mik I really need your help. Could you please tell justalurker, I'm really a great guy and didn't mean anything by that, but a compliment. C'mon now. I don't want him to think I'm a troll. Didn't know he would be so sensative.
Hi Aussie - now you're just being scary.
Nice graphic though, link?
WeatherStudent would have claimed credit for writing that.
If people on this blog don't know by now that you're a sweetheart, they're just not paying attention!
link
I bet that the advises will begin from ERIKA as tropical storm...
LOL.
Thanks Mik. I have had to sing that song a lot in my life. Now back to the weather. There appears to be another weak low above 94L as well as the one above PR. Could that is what might be pulling 94L a tad north this morning? Doesn't look to strong. I don't see much mention of it.
On that it really looks like it moved due west in the last frames.
Japan missed a landfall but storm warnings are still on for the east coast of Japan up to the Miyagi Prefecture
did he ever fess up to that or did he just ignore it?? I hope he gets banned. that was colossally moronic on his part.
peerharps even a little south of due west
This year east coast surfers have had a good swell the last two weekends. I'm waxing up for next weekend. Pray fer surf!
winds must not be high enough...is there a buoy nearby?
Definition of a Tropical Storm from Answers.com:
A tropical cyclone in which the surface wind speed is at least 34, but not more than 63 knots.
Motion between WNW to NW is expected the next few days.
A couple people mentioned it. Didn't notice 'til you guys brought it up. Still waiting for an expert opinion.
Ouch!! You guys never let anything go. Deservedly, though. Couldn't believe that yesterday, myself. Good article, where did you find that one IKE
omg..P451 starting early this morning..comedy hour usually doesn't start after 2:30, when school is out..btw spilled my coffee on my keyboard, you owe me one..
thats wat is expected,,,, doesnt mean its going to do exactly that
Buoy 41040 is at 14.4N, 53.0W, just west of 94L.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 79.5 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 89.6 °F
Thanks Ike!
correct.
tafb and others place the low pressure system at 15 degrees north. A buoy to the sw of 94L's "center" is showing winds out the NE. If the surface center was remotely organized, wind direction at that buoy NNW or NW, not NE.
Also as the "center" of 94L approaches that buoy (41040), pressure continues to rise, which suggests plenty of disorganization (at the surface) with 94L.
thx in advance for replys!
Yes, he apologized.
LOL!
Lol at the last 1, he wants 1 doesn't he?
94L looks better and better every time i watch this loop
From their website.
Average the motion over 6 to 12 hours and it will. Little jogs here and there and reformations are expected with a system in this organizational state.
I'm not sure anything is doing what it was expected to. The storm doesn't look like it's moving the direction they say it is. The models keep shifting back and forth. The NHC says the trough will dissipate in the gulf. The NWS says the trough will back up as a warm front. Some models develop a storm off the trough in the GOM. And the only thing that made sense was Accuweathers forecast. Lol.
Well...well...well.
94L looks to have really taken advantage of the DMAX last night.
The world must be coming to an end...
Yes it is
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