Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
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have fun! stay safe!
awwww. that's sweet!
What happen to StormW. I was visiting my kids and miss this.
he posted a pic of the geico lizard. i guess they considered that advertisement??? not really sure why they banned him for that, but that is what got him banned.
what are you doing
You are kidding me!!! Crazy! I read alot of things on this blog that people should get banned for and don't. That's just plain wrong!
Models suggest that the subtropical ridge to the north will build back to the west after five days, so the Gulf Coast should keep an eye, but this is nothing imminent, and panic should not be an option.
check it ouut
I asked storm earlier today if he thought it would enter the GOM. He said no due to the current steering systems. I'm not wording it exactly like he did, but that is basically what he said.
November only has 30 days.
Did he really get banned, or did he just pretend to get banned in a conspiracy with Admin to show how serious they are about off-topic pics?
Don't be silly. Panic is ALWAYS an option.
Where are you located? It rarely gets below the low 70's at night during the summer where I live. Cool temps sound kind of nice!
You might have to be right on spot with your location as this thing has a very tiny core of hurricane forces winds.Last time i looked at the NHC advisory they only extend out about 20-25 miles or so.Satellite appearence is a bid on the ragged side right now but upper conditions are very favorable hopefully it wont choke up on a eyewall replacement cycle which may hold back intensity but it good very well try to make a run at cat 5 intensity.
Watch out for the flood potential. adrian
I totaly agree here.
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
I got banned possibly for a pic of a cloud shaped like an elephant. In Dr. Masters' blog he discussed a cloud shaped like a wave on Bill's eyewall. Danny kind of looked like an elephant to some people, and it took off from there.
So I can see how posting a Geico lizard pic can get you banned.
Actually, if the the personal attacks / bickering rule were enforced as strictly as the pics...
I was told that talking about a ban can get you re-banned, so if you don't see me for another 24hrs, you know what happened.
That appears to be the COC (Center of Circulation) that is not the eye. Looks like 94L is starting to slowly come together!!
I agree. Slowly but surely she is getting her act together it seems.
hmm thanks thats a nice looking coc pretty tight than we have seen in other invest this could really raamp up fast with a coc like that dmax a comin
pwnd.
wow, amazing i never got banned for how random i am
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