Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
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"AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH."
And QuikScat has the ability to show a closed circulation where there is none.
I don't disagree that it probably going to be a TD in the next day. But there is a chance it does nothing. And in this business any chance is a chance to consider.
The Doughnut rolls on, wishing some day it might become cream-filled.
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. From the 8:00
StormW has been Banned for 24 Hours for the GEICO Lizard pic,so he and I advise all to belay any off topic Humor Pic for the extended busy week ahead.
As you were Senior Chief StormW says,..He'll be back in 23.45 hrs,or in his Blog till then.
That outlook has failed to verify for a long time now. I only pay attention to what is actually happening out there and the fact of the matter is that 94L persistently refuses to go off to the WNW or points further N.
Ehh, you might be thinking double eyewall (one inside the other)
Nooooo wayyyy, like I said the first time it got posted.
Yes indeed....I say anything is possible.
later
Good Question.I also use thew Floater RGB Loop to check out motion...check the Lat/Lon Boxes
See you all in the morning! Have a great night!
The models are out to lunch and as for extrap well, short term motions do not a trend make.
The area in the GOM is under a tremendous amount of shear, no threat at all! The areas to watch are, at the moment 94L and down the road, African wave!!! Can't wait to see the latter in a couple days! It already looks teriffic.
Start the frigging Pumps COE's..
whoa...thanks for the heads up Pat.
It's also visibly gaining latitude on the precipitable water imagery.
It won't hit Virginia! We have an invisible hurricane shield :D
I am jealous. We got nary a drop out of this frotal passage.
You must shop at the same hurricane shield store as we do down in Georgia.
I have sent a inquiry as to that post by WS,..seems the Table needs balancing for sure.
94L is not vertically stacked. Much of the cloud cover is displaced to the NE of the surface low along with the moisture field but if you all think it is going that way then so be it.
I agree with you. Not seeing a north component as yet....
Hurricane Wilma at her peak
Hurricane Jimena earlier today
Now I want to say that Wilma was the most impressive storm I have ever seen, and rightfully so with being the most intense pressure reading ever recorded in an Atlantic Basin Hurricane - 882mb, Jimena lowest pressure was 945mb and at 11pm it will be 940mb I believe. So with that said, Jimena's appearance is much more ragged than Hurricane Wilma's and never void of convection in her outflow pattern. Just a tremendous hurricane.
Check out the winds thru the Levels in this Line atmo..
I hate that sound
I got banned for 24 hours for an off-topic pic Friday. From now on, I link to my humorous pics.
Hi Pottery
These weak systems are a pain in the you know what. They appear to be going in several different directions at once.
Weak as it is I just don't see what would pull a Twave to the WNW. The low level flow controls the motion.
I feel like "Publishers Clearinghouse" for the Banned.
Banned on the Run
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