Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
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Convection is weak though, especially over the center. NHC always looks forward to that so that's the reason I think they won't be naming it tonight. My forecast has been butchered.. DAAARN YOU MOTHERNATURE!!
ABNT20 KNHC 302331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
ABNT20 KNHC 302331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
looking at Jimena, and the track & intensity, its not going to be nice for those on the peninsula. Can someone tell me what its like there? many people? development etc? I don't think they are used to hurricanes, as the historical tracks show none with this strength ever hitting in this area.
its very close to TD
all it needs is a good D-max and we could have one tomorrow
I meant keeping an eye for it :o) sorry got carried over... I live in the MS Gulf Coast so I am not wishcasting just in case LOL Nyway you all should have at least the basic stuff for the season already..
If you look at the latest wind shear maps, you can see the upper-level anticyclone establishing itself over Invest 94L. So, to answer your question, it has already formed.
It's very hard to find a center, but in my opinion it's still around 12N
Oooh. Ok. Didn't recognize it. :) Duh. Lol. Thanks. I thought it should be on there somewhere.
wow that close...
11.0N
51W?
That can't be correct... or good if true =(
My same reaction lol
Based on the latest quikscat the center seems elongated and ready to cross 50W.
that has to be wrong... there is no spin or vorticity there at all.
What is the average house, town, building structure out there. Can the place handle a strong storm? Just wandering never been there and the only photos I have seen were from tourist either golfing or at Hagars bar drinking.
That is about what I see too.
TIA
Wow, looks much healthier than this morning.
Defiantly tightened up throughout the day.
But there is another COC to the north, now we have to see which one will battle it out to become dominate. Either that or a COC relocation is taking place.
I meant do you think 94L will become a cyclone and of what strength? Sorry for the confusion. The SHIPS is very agressive with the system.
Can't wait to see your vids, CycloneOz!
Just a question, though, if you don't mind telling us. How do you fund your excursions? I wish I could hop on a plane whenever and document landfalling hurricanes. That would be quite the life!
That is rather far SW of satellite estimates. well off any official guidance. This would mean 94L has move west and that what we were tracking was MLC which is well towards the NE, indicating the system is not vertically stacked.
Also the models are now useless since they intialised the area much further east.
Something's off somewhere.
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