Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
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Yep, your completely right on that. No reason it wont come back overnight.
I don't think the NHC will lower the chance for development. Convection will come back and 94L will easily overnight become organized enough to be named a depression by late morning. It's normal for convection to wane..but one thing for damn sure. That circulation is very well established.
thank you :)
Baha,
we desperately need some rain and 92L did a good job now 94L may relieve out water levels which have suffered this rainy season.
My biggest fear tho is that we get too much. But what can we ask for now. Every hope and wish has ties.
Rain or no rain tho, 94L seems to affects our weather.
I had it goin out to sea last tuesday.
The RGB is what made me think 94L was doing well...
btw - PBWB, I'm in Lantana...
Did u look at the invest in the Indian Ocean? I noted earlier today that SPac was the only basin without any tropical area of interest....
Link
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009
A 1007 MB LOW...WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...IS OBSERVED E OF THE AREA NEAR 11N48W AT 1800
UTC WITH A PRES OF 1007 MB. IT IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 13 KT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 14N52W EARLY MON AFTERNOON...NEAR
15N53W EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR 19N60W WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE SW N
ATLC LATE THU AND FRI. INTERESTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.
IN THE MEANTIME...A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS IN
THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAINLY ON
THE N SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BUOY 41040 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
NE 15 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.
SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W...
THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WILL LIFT N FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON AND TUE. THE
RIDGE THEN WILL RETREAT NE WED AND THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NW BAHAMAS. A BELT OF E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST S OF 22N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO THE N AND NE OVER THE FAR NW
WATERS BY TUE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
TROPICAL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC
IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY ENTER THE FAR SE WATERS LATE THU INTO
FRI AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO CHANGING WIND AND SEAS FOR THIS
PORTION OF THIS ZONE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHETHER THIS
SYSTEM UNDERGOES A DEVELOPING TREND DURING THE NEXT 48-72W HOURS
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CHANGES REQUIRED FOR WINDS AND SEAS
FOR THOSE WATERS.
Its Spanish. Here is the NHC pronunciation.
Jimena he-MAY-na
Wow it almost looks like it is going north in the last few images.
The Indian Ocean invest near Pakistan, you mean?
It is far too early to speculate on this. A better time to ask this question would be around Wednesday at the earliest.
THANK YOU! xD
Based on 18z models
1. Out-to-sea: 51%
2. Eastern U.S coast: 49%
3. Caribbean: 0%
yes StormW, thats what i was talking about
WILL LIFT N FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON AND TUE. THE
RIDGE THEN WILL RETREAT NE WED AND THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NW BAHAMAS.
I'm looking and looking at this and wondering how much the performance of this front / trough is going to influence the encroachment of 94L into Bahamian waters .. .. . .
I love the LBAR, hence my name!
94L will begin a more NW motion due to the Coriolis effect. These type of tracks make me extremely nervous for Bahamas and East Coast.
He-may-nuh
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