Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
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good but there are some errors in there =P
but yep im watching 94L very closely
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
I don't see this making TD tonight unless the trend reverses quickly. Maybe the heat of the day has taken its toll.
u from the caribbean? and if so which part?
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
almost every single model shows it missing the islands, the xtrap even shows the WNW movement. they arnt all wrong.
JMA increased the intensity to 60 knots (70 knots 1-min sustained winds average)
I don't think I could ever get the character languages down though.
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Anyways... 94L starts to wind down a little as DMIN approaches, wonder what it will look like tomorrow morning.
i agree. i think it's looking more ragged than earlier today
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What the heck are the TVCN and TVCC models? That's quite a jog NE they give 94L, lol.
Ummm.. Did you see the latest model chart on the WU homepage for 94L?
Im from Puerto Rico
I thought my Handle would give me up
JLPR xD
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
xD true
right now im thinking a path similar to 1989s Hugo seems possible, that is until reaching the northern islands
Go figure.
ohhhhh, wasn't thinking about that...lol
that its looking a little more ragged?? just a guess
I believe that the longer this thing takes to develope, the better the chances are of it making it to the GOM or very close to it. I am not wishcasting anything since i live here in Lafayette, LA. I had enough with Gustav last year. But this is really starting to remind me of the "A" word. Yes i said it "Andrew". It looked the same at this point and is on a similar track for the moment! Its got people over here wondering already. But things can change quickly so I guess we will all just have to wait and see.
I think I see ZZ Tops next album cover in this one.
good. it's pretty amazing though, that we haven't had any Hurricanes in there this year.
Actually, I've been living in Miami for 2 years while attending FIU and I survive just fine. PS...I am also bilingual. It's of no issue for me what people speak on here. The posts in English, I read and the posts in Spanish also. Anything else I simply ignore. It doesn't bother me. I was simply making a statement to those who it does irritate.
I do too. I just think a 200 mile NNE jog before returning WNW is a little strange...
That has pretty much been my view.
The statistical models are the ones that verified with the LBAR having the smallest forecast errow with 94L.
The dynamic models continue to forecast a NW turn for 3 days now and we all know that aint fly.
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