Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

thats funny cause i had one hitting houston last yr and i was correct about that one but since im a floridacaster than i was wrong bout tx last yr.

What are the chances the shear above 94L will feed into its anticyclone?
Link

Very close to the islands..kinda hard to not see it go into the Carribean.

Quoting Dakster:


If a cyclone doesn't form by the time is gets to the Easter caribbean, it won't form until it gets to the Western Caribbean.. I forgot what the Lattitude that it has to form by. I think it is 50W.

thanks i suspected that was what it meant but i was not certain thanks....

NHC was expecting advisories later today on Jimena.

Quoting flsky:


My son sent me an email this morning saying he and his girlfriend are going to Cabo tomorrow. They know there is a hurricane on the way, but I don't think they know how strong it's going to be. I've been keeping them updated from info I get here on WU. My guess is that their flight is going to be canceled. Personally, I hope they delay the trip for a while.

If I were he, I would watch quite closely. I am sure you know the location of Cabo San Lucas. While there are some indications, the system could veer away, it is just a little too close for comfort. I am sure the airlines are closely monitoring the system and will give fair warning.

Quoting Grothar:


Not sure, but I believe the NHC models has outperformed all models with a higher degree of accuracy. I do not want to quote incorrectly, but I believe it may have been in one of Dr. Master's blogs. Like I said, I do not want to misquote, but I am sure I shall be corrected if I am wrong.

Some of the consensus models perform slightly better than NHC official forecast. It may be due to a "response lag" with official forecasts, the NHC does not in general make dramatic shifts to their forecast cycle to cycle, but does it in a gradual way.

Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
I am in the path of Jimena, it's really odd that the Local people doesn't know about the hurricane!

Hang Tight , looks you could be in for one hell of a ride, I know storms don't strike there often, but once you're in the line of fire you need to be prepared no matter the statistics, keep safe.

thanks nrti, that's the data I was looking for, it's a lot but worth reviewing. Now considering I am an amatuer at reading storm data, what are the 10 most important criteria that determine direction and intensity of a storm system?

What are the chances of 94L(Future Hurricane) hitting the South florida area? Anyone?

Quoting kuppenskup:
What are the chances of 94L(Future Hurricane) hitting the South florida area? Anyone?

if it takes the frances track than a high chance but if not than i would say into the hurricane graveyard.

Quoting Hhunter:


purple spot i see possible swirl...

Weather has already kicked up today IN the GOM.

It's a potato, meaning weak. Looking like another 36 or 48 hrs to organize. May go back to yellow tonight. Feeling more confident going into carribean. Not giving any forecast once it gets there.

wath we can expect here on Puerto Rico?

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Some of the consensus models perform slightly better than NHC official forecast. It may be due to a "response lag" with official forecasts, the NHC does not in general make dramatic shifts to their forecast cycle to cycle, but does it in a gradual way.

He has posed an interesting question. How would one go about finding what model has performed the better of the others. I for one would really like to know, as I am sure others would. Your shift observation is quite true.

I'll bet 20 crow beaks it does not turn into a fish LOL

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Here's my brief afternoon update on 94L, y'all. Enjoy!


Generally I've made a good observation, however, note that the main ball of convection is displaced to the west of the tropical low center under the influence of strong east to east northeast winds. At 28/12Z, NHC estimated the ill-defined center location at 10.5N 36.0W but other small swirls are also evident in the visible satellite imagery. My guesstimate at 13Z would be 10.5N 37.2W with a general motion just south of due west (260 degrees). With uncertainty on the initialization point, most (if not all) of the 00Z and 06Z model runs have already been too far to the north on their 6 and/or 12 hour forecast points. This 'bouncing around' with the models will settle down as the system becomes better defined and a consistent centerpoint becomes better established. Until this happens though (and it may take a couple of days), any aggresive northward trend by the models will remain suspect and a generally westward motion is more likely. Its also worth noting that the central pressure has increased in the past 24 hours from 1009MB to 1011MB, so development of this system is likely to be slow until the convection aligns better with the center of the low.

More to come tonight, thanks.

The pressure has dropped and is now 1007mb.

Quoting mobilegirl81:
I'll bet 20 crow beaks it does not turn into a fish LOL

get ya plate ready haha thats a good buffet but i dont like crow

This one makes my stomach turn. Don't know why.

Quoting KBH:

now we're onto something. Each model utilises the same raw data each year to make predictions (I guess sea temp, shear, SAL, TS activity etc) so the reason why each model is inconsistent is because they use the same criteria, regardless to storm cycle..el nino, la nina, etc
Does any model change the raw data based on the particular storm cycle?

Models assimalate the raw data in different ways, but also the models have different resolutions and different methods for solving the equations that make up the model.

Model Summary

TO: CHIKLIT
re: your map
That is funny!! But good advice. True, a picture says a thousand words!!

Quoting chucky7777:
thanks i suspected that was what it meant but i was not certain thanks....

Ehhhhhh....Wrong....Try Again

I think someone earlier said something about an area in the Carribean and something in the GOM that may be of interest or looks interesting...Anything on that?

Link
Look at this visible loop of 94L COC becoming better defined all the time COC at 12.1N/47.9W.

Crow is best when slow cooked so we should put it on fire "indirect heat" now, it will taste better.

Quoting txalwaysprepared:
This one makes my stomach turn. Don't know why.

i wouldnt worry bout tx on this one. whatever that explosion off of tx is gonna block it.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Here's my brief afternoon update on 94L, y'all. Enjoy!


Generally I've made a good observation, however, note that the main ball of convection is displaced to the west of the tropical low center under the influence of strong east to east northeast winds. At 28/12Z, NHC estimated the ill-defined center location at 10.5N 36.0W but other small swirls are also evident in the visible satellite imagery. My guesstimate at 13Z would be 10.5N 37.2W with a general motion just south of due west (260 degrees). With uncertainty on the initialization point, most (if not all) of the 00Z and 06Z model runs have already been too far to the north on their 6 and/or 12 hour forecast points. This 'bouncing around' with the models will settle down as the system becomes better defined and a consistent centerpoint becomes better established. Until this happens though (and it may take a couple of days), any aggresive northward trend by the models will remain suspect and a generally westward motion is more likely. Its also worth noting that the central pressure has increased in the past 24 hours from 1009MB to 1011MB, so development of this system is likely to be slow until the convection aligns better with the center of the low.

More to come tonight, thanks.

Thanks, WS.

Quoting WeatherStudent:


Thank you for that, I wasn't aware of that.

sure. No problem.

it apears that invest 94l is poised to become a tropical depression early tomorrow morning. the circulation appears to be tightening up and you can realy see the banding features becominig more pronounced. all this needs is a burst of more heavy convection directly over the center tonight and it will be well on its way to becominig Erika

Quoting txalwaysprepared:
This one makes my stomach turn. Don't know
why.

Same here. I have been addicted to this site and 94L. Turn east now LOL

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Here's my brief afternoon update on 94L, y'all. Enjoy!


Generally I've made a good observation, however, note that the main ball of convection is displaced to the west of the tropical low center under the influence of strong east to east northeast winds. At 28/12Z, NHC estimated the ill-defined center location at 10.5N 36.0W but other small swirls are also evident in the visible satellite imagery. My guesstimate at 13Z would be 10.5N 37.2W with a general motion just south of due west (260 degrees). With uncertainty on the initialization point, most (if not all) of the 00Z and 06Z model runs have already been too far to the north on their 6 and/or 12 hour forecast points. This 'bouncing around' with the models will settle down as the system becomes better defined and a consistent centerpoint becomes better established. Until this happens though (and it may take a couple of days), any aggresive northward trend by the models will remain suspect and a generally westward motion is more likely. Its also worth noting that the central pressure has increased in the past 24 hours from 1009MB to 1011MB, so development of this system is likely to be slow until the convection aligns better with the center of the low.

More to come tonight, thanks.

thats from yesterday... right?
its at 47W lol

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Here's my brief afternoon update on 94L, y'all. Enjoy!


Generally I've made a good observation, however, note that the main ball of convection is displaced to the west of the tropical low center under the influence of strong east to east northeast winds. At 28/12Z, NHC estimated the ill-defined center location at 10.5N 36.0W but other small swirls are also evident in the visible satellite imagery. My guesstimate at 13Z would be 10.5N 37.2W with a general motion just south of due west (260 degrees). With uncertainty on the initialization point, most (if not all) of the 00Z and 06Z model runs have already been too far to the north on their 6 and/or 12 hour forecast points. This 'bouncing around' with the models will settle down as the system becomes better defined and a consistent centerpoint becomes better established. Until this happens though (and it may take a couple of days), any aggresive northward trend by the models will remain suspect and a generally westward motion is more likely. Its also worth noting that the central pressure has increased in the past 24 hours from 1009MB to 1011MB, so development of this system is likely to be slow until the convection aligns better with the center of the low.

More to come tonight, thanks.

Plagarism

Link

Quoting RitaEvac:



Ehhhhhh....Wrong....Try Again

care to enlighten me? thanks....

Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
Look at this visible loop of 94L COC becoming better defined all the time COC at 12.1N/47.9W.

Yes, it appears 94L is making best use of its conditions now.

Models last week were showing a moisture surge into TX, but isnt supposed to come in till next weekend, not sure what this activity is right now out there....

Quoting Grothar:


He has posed an interesting question. How would one go about finding what model has performed the better of the others. I for one would really like to know, as I am sure others would. Your shift observation is quite true.

See posts #1365, 1378

Looks like that system coming off Africa is holding it's own

Quoting Funkadelic:


I have been saying it for days, A nw track but then the high will build back in and force 94L west. It's all about timing right now. Bermuda should watch this storm too.

You think the GFS is really a little too far south? Wonder what they see that could force it so deeply?

What amazes me is that something as disorganized as Danny gets classified yet 94L, which looks pretty decent in my book does not.

Quoting farhaonhebrew:
wath we can expect here on Puerto Rico?

im not actually sure =\
once the system becomes a TD we will have a better idea of where it is going for now you can have a look at this:

Not worried about Tx. Worried about where it does hit. Just don't have a good feeling about it.

Quoting chucky7777:
care to enlighten me? thanks....

Systems in June that dont form now before entering the Carribbean form in western Carribbean, its August/September, it'll form when it wants at this point in the season...

GOM is just watch for now, something could happen.

Good spot Brazocane (#1439).
He copied ED word for word, down to the misspelling of "aggressive."