Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 — Blog Index
there is an upper level low pulling the moisture north a bit
ok
No it does not
Seeing if it will ever get updatedm but it never did, lol.
So is the SHIPS model available to the public?
Thanks to anyone who helped.
Link
specifically, watch the part from about 1 min to 1 min 30 seconds
What a difference a day makes.
155MPH CAT 4 vs a 156MPH CAT 5 has no difference in damage obviously, but there is a difference between a 155MPH CAT 4 and a 165MPH CAT 5.
It looks beautiful, doesn't it Pat?
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: POSSIBLE FIXES
NEAR 18N 54W BEGINNING AT 01/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0700Z.
current shear map..
lol they are in denial =P
ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)
Thanks!
I had learned from the blog, that an anticyclone did not work against forming a cyclone.
Your explanation of anticylone is in depth an very informative - again thanks, much appreciated!
One more question, if you do not mind:
The time in the heading is not necessarily the time of the QuickSCAT, right? Where is the actual time?
Link Winds Buoy 41041
36 hour shear forecast..if bears out 94L may have to fight some moderate shear...
Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder..
There is also low and mid steering graphics on this site.
PSUEWall
All I can say is YUCK
48 hour shear forecast...once past shear zone projected could take off...question is ..how south can 94L stay...
You have a link to a specific storm and time (AL92 12Z). Use the General Link and then select the latest data.
Almost Wilma-esque
Chicklet - I've never taken the time to learn how to read these graphics. Is there a chart that shows what each "flag" means?
Beauty is in the "EYE"
mid level steering...favor this for systems starting out...pretty strong agruement for west movement on both blobs...including 94L
Pureto Rico looks like bullseye currently....It could change and go south and interact with land.....and go pooff...i doubt it tho.
http://www.asce.org/pressroom/news/display_press.cfm?uid=1469
As winds increase, pressure against objects is added at a disproportionate rate. Pressure against a wall mounts with the square of wind speed so that a threefold increase in wind speed gives a nine-fold increase in pressure. Thus, a 25 mph wind causes about 1.6 pounds of pressure per square foot. A four by eight sheet of plywood will be pushed by a weight of 50 pounds. In 75 mph winds, that force becomes 450 pounds, and in 125 mph winds, it becomes 1,250 pounds
Thanks
Please make sure one uses proper grammer and spellin.....
Hurricane Katrina builds bonds of belief
correct further east to further west on the map below.
?
Thats my current forecast.....
Viewing: 651 - 701
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 — Blog Index