Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.
Update at 6AM EDT
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, Jimena At this time, Jimena has a satellite-estimated maximum wind speed of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Jimena has an impressive presentation in satellite imagery with a large area of cold anvil cirrus in the center of the storm. The following microwave imagery indicate the formation of a relatively potent central eyewall, which is responsible for intensification.
Fig. 1 SSMI 85 GHz PCT at 0244Z Aug 30. Image courtesy of NRL.
People along the western coast of Mexico and along along the Baja need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm. I emphasize that using the current track and intensity forecast, Jimena will be a Category 4 storm when it approaches the tip of Baja and a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall up the coast.
It is worth noting that if Jimena follows the more easterly tracks presented in the computer track forecasts, the remnants of Jimena could impact NM and western Texas.
I'll update this entry further in response to 94L's development.
Reader Comments
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Its not from Jimena. And it doesnt look like its going anywhere too fast.
The blob in the Caribbean is just Divergence from the ULL to its North...it will die out in a few hours and go onshore soon anyways....
Lol. Ok I'll warn ya. :)
I just googled this morning's update on the translator website and this was the result.
?????????????
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irnhc/g8irnhcjava.html
you can see that it has moved wnw in the last 24 hours
The front I'm talking abt. is the one that just came off the E coast. It was humid as hades out yesterday, but temps and humidity seem to have moderated slightly this a.m. in Nassau, Bahamas.....
I agree.
Serious little blob in the Bay. Does 94L looked a little elongated?
id like to know what your watching
Convection on the outer edge of an ULL, development is unlikely.
2
It's moving in a direction that is not east, south, or due north.
I for one am watching it from the greater Antilles.
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AND INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
MON THROUGH TUE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE. A 1007
MB LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 12N46W WILL SLOWLY
MOVE W-NW AROUND 10 KT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 14N51W MON MORNING
AND NEAR 15N53W TUE MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED INTO THU.
May be just enough to moisten the environment for 94L
I think maybe like 150 miles north of PR
Yeah I think he was watching cartoons..
Ohhhhh let's hope not....but I do agree with you. It is too far south for my liking.
We're supposed to get the tail end of that front. I think they said it would need some kind of secondary front to push it past us. Hope it gets it. Lower humidity would be heaven! :)
Is it?
Source please.
That is true!
WTPZ33 KNHC 301432
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...JIMENA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES
...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 106.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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