Adieu to Danny

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:50 AM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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wow, there is alot of clutter on the radars tonight
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
1652. Orcasystems
Oh nooooo,
Not the hebert box



I can always count on you for a quick stir Kate :)
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1652. Orcasystems
Oh nooooo,
Not the hebert box
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Good Evening!
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For those who see N of the islands
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The steering current are the thing to watch right now intensity will take care of itself no matter were it goes.
Member Since: Agosto 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
SLU are you seeing this steep northerly pull the models are hinting? i see a continued west tonorth of west trackw
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
Quoting pcolasky:
Thanxs Orcasystems; that is what I was looking for


Anytime :)
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It's centre is still on 10N, where it's been for over a day. Still no sign of a NW movement. It's too far south to 'want' to go north.
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Quoting Drakoen:
I'm in best agreement with the CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF models that have done well with track this year. The are in the middle, just south of the TVCN, between the hurricane models and the BAMM guidance.

The orange model is the only one that has realism to it.
Member Since: Agosto 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
1657. 7544
good evening all well if 94l does get its act together at dmax the stucture looks like it will be taking up alot of realestate so when a if a ts forms it could be quite large in size

thanks for the updates dr rob
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1656. edmac
The last thing we need is 94l getting in the carribean. But if it does not get pulled to the north any 94l will probably go straight west like Dean.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Taco i just logged on.....Let me work at producing an update...i will have in done in 1hr....Thanks.


Hey No problem, I know you will come up with a good answer....

Taco :0)

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Thanxs Orcasystems; that is what I was looking for
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Quoting GainesvilleGator:
The models show 94L being pulled North pretty quickly. If we don't see this movement by around 8:00 AM on Sunday then Hello Carribean.

I am afraid so, no hint of north jog at all.
Member Since: Agosto 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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1651. Drakoen
Quoting Funkadelic:


So you are in agreement that 94L will move west after going north of the islands?


We'll cross that bridge when we get there
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1650. SLU


so much for the long awaited northward turn.
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For thoose in need of Navy unclassified info...


http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/viewtext.pl?File=/center/Tropical/NWS/ABNT20
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Good Night All, Hope i don't get up to 94L at my door step tomorrow lol :)
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Quoting taco2me61:


It goes indeed..... But wondering what you thought about 94L and where you think it might go????


Taco i just logged on.....Let me work at producing an update...i will have in done in 1hr....Thanks.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
The models show 94L being pulled North pretty quickly. If we don't see this movement by around 8:00 AM on Sunday then Hello Carribean.


What are the models showing on 94L? I know they are basically worthless in this stage of the game...but still
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Quoting tramp96:


I have a kid that has a cold so I have been lurking all day the tone and conversation has been much better and much more informative this evening.


Agree. The trolls have moved on.
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The models show 94L being pulled North pretty quickly. If we don't see this movement by around 8:00 AM on Sunday then Hello Carribean.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone....Looks like 94L looks a little better than this morning.


It goes indeed..... But wondering what you thought about 94L and where you think it might go????
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I am going to turn in for tonight. Have the usual golf game in the morning and 94L will still be around then.

You all take care for now.

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Evening everyone....Looks like 94L looks a little better than this morning.
Member Since: Septiembre 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Where is WS when we need him?Lol only joking!


Where did he go anyways?
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Where is WS when we need him?Lol only joking!
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1633. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:


I'm surprise we have any left.
lol.
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In about 2 days, 94l has gone north by .5 and west by 36.8 degrees

29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L
29/0615 UTC 10.0N 41.2W TOO WEAK 94L
28/2345 UTC 10.2N 39.3W TOO WEAK 94L
28/1745 UTC 10.2N 37.9W TOO WEAK 94L
28/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 94L
28/0600 UTC 10.3N 34.0W TOO WEAK 94L
28/0000 UTC 9.8N 28.0W TOO WEAK 94L
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1629. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


Those coordinates look about right. I don't think it's moving a true NW track right now. Maybe a 305 degree movement.


They look right to me too
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1628. IKE
Quoting Gumbogator:
94L has decent structure. The computers models have failed so far on this area of investigation. Hurricane hunters are scheduled for 18N and 54W on 9/1.


Those coordinates look about right. I don't think it's moving a true NW track right now. Maybe a 305 degree movement.
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Maybe the center is elongated from 10n 45w to 12n 43w, which of this center dominates and that change future track? please answer.
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If 94L can get past the hurdles, then I think it will do just as Jeff Masters think and posted before his vacation. It will track north of the Northern Antilles by 100 to 150 miles and then head west. Seems to be moving more northwestward as I type.
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Quoting vince1966:
Navy has canceled a large movement/Training event in the GOMEX for the period of sept 6th to the 12th in advance of a anticipated Hurricane effecting the western FL coast and AL to LA coast. There Met team has a 75% confidence report for large area forecasting (450 NM), the don't usually list coastal areas for there UNCLAS broadcast reports to ship commands, but this time they did. They are expecting 94L to miss the trough, These guys don't make it a habit of being wrong. Thought I would pass it along.


I do a lot of lurking on this board and I'm no MET, but this is the funniest thing I have seen on this blog in quite awhile.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


So you think it has a chance at the East Coast or Bahamas?


Sounds likely, given how this has so far been a pretty typical El Nino year (which tends to steer things more to the east)
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Quoting IKE:


You can sleep a lot easier tonight then 4 years ago tonight. Life is easier to take.
Amen to that...
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94L has decent structure. The computers models have failed so far on this area of investigation. Hurricane hunters are scheduled for 18N and 54W on 9/1.
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i see two competitive centers in 94L.
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Excert from my blog

The unexpected delay in development probably has skewed the forecast track. 94L is located near 10N at 40W, while Bill was located 2 ½ degrees more north at that time and was moving west-northwest as a tropical storm. I am expecting 94L to move off towards the west over the next day or two, and then turn towards the west-northwest around 45W, with a bit more northwestward motion through days 3-5. This motion should bring the system close to the Antilles in about 5-6 days. My reasoning is that, unless 94L becomes a significantly deep system over the next 5 days, it will be steered by shallow-mid level flow, which shows some significant ridging through 3 days, and then a more pronounce weakness thereafter.

This may shift west if 94L continues west through Sunday night. I'm already skeptical of that sharp turn.

Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1618. Drakoen
I'm in best agreement with the CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF models that have done well with track this year. The are in the middle, just south of the TVCN, between the hurricane models and the BAMM guidance.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I think the answer is that we each have a fundamentally different way of deciding what factors will determine the track of any particular system.

Some rely heavily on the models, others rely on the evolving atmospherics assuming a certain level of development with the system.

Personally, for a weak developing system I tend to ignore the models because the model runs are based upon input from what HAS happened the past several hours and from that they forecast what is likely to happen in the future. Very rarely do the models have real time data. Garbage in, garbage out. If the model run is initialized at the wrong coordinates for example it can make a world of difference to the outcome.

I base my conclusions from what I see actually occurring out there, which is real time to me.

There is also climatology and history, which many tend to dismiss now but which I consider to still be relevant.

In the end, we each tend to be right and wrong from time to time. The trick is not to believe you will always be right LOL

I like the way you think Kman...makes complete sense to me the way you explained it...thank you
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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