Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Not a huge jump towards the North. You can see what the trend will be though. 94L will be moving more N in the next 48 hours. Looks like 94L might end up N of the islands and could get near the Bahamas like some of the models were showing. A recurve is most likely with the timing of all these strong troughs digging S. Things change quick in the tropics and it still could miss a ride out to sea. This invest has to develop first before even thinking about a US landfall. I say if 94L doesn't become a TD by tomorrow night it's toast. It needs to do something now or goodbye.

That is exactly what I said about what you said. lol G'nite Nice talk.

Quoting btwntx08:

ughhh what??????

I do agree with some of the Post about the trouble in front of 94L with Shear. As i have said lets see if 94L develops first as you are watching......it needs a good nite in DMax to survive the next 24-36hrs of shear that is in front of it. As i posted on my site...i don't see a Storm until it gets north of the Islands near Pureto Rico.....but, it has to survive to get there first.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Here are the current location and Stats on Invest 94L:

Invest #94L (Location: Central Atlantic)

Lat: 10.7N Lon: 43.4W

Moving: W 16 mph (14 kts)

Pressure: 29.83 in (1010 mb)

I have decided to break things down into 6 categories of analysis:

Wind Shear--very light wind shear from the SW currently but, stronger shear to its West. But, due to relax in 48-72hrs.

SST's (water temperature)--94L just entered an area of 30deg Celicius temps.

SAL and Dust (Dry and Dust air)--still moving in an area of dry air, but 94L seems to be making its on moist environment.

Vorticity--the voricity is stacked at all levels, but is very oblong shaped. Very open wave with nothing closed yet.

Convergence--some lower convergence is present. But, not much!

Divergence--some upper level divergence is present. But, again not much and not stacked with the convergence.



Based upon the above, one would have to conclude that Invest 94L is poorly organized. That is a fact. It is just entering waters that is nearly 2deg warmer than where it was. This alone will enhance the possibility of development. Invest 94L is moving into and presently in a mass of Dry air but, 94L seems to making its own moisture environment which shows a lot of character for such a poorly organized system. With Voricity stacked at all levels the convergence should increase. There appears to be an anit-cyclone to its NE that should help the divergence and vent 94L.


With the above analysis i would have to think that 94L has a good possibility of developing. Looking at Satelitte, the overall structure seems to be improving.

Now the question would be, Where is it going? Most models are indicating a path just Northe of the islands and Puerto Rico. I do favor that track but, i will say that the Northern islands and Puerto Rico is not out of the possibility of a direct Path. Assuming it does go North of the islands which i do favor in the forecast. Invest 94L will turn to the West very quickly as High Pressure will build to its North sending 94L straight toward the ConUs. Don't panic yet but, currently there appears to be a possible trough that might develop just before a South Florida hit. This might be very close. Now, keep in mind this is of course assuming that 94L does develop.

My current forecast for Invest 94L is for slow development over the next 24hrs and then after becoming more organized a Named storm in 72hrs just before reaching the Northern Islands. I do foresee a Tropical Storm just north of Pureto Rico and a Hurricane moving into the Bahamas toward nearing South Florida as High Pressure will send the system back to the West. I hate to use this word but, Andrew had nearly the exact setup as 94L will assume. We must watch this system VERY, VERY, CLOSE! I not wishcasting by any means and this is my honest opinion. But, again don't panic as things can change!

My Tropical Prediction Analysis give 94L a 25% above average chance of further development.

Thanks for the easy to understand 6 step break down

Station 41041
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F

winds up and preassure continuing falling in that bouy.Link

Quoting THUNDERPR:
Station 41041
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.7 �F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 �F

impressive

new image

I guess the center will jump to the convection

yes JLPR better and better in the news frames.

Look at the cyclonic turning and banding with this monster wave!!!Link This is the most impressive wave since Bill. Don't let the decrease in convection fool you. Bill did the same think but quickly got it back over water.

Quoting THUNDERPR:
winds up and preassure continuing falling in that bouy.Link

im guessing that the barb in this picture is that buoy

Here is the metric stats........
Conditions at 41041 as of
0550 GMT on 08/30/2009: Unit of Measure: English Metric
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 12.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 15.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.0 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1008.9 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.2 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.5 �C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 27.1 �C


its also down 2.1mb since the same time yesterday at the same time.....
Also the 1008.9 is 2.1mb less than the current forecast ....

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0543 24.9 kts NE ( 54 deg true )

yes Tampaspin 1008.9 and trend falling

At the end of this I think it shows a big high over the SE US into parts of ATL/GOM. And the tail end of the cold front. To me the low to the west of the high doesn't look like a major trough like we've been seeing that could break the ridge down. Am I wrong about that? Just curious. Trying to learn to read these things. :)
Link

More evidence that 94L is becoming better organized.....http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html

We may be in blackout now.....so good nite everyone.....see you all tomorrow am. Nite you all and good conversation tonite.....THANKS

it looks like a orange circle seems likely for 94L tomorrow

agree with you jlpr

Quoting GetReal:
More evidence that 94L is becoming better organized.....http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html

It does show 94L is trying to wrap up now. It also shows how hostile conditions are to its N and W. I think 94L just came in at the wrong time for development. If atmospheric conditions were good this would be a shoe in for a Cat 3.

30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic

... errm I mean later today xD

Quoting btwntx08:

yep still needs to expand and we are underway

yep and with the readings in that buoy I will say a TD could form soon

30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L

Quoting THUNDERPR:
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L

I would say the center is much more north than 10.7N

there with that you can get a good idea of how much better 94L is looking

a big diferrence jlpr

Quoting THUNDERPR:
a big diferrence jlpr

yep that's what I thought
before blackout and after blackout xD

94L is shy lol it wanted to keep its convection a secret with the blackout

Quoting btwntx08:
anyways im out nite jlpr

night

agree looking much better for me is a treath for us.

Jimena is really taking off. Worth a look. Eyewall looking really impressive, and the eye is quite visible now.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0600 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

AL, 94, 2009083006, , BEST, 0, 112N, 451W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Updated August 30, 2009 0703 UTC

Quoting THUNDERPR:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0600 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

I see we got 1008mb now
its actually a little stronger now

Ha! I bet some of you thought I went to bed lol xD

yeahp

me too see later

well then now im going to bed too =]

Here I leave this before going
Before


and After:


im expecting an orange circle at 8am, that is if it doesn't fell apart before then

oh and some comedy before going =P

LOOK! IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE! xD

My public advisory for Two-C

Night all

I'm seen the 1008 mb is the one reported on the bouy 41041 that is further north by 3 degrees. The llc may be lower. Just what I think.

This thing is getting it's act together. RAPIDLY

Quoting JLPR:
oh and some comedy before going =P

LOOK! IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE! xD

jimena does though. if that thing was gonna make landfall it'd be apocalypric for mexico

half the models plow jimena into mexico.