Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting iceman55:
iceman55:
slidell la .why

oh cool, i was just wondering. like to get to know people on here a little bit

Looks like shear is mostly to the N:

Link

hello...havent been in here in a while where is 94 going??

1846. vince1966 1:09 AM EDT on August 30, 2009
Quoting edmac:
Where do you think 94l, given it develops, will end up. Any takers
Gomex

Cross South Florida into the GOM

Quoting szqrn1:
hello...havent been in here in a while where is 94 going??

well, i think it is going to head in the general direction of FL, but at this point, who knows

Quoting szqrn1:
hello...havent been in here in a while where is 94 going??

Go to my update at LINK

Station 41041
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F

Quoting Vortex95:


It will make a crazy 8 over Florida and then explode over the GOM into trillions of raindropps which will get 1,000s of sea animals wet.

hahaha thats great

Quoting TampaSpin:
1846. vince1966 1:09 AM EDT on August 30, 2009
Quoting edmac:
Where do you think 94l, given it develops, will end up. Any takers
Gomex

Cross South Florida into the GOM

wow heraing this from you this early in the game people should stay alert youre always very close in your forcast keep us updated

Quoting markymark1973:
94L is slowly getting pulled to the North. Going by the 11pm discussion from the NHC it doesn't have a chance. Maybe the wave coming off of Africa can do something.

Ok, I'm confussed. Does 94l have potential to form or not?

Quoting Vortex95:


It will make a crazy 8 over Florida and then explode over the GOM into trillions of raindropps which will get 1,000s of sea animals wet.

Holy Crap!

Quoting TampaSpin:


Go to my update at LINK

yea TS i was hoping for the easy way out tonight... "fl, gom, tahiti...." ya know the ultra short version... lazy to look tonight!!

Quoting THUNDERPR:
Station 41041
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F

winds almost sustained at 25mph
seems to be close to TD strength

94L has all the right stuff to turn into the dreaded, elusive, HYPERCANE. Able to destroy whole land masses (like Florida) in a single blow. Stay tuned, It just might get ugly... well 10% chance.

Preassure continuing falling in that bouy north of the 94L.

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1009.7 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.3 mb ( Falling )

Quoting szqrn1:


yea TS i was hoping for the easy way out tonight... "fl, gom, tahiti...." ya know the ultra short version... lazy to look tonight!!

Here are the current location and Stats on Invest 94L:

Invest #94L (Location: Central Atlantic)

Lat: 10.7N Lon: 43.4W

Moving: W 16 mph (14 kts)

Pressure: 29.83 in (1010 mb)

I have decided to break things down into 6 categories of analysis:

Wind Shear--very light wind shear from the SW currently but, stronger shear to its West. But, due to relax in 48-72hrs.

SST's (water temperature)--94L just entered an area of 30deg Celicius temps.

SAL and Dust (Dry and Dust air)--still moving in an area of dry air, but 94L seems to be making its on moist environment.

Vorticity--the voricity is stacked at all levels, but is very oblong shaped. Very open wave with nothing closed yet.

Convergence--some lower convergence is present. But, not much!

Divergence--some upper level divergence is present. But, again not much and not stacked with the convergence.



Based upon the above, one would have to conclude that Invest 94L is poorly organized. That is a fact. It is just entering waters that is nearly 2deg warmer than where it was. This alone will enhance the possibility of development. Invest 94L is moving into and presently in a mass of Dry air but, 94L seems to making its own moisture environment which shows a lot of character for such a poorly organized system. With Voricity stacked at all levels the convergence should increase. There appears to be an anit-cyclone to its NE that should help the divergence and vent 94L.


With the above analysis i would have to think that 94L has a good possibility of developing. Looking at Satelitte, the overall structure seems to be improving.

Now the question would be, Where is it going? Most models are indicating a path just Northe of the islands and Puerto Rico. I do favor that track but, i will say that the Northern islands and Puerto Rico is not out of the possibility of a direct Path. Assuming it does go North of the islands which i do favor in the forecast. Invest 94L will turn to the West very quickly as High Pressure will build to its North sending 94L straight toward the ConUs. Don't panic yet but, currently there appears to be a possible trough that might develop just before a South Florida hit. This might be very close. Now, keep in mind this is of course assuming that 94L does develop.

My current forecast for Invest 94L is for slow development over the next 24hrs and then after becoming more organized a Named storm in 72hrs just before reaching the Northern Islands. I do foresee a Tropical Storm just north of Pureto Rico and a Hurricane moving into the Bahamas toward nearing South Florida as High Pressure will send the system back to the West. I hate to use this word but, Andrew had nearly the exact setup as 94L will assume. We must watch this system VERY, VERY, CLOSE! I not wishcasting by any means and this is my honest opinion. But, again don't panic as things can change!

My Tropical Prediction Analysis give 94L a 25% above average chance of further development.

Quoting iceman55:
blackout come soon da

yeap and after we might see a big red ball 3am is the best time to see whats happening imo est

Is there an update coming out soon?

See the 5:00 utc image here convection continuing increase in 94L. Link

Quoting TampaSpin:


Here are the current location and Stats on Invest 94L:

Invest #94L (Location: Central Atlantic)

Lat: 10.7N Lon: 43.4W

Moving: W 16 mph (14 kts)

Pressure: 29.83 in (1010 mb)

I have decided to break things down into 6 categories of analysis:

Wind Shear--very light wind shear from the SW currently but, stronger shear to its West. But, due to relax in 48-72hrs.

SST's (water temperature)--94L just entered an area of 30deg Celicius temps.

SAL and Dust (Dry and Dust air)--still moving in an area of dry air, but 94L seems to be making its on moist environment.

Vorticity--the voricity is stacked at all levels, but is very oblong shaped. Very open wave with nothing closed yet.

Convergence--some lower convergence is present. But, not much!

Divergence--some upper level divergence is present. But, again not much and not stacked with the convergence.



Based upon the above, one would have to conclude that Invest 94L is poorly organized. That is a fact. It is just entering waters that is nearly 2deg warmer than where it was. This alone will enhance the possibility of development. Invest 94L is moving into and presently in a mass of Dry air but, 94L seems to making its own moisture environment which shows a lot of character for such a poorly organized system. With Voricity stacked at all levels the convergence should increase. There appears to be an anit-cyclone to its NE that should help the divergence and vent 94L.


With the above analysis i would have to think that 94L has a good possibility of developing. Looking at Satelitte, the overall structure seems to be improving.

Now the question would be, Where is it going? Most models are indicating a path just Northe of the islands and Puerto Rico. I do favor that track but, i will say that the Northern islands and Puerto Rico is not out of the possibility of a direct Path. Assuming it does go North of the islands which i do favor in the forecast. Invest 94L will turn to the West very quickly as High Pressure will build to its North sending 94L straight toward the ConUs. Don't panic yet but, currently there appears to be a possible trough that might develop just before a South Florida hit. This might be very close. Now, keep in mind this is of course assuming that 94L does develop.

My current forecast for Invest 94L is for slow development over the next 24hrs and then after becoming more organized a Named storm in 72hrs just before reaching the Northern Islands. I do foresee a Tropical Storm just north of Pureto Rico and a Hurricane moving into the Bahamas toward nearing South Florida as High Pressure will send the system back to the West. I hate to use this word but, Andrew had nearly the exact setup as 94L will assume. We must watch this system VERY, VERY, CLOSE! I not wishcasting by any means and this is my honest opinion. But, again don't panic as things can change!

My Tropical Prediction Analysis give 94L a 25% above average chance of further development.

thank you
that was a great analysis!
You should give it the title
''All you want to know about 94L'' lol xD

Quoting JLPR:


thank you
that was a great analysis!
You should give it the title
''All you want to know about 94L'' lol xD

haha agreed

New gfdl 00z for 94L 126 Hours 25.2 57.1 325./ 7.2

A RATHER STRONG 1025MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE NRN MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...RIDGING WELL SOUTH INTO LA AND ERN TX. A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS...WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTN
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY

This is from local NWS. Would this high have an affect on 94l track if it develops? Just wondering if this is the beginning of the negative NAO or just temporary until another trough comes through.

Quoting homelesswanderer:
A RATHER STRONG 1025MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE NRN MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...RIDGING WELL SOUTH INTO LA AND ERN TX. A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS...WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL MINIMUMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTN
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY

This is from local NWS. Would this high have an affect on 94l track if it develops? Just wondering if this is the beginning of the negative NAO or just temporary until another trough comes through.

This is the High that i talked about in my update and will force 94L to the WEST....HONESTLY all this High does not appear to move at all......NOT GOOD SETUP COMING!

International Falls, MN
Falls International Airport
Lat: 48.58 Lon: -93.38 Elev: 1179
Last Update on Aug 29, 11:55 pm CDT

Fair

37 °F
(3 °C)
Humidity: 96 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.22" (1024.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 36 °F (2 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi

starting to look a little interesting
Before:

and After:

TS.... thanks .... my non-meterologic brain absorbed every drop! LOL... kidding but thanks! :)