Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting TriniGirl26:



stormpetrol i have a stupid question for u...what does CONUS stand for?

Continental United States. 48 states not Alaska, Hawaii, or territories such as Puerto Rico or Virgin Islands included.

Quoting TriniGirl26:



stormpetrol i have a stupid question for u...what does CONUS stand for?

Please, not again tonight. Contiguous United States(not sure about this spelling)

Quoting tornadofan:
What rhymes with SHIP?

coniption fit? :)

Quoting stormpetrol:

Continental United States.

Thank You !!!

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


so according to that its been strengthing throughout the day?

I don't see strengthening but I do see westward movement only by these co-ordiantes.

94L looks better than this morning.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have asked a few times today and no answer. Can you please tell me if there is anything going on with the flare-up in the SW Caribbean ?

I wasnt on the blog all day so I might have missed the question. But the flare up in the SW Caribbean is a result of the freshening of the easterlies north of the ITCZ.

i am sorry but you all in here need to slow down. The quickscat does not look impressive because of the fact that the circulation is trying to tighten itself. IMO based on images i have seen 94L is looking better than it has structure wise and d-max tonight will do this system good. watch and see code orange or red by 8am.

Good Evening

Quoting Weather456:


I wasnt on the blog all day so I might have missed the question. But the flare up in the SW Caribbean is a result of the freshening of the easterlies north of the ITCZ.

So, nothing for me to worry about(at least for now)right ?

Quoting gordydunnot:
Notice how different the nhc is with systems in the middle of nowhere verses, as they get closer to land. This makes sense but messes with the statistics I think.

The data with storms in the Atlantic is limited, so its difficult to make objective analysis without the data. Case in point, the recent QuikScat missed the center. There are limited bouys etc. NHC has already tentatively scheduled Recon for Tuesday afternoon. If they have the same data, they would make the same analysis. I know many don't agree, just my thought on it.

agree with you twinkster.

Quoting kmanislander:
One post then have to go. Quikscat shows a very weak surface low near 10N 45W

Caribbean bound

back later

I thought so. Thanks.

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Continental United States. 48 states not Alaska, Hawaii, or territories such as Puerto Rico or Virgin Islands included.

thank you for elaborating :) and thank you stormwatcherCI...i honestly had no clue what it meant

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
So, nothing for me to worry about(at least for now)right ?

The flare up is diffluence on the SE side of a ULL in the Western Caribbean. No development likely.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
So, nothing for me to worry about(at least for now)right ?

it does not appears to be a system of concern, just convection associated with a linear system.

In this case, RIP for 94L means: "Resting in Pieces"

Dr. Carver posted the latest QuikScat earlier, which still does show a closed surface low (albeit not strong). However, as long as it still has a low, if it can build thunderstorms over the center, it will grow better organized...as it is slowly doing right now.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0000 UTC
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 43.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Wow.

Can we please stop with the alternate languages...

It gets really hard going back and seeing these types of posts continuously.

This is getting ridiculous, geez.

Anyone on this blog should know how to type standard english, imo.

The NHC position is based on the 18z position. The Quickscat position features more of a cyclonic axis stretching from west to east than a surface circulation.

AL 94 2009083000 BEST 0 107N 434W 25 1010 DB

Quoting BrockBerlin:
as usual the westcasters are out in full force

Its moving west

Quoting AllStar17:


Dr. Carver posted the latest QuikScat earlier, which still does show a closed surface low (albeit not strong). However, as long as it still has a low, if it can build thunderstorms over the center, it will grow better organized...as it is slowly doing right now.

There are only two passes each day. One early in the morning and the one that is downloading now.

Back in a while

Quoting BrockBerlin:
as usual the westcasters are out in full force

Definitely not westcasting but looking at what has been transpiring as far as movement is concerned.

Quoting BrockBerlin:
as usual the westcasters are out in full force

have you said anything worthwhile tonight?

The storm is at 10.7N 43.4W

Quoting stormpetrol:

Very valid observation/comment, especially if the CONUS could be threatened, I've commented on this time & time again , this is what gives the US a bad rap, bear in mind I'm pro American though not American, but this can be one example of the selfishness & superiority that persons around the world accuse the US of, personally I find the Americans I know a kind and caring people but nevertheless this is often the case.

Excuse me for saying so, but could it just be that the NHC is an organization in the U.S.? I know other countries, especially in Atlantic basin have great tropical forecasters.

93 knots in 120 hours

Quoting Weather456:



it does not appears to be a system of concern, just convection associated with a linear system.

Thank you very much.

Quoting CalmBeforeStorm2009:
Wow.

Can we please stop with the alternate languages...

It gets really hard going back and seeing these types of posts continuously.

This is getting ridiculous, geez.

Anyone on this blog should know how to type standard english, imo.

????? It was stopped already and it was just to prove a point.

Quoting BrockBerlin:


Obviously I can't disagree, but let's face it, this thing is not touching the islands or CONUS and if it does it would most likely be too weak to be significant.

if it doesnt get big befrore the islands it will move through atleast the northern part.. but as for its strength, anything could happen

IMO 94L is gradually consolidating nicely give it time,in 24 hours we should have a better idea regarding 94L, but I agree with Kman, Caribbean Bound.

Quoting BrockBerlin:
as usual the westcasters are out in full force

i have no problem with westcasters...i happen to live west of 94L or is that WSW?????

That wave about to come off of Africa is a beast!

Quoting tornadofan:
What rhymes with SHIP?

Dip Ship?

Quoting BrockBerlin:


Obviously I can't disagree, but let's face it, this thing is not touching the islands or CONUS and if it does it would most likely be too weak to be significant.

Can I borrow your crystal ball please.....

Category 2 borderline cat 3 in 120 hours with 107 mph the new ships strenght.

Quoting Acorna:
That wave about to come off of Africa is a beast!

post the picture

Quoting TriniGirl26:


i have no problem with westcasters...i happen to live west of 94L or is that WSW?????

TRINIDAD Port of Spain 10° 40' N 61° 31' W I would say almost directly west.

Stupid question but...

Is 94L moving WNW or due west?

It's hard for me to tell.

Quoting AllStar17:


Dr. Carver posted the latest QuikScat earlier, which still does show a closed surface low (albeit not strong). However, as long as it still has a low, if it can build thunderstorms over the center, it will grow better organized...as it is slowly doing right now.

only it wasn't the latest one. his was from 3:09am this morning. the buffer time is not the actual time of the pass. it even says so right next to it.
4)Data pass time at bottom of image.

and that reads 9:07

the latest pass shows the circulation is not well defined and Drak explained what it shows.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
TRINIDAD Port of Spain 10° 40' N 61° 31' W I would say almost directly west.

LOL Thanks !!!