Adieu to Danny

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:50 AM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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1017. Cavin Rawlins
10:29 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
One of the largest forecast errors I have ever seen, just by looking at the orientation of the models and 94L's past track.

Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1016. IKE
10:29 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
18Z GFS sends 94L toward Bermuda......as a weak system.

You can see why by looking at water vapor.
Member Since: Junio 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1014. nrtiwlnvragn
10:29 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Pobably the best models to track 94L is the ones that have verified thus far. NW track unlikely until about 3-5 days.


Looking back the CMC and UKM look the closest to what has actually occurred, but they did not go as far west as 94L actually has.

8-27 12Z Models

Member Since: Septiembre 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10876
1013. Ameister12
10:29 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting ackee:
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW

Eventually WNW.
Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
1012. StormFreakyisher
10:29 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
How fast is 94L moving right now?
Member Since: Mayo 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1011. stormwatcherCI
10:28 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
How come I click the filter on show all and it keeps going back to show average ? Can someone tell me what to do please.
Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8268
1010. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:28 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
India Meteorological Department
Chief Meteorologist Forecast
17:30 PM IST August 29 2009
===============================================

A low pressure area may form over west central Bay of Bengal around September 1st, which may increase rainfall activity over peninsular India

Member Since: Mayo 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
1009. ackee
10:28 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting JamesSA:
A. West, until I see evidence other than model runs indicating otherwise.
agree
Member Since: Julio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
1008. JamesSA
10:26 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting StormW:
Just stopping by real quick. Won't be back on until tomorrow afternoon.

So much for model guidance on 94L. CIRA had the 1800Z position at 10.6N;42.0W.


Yep. Same latitude as 3 days ago. XTRP wins the model competition!
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
1007. stormpetrol
10:25 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
The majority of storms move mostly w, then wnw, so I imagine most of the models are programmed with this bias, even though they take into account all the various weather systems that affect the track of the tropical systems, jmo I could be completely wrong, again timing is probably one key component that can be difficult at times.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
1006. TriniGirl26
10:25 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting ackee:
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW


well if it goes West i might get some rain for my plants but i am hoping for C but i think the answer is B
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1005. JamesSA
10:25 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
A. West, until I see evidence other than model runs indicating otherwise.
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
1003. Ameister12
10:24 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Good evening.
Ex-Danny is some massive Nor'easter.
Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
1001. Drakoen
10:23 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
On the quick poll of direction I would go with a West and then turn to the WNW in the next 24 hours. So for now I continue with the thought of West so A.

Drak, this invest is steadily growing convection and banding is improving. I would like to see banding improve before the central convection so that it has a means of continuing moisture feed into the circulation to sustain convection within the CDO.


Correct. That's why I have been monitoring the MIMIC-TPW to monitor the moisture and the circulation and how defined it is becoming.
Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
On the quick poll of direction I would go with a West and then turn to the WNW in the next 24 hours. So for now I continue with the thought of West so A.

Drak, this invest is steadily growing convection and banding is improving. I would like to see banding improve before the central convection so that it has a means of continuing moisture feed into the circulation to sustain convection within the CDO.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
Quoting Drakoen:
If it get's into the Caribbean it will not survive. The upper level winds, with the magnitude of the 850mb winds, will be unfavorable for development. The GFS shows upper level cyclonic flow in that region.


Some of us would rather not see that assumption tested in the real world. ;-)
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
997. Relix
I am going to make my first track ever... working on it haha =P
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2648
Well the Herbert Box definitely plays some role in where 94L is moving.
Member Since: Mayo 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
Pobably the best models to track 94L is the ones that have verified thus far. NW track unlikely until about 3-5 days.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting ackee:
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW
A
Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8268
991. ackee
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW
Member Since: Julio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
Quoting stormpetrol:

Ivan was forcasted originally when it developed to move more northernly into Bahamas and probably hit the east coast , maybe you can check the archive and find out.

It is very identical.
Member Since: Agosto 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
Convection is steadily on the increase with the system
Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
Quoting stormpetrol:
94L has 2 spins but looking at the last visible loop again I see the mean COC at 10.5N/42.5W.


There has been total DENIAL of the direction this thing has actually moved over the past few days by both the models and most of the people watching it. The only "model" that has had it consistently nailed has been XTRP.
Member Since: Agosto 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
The biggest threats seem to be the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Still to early to tell if the entire system will be picked up by the trough like Bill but some northerly motion is expected as a weakness develops thus the chances of a track similar to Dean or Ivan is small.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
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My personal opinion 94L if it develops into anything significant is in a ticklish spot for leewards & windswards, central & NW Caribbean, yucatan & gulf States including WEst Florida, jmo.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
I see that 94L invest is improving in its structure. Why? First of all the system seems more stacked vertically on satellite imagery. There is really no more NE to SW elongated convection with the convection now more in line of N-S and W-E. Also there is stronger low level convergence seen with the banding features gaining thunderstorm activity and it appears the strongest storms lie on the southern side of the circulation. For now it will probably take 24 hours to strengthen and be organized enough for a well defined surface circulation which right now the surface circulation is a little elongated and broad which will preclude any major intensification.

I see Jimena appears to be weakening a little going through an eyewall replacement cycle and a moat around the central CDO. Banding is almost gone as well as outflow on the eastern side of the circulation as the low remains well organized and very strong. I think peak intensity with Jimena will be exactly what the NHC says at 145mph category four hurricane.
Member Since: Octubre 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
Quoting Relix:


It's either north of us or over us right? heh


probably so and if its north of us, its closest approach may be 1/2 to 3/4 the distance of Bill.
Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
If it get's into the Caribbean it will not survive. The upper level winds, with the magnitude of the 850mb winds, will be unfavorable for development. The GFS shows upper level cyclonic flow in that region.
Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
The more west it goes, the more it is a threat to the islands and the CONUS right?


I'd have to say yes...
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978. Relix
Quoting Weather456:
I would like to see 94L move northwest as some of the models say. They are not handling this invest very well. For 94L to miss the islands it would have to go NW from this point on. The storm will likely go wnw then nw as the trough advances east and creates a weakness in the subtropical ridge but given its increasing distance from Bill at that same longitude, this feature could come too close for comfort. Even the TPC have 94L moving wnw.



It's either north of us or over us right? heh
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2648
The more west it goes, the more it is a threat to the islands and the CONUS right?
Member Since: Mayo 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
TPC:

Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
975. ackee
IT seem like 94L have us all guessing the models are off 94L contiue to track west
Member Since: Julio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
94L has 2 spins but looking at the last visible loop again I see the mean COC at 10.5N/42.5W.
Member Since: Abril 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
Quoting Tazmanian:
Dr Master's is off this weekend
Sorry, my bad. Dr. Carver. Just so used to seeing Dr. Masters up there.
Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8268
I would like to see 94L move northwest as some of the models say. They are not handling this invest very well. For 94L to miss the islands it would have to go NW from this point on. The storm will likely go wnw then nw as the trough advances east and creates a weakness in the subtropical ridge but given its increasing distance from Bill at that same longitude, this feature could come too close for comfort. Even the TPC have 94L moving wnw over the next 24 hrs.

Member Since: Julio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Thank you all!! :)
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970. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3:00 AM JST August 30 2009
=========================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression CP022009 (1004 hPa) located at 15.5N 178.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 6 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.4N 176.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Member Since: Mayo 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
969. BDAwx
Quoting Tazmanian:
any one think that JIMENA will hit cat 5??

I think there is a very good chance... i also say that Mexico needs to watch out
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968. Relix
Hey the circulation seems to be pretty much where I guessed =P, not bad hahaha. I will await for that new update, should be interesting.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2648
Quoting connie1976:
On the weather channel, they are saying that Invest 94L is basically nothing and has very little chance of becoming anything..... do you all agree? why? Thanks!

with all due respect to TWC I think in 24 to 36 hrs they will be back talking about that invest... I think it will be back as well.... but as a depression it will track more of a westerly movment than once thought of....

Just what I'm seeing right now....

Taco :0)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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