Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
On the quick poll of direction I would go with a West and then turn to the WNW in the next 24 hours. So for now I continue with the thought of West so A.

Drak, this invest is steadily growing convection and banding is improving. I would like to see banding improve before the central convection so that it has a means of continuing moisture feed into the circulation to sustain convection within the CDO.

Correct. That's why I have been monitoring the MIMIC-TPW to monitor the moisture and the circulation and how defined it is becoming.

Good evening.
Ex-Danny is some massive Nor'easter.

A. West, until I see evidence other than model runs indicating otherwise.

Quoting ackee:
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW

well if it goes West i might get some rain for my plants but i am hoping for C but i think the answer is B

The majority of storms move mostly w, then wnw, so I imagine most of the models are programmed with this bias, even though they take into account all the various weather systems that affect the track of the tropical systems, jmo I could be completely wrong, again timing is probably one key component that can be difficult at times.

Quoting StormW:
Just stopping by real quick. Won't be back on until tomorrow afternoon.

So much for model guidance on 94L. CIRA had the 1800Z position at 10.6N;42.0W.

Yep. Same latitude as 3 days ago. XTRP wins the model competition!

Quoting JamesSA:
A. West, until I see evidence other than model runs indicating otherwise.

agree

India Meteorological Department
Chief Meteorologist Forecast
17:30 PM IST August 29 2009
===============================================

A low pressure area may form over west central Bay of Bengal around September 1st, which may increase rainfall activity over peninsular India

How come I click the filter on show all and it keeps going back to show average ? Can someone tell me what to do please.

How fast is 94L moving right now?

Quoting ackee:
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW

Eventually WNW.

Quoting Weather456:
Pobably the best models to track 94L is the ones that have verified thus far. NW track unlikely until about 3-5 days.

Looking back the CMC and UKM look the closest to what has actually occurred, but they did not go as far west as 94L actually has.

8-27 12Z Models

18Z GFS sends 94L toward Bermuda......as a weak system.

You can see why by looking at water vapor.

One of the largest forecast errors I have ever seen, just by looking at the orientation of the models and 94L's past track.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
How come I click the filter on show all and it keeps going back to show average ? Can someone tell me what to do please.

Go to your blog page and on the right hand side select "Modify My Profile". Under that you can set the default filter level.

Quoting ackee:
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW

A west

Quoting StormW:
Just stopping by real quick. Won't be back on until tomorrow afternoon.

So much for model guidance on 94L. CIRA had the 1800Z position at 10.6N;42.0W.

StormW you the man, at least you tell it like you see it!

Quoting StormW:
If the updated steering layers forecast is right...don't even look for NW during the next 48 hours, possibly 72. Should be more WNW about 290-295.

right on

Member's Profile

Go here stormwatcherCI

Quoting StormW:
If the updated steering layers forecast is right...don't even look for NW during the next 48 hours, possibly 72. Should be more WNW about 290-295.

Hey stormW. Looks like conditions are not very conducive in the carribean.

Red Line represents model consensus. Blue line represents if it just turned NW. Green represents a mix of what the models predict along the current movement I expect. I shaded in red the danger area... though its not as noticeable (working on that), but I will say the Antilles are on the line of fire. Will work more on my... "track forecasts".

Quoting TriniGirl26:


well if it goes West i might get some rain for my plants but i am hoping for C but i think the answer is B

I believe the answer is "B"! But I've eaten crow on Danny though :)!

Quoting mobilegirl81:

Hey stormW. Looks like conditions are not very conducive in the carribean.

If it becomes a powerful system(only my speculation) it can mostly the bust the negative forces against it in the Caribbean, jmo.

that quikscat is not from 19:45. it's from 09:07 which was 3:07am edt. this morning.

the ascending pass is in the early morning and descending pass is late afternoon to early evening.

it only makes 2 passes a day.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Member's Profile

Go here stormwatcherCI

Thanks a lot.

Looks like the thinking on the track of 94L is starting to change

Link

In 24 hours I see 94L as a Tropical Depression, borderline Tropical Storm. It's then, with upper level conditions more favorable, that it could strengthen further. Interesting system to track!!!

Quoting stormpetrol:

If it becomes a powerful system(only my speculation) it can mostly the bust the negative forces against it in the Caribbean, jmo.

Agree. We have seen them do that to. Kind of defy the forecasts which is the NHC's biggest challenge, intensity.

One thing is the carribean is hot hot hot hot.

Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like the thinking on the track of 94L is starting to change

Link

What is your thinking sir ?

Quoting mobilegirl81:

Hey stormW. Looks like conditions are not very conducive in the carribean.Quoting mobilegirl81:

Hey stormW. Looks like conditions are not very conducive in the carribean.

If it does develop and go into the Caribbean it's toast. Hostile environment with alot of high shear and dry air will be waiting for it. If it goes north of the islands towards Bahamas it will likely be swept out to sea. Troughs are really digging far south now. I don't see 94L being a major issue. Models were never excited with this invest to begin with. Maybe i'll be eating crow:)

Quoting StormW:
Thanks 1021 and 1023.

I have to go....but wanted to mention one thing...it's funny how there are folks that when the models are predicting cyclogenesis more than 72 hours out, they have a tendency to discount it...butwhen it comes to model guidance, they're ready to jump on "fish"...even with the screwed up model consensus as it is. That's why for steering, I never go by model guidance...it's better to go by the steering layers maps, then determine whichmodel has the best track..whic at the moment happens to be none.

Thanks for that.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What is your thinking sir ?

The same as it was this time yesterday; into the Caribbean near 16N.

I can't believe how bad the models are doing on 94L. I probably would do better then them.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks for that.

If conditions in the carribean change and become conducive for development, god help us.

low shear but quite a bit of dry air

Quoting kmanislander:


The same as it was this time yesterday; into the Caribbean near 16N.

My thinking also. I just don't see it going too far north as it is still tracking basically west.. Don't know if it will develop but if it does I still think Caribbean storm. Maybe not the whole way across but although conditions might not be favorable for that right now by the time it reaches a little further west a lot can change.

Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like the thinking on the track of 94L is starting to change

Link

I noticed that and it must be a recent change (last few hours). The same analyst that did the current surface forecast also did the 24 hour surface forecast. They show different positions.

But today is Saturday which means time to fire up the grill to smoke a couple of rib eyes YUM !

Will be back later

Outflow is tremendous, yes with 94L. One can see looking at the last few visible satellite that cirrus outflow is expanding in all quadrants. That is pretty remarkable given that there is really no evident CDO feature present with convection developing over the southern circulation region. It has a large envelope evident by this expanding outward cirrus clouds.

Quoting kmanislander:
But today is Saturday which means time to fire up the grill to smoke a couple of rib eyes YUM !

Will be back later

Sounds good !