Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting jipmg:
LOL at invest 94 in the pacific, the models are completely lunatic..

why are they lunatic?

Is 94L coming back?

Link
Sorry I was off with the Ivan forcast, but it was for casted to go further north than it actually did.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't mean at the moment. Are you from here or do you live here ?

I'm from Cayman and live in Cayman, but I'm just in Miami for another few months to finish up with my degree.

A little convection forming on stalled front in S. central gulf. Good shear though.

Quoting jipmg:
LOL at invest 94 in the pacific, the models are completely lunatic..

There is no invest 94E.

94E is now Hurricane Jimena and those models are very much in line with the NHC forecast

Quoting DM21Altestic:
not to mention, Felix was a 94L at the SAME TIME OF YEAR.

also, the East Coast is northcasting, 'cause it's going Florida points southward!

I know but I am talking about this 2009 hurricane season, not last year or before that.

Quoting DM21Altestic:
I'm not incorrect, Extreme...unless you're saying that Aug 29 is a different timeframe then Aug 31...I was saying, general time of year...

Your comparing two systems that aren't anything alike except for invest number. There are different forces at work here this time around.

I don't know how to post links but some of you might find this interesting.View the assembly diagram, piece by piece.



I had no idea the Space Station had grown to this size.




http://i.usatoday.net/tech/graphics/iss_timeline/flash.htm

Quoting extreme236:


There is no invest 94E.

yes I know, the page was showing an old link, im just saying it was sort of interesting how back before it turned into a full blown storm the models were everywhere

Experimental season outlook:

Given the generalised pattern as of late with a strong east coast trough, typical of el nino, the persistent thunderstorm activity in the Epac causing downward-west winds to induce shear and stability in the caribbean and gulf, also typical of elnino,as well as the near average long term and below average near term OHC it seems a below to near average season is the correct guess, atleast in the ACE aspect. An above average number of minimal hurricanes and tropical storms are possible but intense and major hurricanes should remain well displaced from land should they occur with the possible exception being the east coast. If the thunderstorm activity dies down in the EPAC we may see a late season resurgence but at this point an early ending season looks likely. Looking past tropical season, it looks like a more active winter season than we've had lately is possible with above average rainfall and near to below average temps on the east coast with the opposite effect on the west coast, though that estimation is based solely on an expected elnino induced east coast troughing.
- credit to Dr. Blackwell for showing me my ideas actually held water in the physics world.

Sorry I meant "invest 95"

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200995_model.html

Quoting StadiumEffect:


I'm from Cayman and live in Cayman, but I'm just in Miami for another few months to finish up with my degree.

Good luck with that. Where are you, FIU or UofM ?

Quoting Drakoen:
Relix, the trough advecting off the eastern seaboard will push the high backwards and induce more northerly movement of 94L

I see. I heard last night the through was going to stall a bit. Also, would the fast movement of 94L help it get further west before getting pulled?

Tracking is fun haha

95E is now Kevin

Hopefully we will get a Quickscat pass this evening to an idea of the exact location and strength.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good luck with that. Where are you, FIU or UofM ?

Thanks. I'm at FIU

Quoting DM21Altestic:
Taz, when will 94L develop?

i dont no

Look this hurricane season is not 2007. This is the hurricane season of 2009. Unfavorable conditions have existed for a while now in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Too much shear with an upper level low situated over the NW Caribbean Sea keeping shear axises in place to its west and east keeping that area in check. Also with upper level lows and troughs come dry and colder air as well as descending air as colder air aloft is denser keeping a lid on convection. Right now the most favorable area for a storm to intensify and stay alive is to the south of the Atlantic ridge and to the north of the islands of the Caribbean. A track most of the storms this year have taken, although there has only been 4. 2007 was more favorable in the Caribbean Sea. Two category five hurricanes almost taking the same path is unheard of and this is what makes 2007-2007 and 2009-2009. An el nino is now stronger than what it was in 2007 therefore keeping upper level lows and tutts in the area keeping storms at a minimum, only real exception was Bill this year and he had no landfall on anyone. Although his waves were strong and resulted in the deaths of people. A Bill like track with a more favorable atmosphere and a further west track is in store with the high forecasted to stay strong. A track like hurricane Andrew is possible as 94L initially takes a NW track missing the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles and perhaps then turning more to the west favoring a closer encounter of the US East Coast. This has a stronger impact potential then Bill and Danny, given possibly more favorable intensity forecasts and conditions with a ridge in more influence.

94L may be a cyclone by Monday?

94L is not close to depression status

not organized enough, have to see what QS shows tonight, its structure has improved slowly over the last few days, but it is having problems keeping convection due to cooler SSTs. That problem should go away tonight and tomorrow.

Sept 1-2

Quoting StadiumEffect:



Thanks. I'm at FIU

Nice, same here!

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
94L may be a cyclone by Monday?

My forecast was depression tonight, so I'll move that to tomorrow. Tropical Storm status would be attained late Sunday, early Monday. Hurricane status? hmm... doubtful. SHIPS predicts it in 48 hours though.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Sept 1-2

The problem with that track is that there is no NW component yet, it's WNW with a far more touch of west than north.

Quoting StadiumEffect:


Thanks. I'm at FIU

One more question, what district are you from ?

Quoting FloridaTigers:


Nice, same here!

So you are both facing the possibility of being subjected to WS. LOL

ya I know.. and the model is at least over 12hrs old data to being based on 0600 AM UTC. =)

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
So you are both facing the possibility of being subjected to WS. LOL

it would be hilarious if they all got the same class

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
One more question, what district are you from ?

West Bay (yes I know, yet another one). lol

Quoting Relix:


My forecast was depression tonight, so I'll move that to tomorrow. Tropical Storm status would be attained late Sunday, early Monday. Hurricane status? hmm... doubtful. SHIPS predicts it in 48 hours though.

SHIPS has been the most aggressive trying to develop storms. It's been trying to make everything a hurricane this season it seems.

Quoting FloridaTigers:


Nice, same here!

Good stuff! There are a few FIU students on here I've noticed.

any one think that JIMENA will hit cat 5??

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


it would be hilarious if they all got the same class

I don't think it would be for them. They would probably go nuts having to deal with him face to face. Can't hit the ignore button then.

Quoting StadiumEffect:


West Bay (yes I know, yet another one). lol

Keep wondering if I will ever see another East Ender on here although Kman originates from here.

Quoting Tazmanian:
any one think that JIMENA will hit cat 5??

Maybe.