Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

well im off
I will come back and have another look at 8pm

....later =]

Quoting kmanislander:


Frankly, I hardly ever pay attention to the models when dealing with a weak system trying to develop. They tend to be more wrong than right IMO

so true

Quoting kmanislander:


Frankly, I hardly ever pay attention to the models when dealing with a weak system trying to develop. They tend to be more wrong than right IMO

yep your right =]
I tend to look at them since they give a general idea of where it could head but with 94L they have no idea

ok now im off xD

The wave or maybe eventually TD is going into carribean. Little confused why not hearing this from experts.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KROVAHN (T0911)
3:00 AM JST August 30 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near Ogasawara Shoto

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Krovahn (985 hPa) located at 29.9N 144.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 18 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 32.7N 140.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 38.4N 142.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 44.3N 150.1E - EXTRATROPICAL

Quoting iceman55:
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0

If you notice thats the highest number its gotten so far.

12z ECMWF...

ECMWF

Shear looks to be retreating ahead of 94L but is in the 20 knot range a little downstream.

So far it is doing well for the heat of the day and compared to how it looked a few hours ago a marked improvement.

Quoting centex:
The wave or maybe eventually TD is going into carribean. Little confused why not hearing this from experts.

Its moving north of due west, It might head into the carribean, who knows

All of the dynamic models take the system just north of the islands or further north.

Quoting centex:
The wave or maybe eventually TD is going into carribean. Little confused why not hearing this from experts.

That's what I was saying from yesterday afternoon but was very much in the minority. We will know soon enough but it is closing in on 50W quite quickly and would need a strong trough to pull it up from where it is now.

Quoting jipmg:


Its moving north of due west, It might head into the carribean, who knows

12 GMT 08/27/09 10.5N 25.6W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 08/27/09 10.7N 27.0W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 08/28/09 10.2N 32.0W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 08/28/09 10.5N 36.0W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/28/09 11.0N 36.0W 25 1010 Invest
00 GMT 08/29/09 11.3N 37.9W 25 1010 Invest
06 GMT 08/29/09 11.1N 40.0W 25 1010 Invest
12 GMT 08/29/09 11.1N 41.2W 25 1010 Invest
18 GMT 08/29/09 10.6N 42.0W 25 1010 Invest

How do you get N of due west please ?

They may need to go back to orange if this keeps up.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
12 GMT 08/27/09 10.5N 25.6W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 08/27/09 10.7N 27.0W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 08/28/09 10.2N 32.0W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 08/28/09 10.5N 36.0W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/28/09 11.0N 36.0W 25 1010 Invest
00 GMT 08/29/09 11.3N 37.9W 25 1010 Invest
06 GMT 08/29/09 11.1N 40.0W 25 1010 Invest
12 GMT 08/29/09 11.1N 41.2W 25 1010 Invest
18 GMT 08/29/09 10.6N 42.0W 25 1010 Invest

How do you get N of due west please ?

270 degrees from the first to the last point

Upper level winds will not be favorable for development in the Caribbean.

Quoting Dakster:
I think I need to break out "The Elements of Style" handbook I had in High School in order to post on a weather blog...

Grothar - I understand you just fine. Keep on posting...

What is the latest thinking on 94L?

Sorry, it took so long to answer. I am in agreement with many others who believe that 94L has a very good chance at development. The track is to early to detect. The models have moved so much and some models, as you know, have even dropped it. That may be temporary. It would appear that it is trying to do something. Drak or Storm and a few others may have better technical reasoning in which to answer your questions. Thanks for asking though.

I make the mistake all the time myself it has a broad circulation not a center yet. When it is at this stage a defined llc may form somewhere in the broader circulation, that is why they are hard to initialize and forecast a track at this stage. All though I think this one is forming very far south. This slows development but the waters are very warm. Also stops the storm from being pulled northward.

94l is a large vortex.

How it gathers momentum the next 72 Hours,will have a lot to do with its latitude then.

I'll place a bet on red.

Quoting kmanislander:


270 degrees from the first to the last point

Isn't that direct West ?

Addendum: Does anyone have an opinion as to the current spiralling currently around 94L? What would that indicate as to intensification?
One usually sees that in much more intense storms, do they not?

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Isn't that direct North ?

No due W exactly. N is 360

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
12 GMT 08/27/09 10.5N 25.6W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 08/27/09 10.7N 27.0W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 08/28/09 10.2N 32.0W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 08/28/09 10.5N 36.0W 25 1011 Invest
18 GMT 08/28/09 11.0N 36.0W 25 1010 Invest
00 GMT 08/29/09 11.3N 37.9W 25 1010 Invest
06 GMT 08/29/09 11.1N 40.0W 25 1010 Invest
12 GMT 08/29/09 11.1N 41.2W 25 1010 Invest
18 GMT 08/29/09 10.6N 42.0W 25 1010 Invest

How do you get N of due west please ?

Im looking at the entire circulation not the center since we dont really know where the center is =P

94L still has some obvious spin. The system has a large circulation and will need to moisten it's environment.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Isn't that direct West ?

Ok. I see you corrected your post.

ECMWF doesn't look bad, but I still find it hard to do such a dramatic turn.

94L may wax and wane some more over time as conditions out there are not ideal. However, the longer it spends that far S trying to organize the more likely it is to enter the Caribbean, models notwithstanding.

It will need to start on a track heading near 300 degrees pretty soon in order to miss the NE islands.

Quoting kmanislander:


No due W exactly. N is 360

I made a correction. I meant due west. Sorry.

Jimena now a top end Cat 2 now

EP, 13, 2009082918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1038W, 90, 970, HU

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I made a correction. I meant due west. Sorry.

I saw that, no problem. Easy to do on here LOL

Westward!!!!!!!!!1

93L only has to head around 290 degrees to brush the northern islands. The NHC takes it there and so do the models. None of the computer models have the system in the Caribbean with them agreeing in the system becoming better organized with time.

The SHIPS take 94L up to 90 knots near 105mph

Quoting Drakoen:
93L only has to head around 290 degrees to brush the northern islands. The NHC takes it there and so do the models. None of the computer models have the system in the Caribbean with them agreeing in the system becoming better organized with time.

That looks like assuming NW from current location.

What about the direction when 94 gets father N?