Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Adieu to Danny

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:50 AM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L

Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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651. JLPR 6:22 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
if 94L keeps slowing down and hits the warmer waters to its west it could blow up quicker since a slower pace would allow the system to form a better and stronger circulation which with the warmer waters would help develop convection in other words slower pace + warmer waters = TD I think, just my opinion =] Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

654. Relix 6:23 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
94L beginning for lift off! Hehe. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

655. unf97 6:24 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting JLPR: if 94L keeps slowing down and hits the warmer waters to its west it could blow up quicker since a slower pace would allow the system to form a better and stronger circulation which with the warmer waters would help develop convection in other words slower pace + warmer waters = TD I think, just my opinion =] I agree! Member Since: Septiembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

656. Relix 6:25 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

658. Drakoen 6:26 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
AL, 94, 2009082918, , BEST, 0, 106N, 420W, Member Since: Octubre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

661. cajunmoma 6:26 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Patrap, I just wanted to say thanks for posting the videos. Words can not express the feeling, agony, and fear that went through the minds and hearts of many that day and several days after. The events that unfolded, still feel like it was just yesterday. So my prayer is that all who suffered that day can find peace. The memories...well...I dont know what to say.

662. Relix 6:28 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

665. Relix 6:29 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting Drakoen: AL, 94, 2009082918, , BEST, 0, 106N, 420W, I think we had pinpointed yesterday it would be around 11.1. Guess we were wrong or it moved WSW a bit. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

666. Weatherkid27 6:30 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting Relix: 94L beginning for lift off! Hehe. Member Since: Junio 13, 2009 Posts: 15 Comments: 114

668. JLPR 6:31 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting Relix: I think we had pinpointed yesterday it would be around 11.1. Guess we were wrong or it moved WSW a bit. its probably the center jumping around =P but if it is at 10.6N at 42W already ... yikes! that's no good Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

669. stormsurge39 6:32 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
I will say we are seeing the birth of Erika, not that what i say holds much weight because im not a met or a met wanna be. I enjoy this site for the knowledgable info and the entertainment. Thank you

670. stormwatcherCI 6:33 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting cajunmoma: Patrap, I just wanted to say thanks for posting the videos. Words can not express the feeling, agony, and fear that went through the minds and hearts of many that day and several days after. The events that unfolded, still feel like it was just yesterday. So my prayer is that all who suffered that day can find peace. The memories...well...I dont know what to say. I live in Grand Cayman and just watching the coverage on CNN brought agony and heartbreak to me. We suffered in Ivan but not to the extent New Orleans suffered with Katrina. I hope I never live to see such devastation again. I cried many tears while watching it and still have a heavy heart for the folks who continue to struggle. God be with all of them. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

671. stormsurge39 6:37 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Has the pressure dropped any with 94L?

673. yonzabam 6:39 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: I live in Grand Cayman and just watching the coverage on CNN brought agony and heartbreak to me. We suffered in Ivan but not to the extent New Orleans suffered with Katrina. I hope I never live to see such devastation again. I cried many tears while watching it and still have a heavy heart for the folks who continue to struggle. God be with all of them. The scariest thing about Patrap's videos is that they were 11 miles east of NOLA, so that was storm surge and not the result of burst levees. Yet the water was on the roofs of the houses. Amazing that builders are allowed to build on such vulnerable land. Member Since: Julio 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1711

674. Dakster 6:39 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
I think I need to break out "The Elements of Style" handbook I had in High School in order to post on a weather blog... Grothar - I understand you just fine. Keep on posting... What is the latest thinking on 94L? Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

675. TexasHurricane 6:39 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting DM21Altestic: 10.6 north, I don't see a fish storm. yeah, it just seems to far south. Member Since: Julio 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

677. stormwatcherCI 6:41 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39: Has the pressure dropped any with 94L? It was 1011 this am and now Navy says 1010. Not dropped much. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

682. stormwatcherCI 6:44 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting yonzabam: The scariest thing about Patrap's videos is that they were 11 miles east of NOLA, so that was storm surge and not the result of burst levees. Yet the water was on the roofs of the houses. Amazing that builders are allowed to build on such vulnerable land. I agree, just like the people who build right on the beaches here. In Ivan the water went right through the homes totally gutting them. Member Since: Octubre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

683. stormsurge39 6:45 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting DM21Altestic: we need 94L to rise to 1.5, come on What do you mean?

684. JLPR 6:45 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting iceman55: 29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L .is that old yes or no /?? any one ??? well if it is old or not it is the highest so far with 94L since before that it was only TOO WEAK =P Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

685. Relix 6:46 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39: What do you mean? That he wants a depression =P Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

687. youngw3ath3rman 6:46 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
i see convection on the increase and if 94L was Danny, then the NHC might call it a hurricane Member Since: Septiembre 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

690. gordydunnot 6:48 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
94L coming in low on the radar, could be dangerous. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

691. kmanislander 6:49 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Good afternoon Well 94L is on the rebound and heading W Very interesting Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

692. midgulfmom 6:50 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting WXHEAD: I too have a warped sense of humor, I laugh at stuff that I shouldn't and get "elbowed" often. Accepting constructive criticism makes us wise, taking the other kind of criticism makes us strong. At the risk of being accused of Hijacking: How about 94L? Looks like it had its "Wheaties" this morning. (That comment dates me). I like it when they grow faster than predicted. Yes indeed, totally agree. 94L concerns me, just ask my husband. Now he knows how I feel during football season (excepting the Saints of course!). I am worried about a high pressure issue that was mentioned a few days ago possibly moving the storm most westward than northerly. I can't watch Katrina coverage today, still too raw for me. LONG STORY. Know what you mean about the humor thing. I've got some friends who get it and some who don't even understand why I'm laughing and appear deranged. I'm a wheaties boomer too! LOL :) Member Since: Julio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

693. Chiggy007 6:50 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
anybody watching that BIG wave that is still over Africa??

694. Dakster 6:51 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Looking at the visible sat of 94L, it looks like the center is just south of 10N. It might actually be at 43W too! Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

695. JLPR 6:52 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
well there goes the models lol xD they are all too far north even the southern consensus 94L is ignoring them and heading west Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

696. centex 6:52 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
I don't think 94L was ever a 11N, so I think they got it right now. It's got a board circulation but that was never centered at 11. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

697. kmanislander 6:52 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Vorticity also improving. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

698. Grothar 6:52 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting almartia: I never post.....however this was great. In the words of a wise latina woman, "Would you like fries wit dat?" You've got mail!! Member Since: Julio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525

699. JLPR 6:53 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting Chiggy007: anybody watching that BIG wave that is still over Africa?? It is still rather large but not as impressive Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

700. kmanislander 6:54 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
Quoting JLPR: well there goes the models lol xD they are all too far north even the southern consensus 94L is ignoring them and heading west Frankly, I hardly ever pay attention to the models when dealing with a weak system trying to develop. They tend to be more wrong than right IMO Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

701. JLPR 6:54 PM GMT en Agosto 29, 2009
well im off I will come back and have another look at 8pm ....later =] Member Since: Septiembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

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