Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting NEwxguy:
Morning to all,weather has certainly become interesting here on the east coast recently.

Good morning!

Remember the rule folks.... if a system isnt developed into a TD or TS... only go out 72 hrs on a movement... anything more than 3 days greatly decrease the accuracy! weaker systems and undeveloped systems will go more inline with the LLF!

Quoting RiverLuvr:
I am going fishing at Portsmouth Island NC this weekend, would love your opinions to cancel or not???

Again, too early to say. When a definite center forms, we should have more of an idea. If we predicted something now, it would be just pure speculation, which is not good, because forecast can and do change by the hour.

and why do the insurance companies give him so much credibility???

Quoting Floodman:


Good morning!

Morning Flood,don't particularly like that CMC track.

Quoting RiverLuvr:
I am going fishing at Portsmouth Island NC this weekend, would love your opinions to cancel or not???

To say the least... the stalled out frontal boundary should bring storminess that you would typically see with a frontal area... but so far as 92L is concern... is too early to tell. We should have a good idea by Tuesday night into Wednesday if 92L does develop.

Quoting AllStar17:


It is premature to try and speculate on where this system will eventually end up.

While grothar is correct in assuming that a weaker system would be less effected by higher level steering you are absolutely correct in stating that is is far too early to make any serious assumptions...not that this fact will stop folks in here from commenting about track, intensity future changes in terms of absolutes...lol

It's one of the more amusing reasons or coming in here...

Quoting RiverLuvr:
I am going fishing at Portsmouth Island NC this weekend, would love your opinions to cancel or not???

Don't cancel it yet, there's a lot of uncertainty with 92L and where will it go when it starts developing. We should know where it will go by Tues and if not Wed. Keep a close eye on it though.

Hurricane Bill major swell event for the Florida east coast-9-12 feet on Saturday-just sat on my balcony & watched. But Sunday, 4-7 and glassy, can you say zippers? Very fast waves, lots of power, way more manageable with fast rides. Needed to be on your game with this swell, long lines closing out meant choosing your waves carefully with this size. Bring on 92L.....

Quoting Hurricane009:
Does anybody know what the intensity will be when it hits or brushes North Carolina, because that is where i live.

Nobody said, or nobody should have said, that it is gonna do either of those. WAIT.

Quoting Hurricane009:
Does anybody know what the intensity will be when it hits or brushes North Carolina, because that is where i live.

Again, way too early. If I was to make a prediction, it would just be speculation, and not an accurate forecast.

Quoting Hurricane009:
Does anybody know what the intensity will be when it hits or brushes North Carolina, because that is where i live.

We don't know where it will go yet, probably an aim for the carolinas, if not GA. Too early to tell what the intensity of the storm will be.

Long time lurker here from Vancouver, Canada. These storms fascinate me. I have learned a lot from following the blog. Thanks for all of the information and great graphics.

Quoting Hurricane009:
Does anybody know what the intensity will be when it hits or brushes North Carolina, because that is where i live.

What will hit?

Quoting Grothar:


It does appear to be getting larger. However, I believe Dr. Masters's thinking is that the strong trough along the eastern seaboard, as depicted in his map above, is going to be a player in moving the system on a more northerly track. As we all know these features change by the minute. Are you of the opinion that 92L will stay on a more westerly track due to its current weak status?

As well as the fact this may be subtropical in nature. Troughs usually aren't this far down this time of year and it is very odd to be talking subtropical but, depending on how long the trough sits around it could be a STS if it were to develop.

Quoting Floodman:
The CMC with 92L making landfall in the area of Mass-Maine at 144 hours...thankfully the CMC is not the most accurate of the modeling suites for intensity and track:

You may need to rethink your view on the CMC. It was upgraded in June of this year:

In June 2009, the CMC GEM converted to a hybrid vertical coordinate system that is terrain-following in the boundary layer (sigma) and becomes purely isobaric (pressure) near the tropopause, a structure similar to that used by the other global models noted in Table 2. Also in June 2009, the upper boundary of the model was raised from 10 mb (32 km) to 0.1 mb (64 km). This change permits the incorporation of more satellite observations into the initial model analysis. This latest incarnation of the GEM is referred to as the GEM .Meso-Strato. version or simply .GEM-Strato..

Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models

It may perform as it has previously, but it may be better. Time will tell.

Quoting NEwxguy:


Morning Flood,don't particularly like that CMC track.

Fortunately they're really only decent with formation and terrible on intensity and track

Flood...xtrap has TS Conch at the bar in Zios at 72hrs wreaking havoc on the Birra Moretti

Quoting Hurricane009:
I meant to say when Tropical Storm or Hurricane Danny hits

First, there is no Danny as yet, secondly, 92L hasn't even made it to the surface. Any track that has it making landfall in the Carolinas is premature at best. Stop worrying so much and listen to the forecasts moving forward. We can;t even predict a landfall area within 500 miles with any accuracy until we're 72 hours out

Good morning all! Just checking in this morning before I leave for classes at noon. In looking at the latest available QuikSCAT data and analyzing satellite imagery, Invest 92 appears like it will take some time to develop into a tropical cyclone, if it ever does. Right now, I'm seeing very little low-level circulation, if any, and it will take some time for the disturbance to gain a defined low-level circulation center. Given that this disturbance lacks much organization and being that this is in such an early stage in development, I'm not buying any computer models right now and want to wait until we have a defined center and system for the computer models to base their forecasts off of. At this time, I think the NHC's outlook appears right on the money with their wording.

Just give Virgil Ward the xtrp model, he'll go away. :P

Quoting ConchHondros:
Flood...xtrap has TS Conch at the bar in Zios at 72hrs wreaking havoc on the Birra Moretti

That's not an extrapolated path, that's a dead bang certainty...how's things, brother?

Quoting Floodman:


That's not an extrapolated path, that's a dead bang certainty...hop's things, brother?

Yeah...its dead on

Morning flood

Quoting JRRP:

That seems to northerly to affect us in PR or even DR it seems. Of course it depends where, and IF, the COC forms.

For Sable Island, they probably did not fare well if you look at Docs last blog entry regarding buoy positioned at 42N/64W.

"Buoy 44150 was in the east eyewall of Bill at 9:30 am EDT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with waves of 40 feet."

Sable Island is at 43.95N/59.92W.

Quoting Floodman:


First, there is no Danny as yet, secondly, 92L hasn't even made it to the surface. Any track that has it making landfall in the Carolinas is premature at best. Stop worrying so much and listen to the forecasts moving forward. We can;t even predict a landfall area within 500 miles with any accuracy until we're 72 hours out

...and...besides...there is no such place as "the Carolinas"...

Quoting rareaire:
Morning flood

Howdy, rare...how are you doing?

Quoting Relix:


That seems to northerly to affect us in PR or even DR it seems. Of course it depends where, and IF, the COC forms.

i thought it as well

...no...I'm telling you "the Carolinas" don't exist...

Quoting NEwxguy:
Morning to all,weather has certainly become interesting here on the east coast recently.

Morning NE-

So the summer that never was in Northeast...and now the Tropics keep wanting to come to you!

This system will not "Probably" be fully tropical... more of a subtropical system...too much cold air in it maybe..

Its all good here flood, high in the 80' nice 5 mph wind, not going to complain in august. Would like to see that wave develop some so we can all go drink a beer with Press!! in the north or south carolina area!

Quoting presslord:


...and...besides...there is no such place as "the Carolinas"...

Point well taken, press, and I apologize...it's a bad habit of those of us in the rest of the country to make statements that take in both states, north and south and call them the "Carolinas"...kind of like people calling New Orleans "Nyu Orleenz"...

Floater

aren't the Carolinas right next to the Dakotas? LOL


...just stirrin' the pot :)

Quoting scottsvb:
This system will not "Probably" be fully tropical... more of a subtropical system...too much cold air in it maybe..

Respectfully, I do not think so. Once the ULL weakens and gets out of the way, this should begin to organize faster. Also, it should have a warm core because when the ULL weakens, it will be able to pump out the cold air the ULL has infiltrated into the system.

Will this go west?LOL

Quoting pearlandaggie:
aren't the Carolinas right next to the Dakotas? LOL


...just stirrin' the pot :)

Quoting P451:


You might be on to something here... hmmm.

Wow, look at all the extra beachfront property for Virginia!

LOL

...that map is VERY nice...

Quoting presslord:
...no...I'm telling you "the Carolinas" don't exist...

Do the Dakotas exist?