Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

hmm a orange and yellow in less than 12 hours could we see one more circle pop up somewhere

To Keeper of the Gate Can you tell me if weather over South Fla. Will clear by midnight? thank you Star.

http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_da d=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Quoting Drakoen:
Low level vorticity product from PSU:

How often is it updated?

Quoting 7544:


yeap it cold happen here as we blog its really bursting out at this hour and might be leaving the ull it was attached to i think

Thanks.
I have been under the impression that ULL create a high shear environment so if the ULL is moving away that would relax the shear, right?

and ULL is upper level low, where as a tropical cyclone is a LLL,
lower level low? =)

Quoting klaatuborada:
My local newspaper printed an article where someone called Hurricane Bill and Hurricane Bob "disappointing" hurricanes. Link

I sent this today as a letter to the Editors. I wonder if they'll print it.

Dear Sirs:

RE: August 23, 2009 article "Hurricane Bill restricts Cape and Islands recreation"

I take issue with the comments of Mr. Mitrokostas re: Hurricane Bob being a "disappointing" hurricane. Perhaps where Mr. Mitrokostas was, Bob was "disappointing", but from where I was I was scared and Hurricane Bob was more than "power outages" and "wind outside". Bob's storm surge was significant, and several areas in Rhode Island, Buzzards Bay, Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard reported extensive wind and storm-surge damage not seen since Hurricane Carol in 1954. Hurricane Bob left eighteen people dead and $2.8 billion dollars in damage. In Falmouth the Admiralty Apartments had the roof blown off. In Provincetown 38 boats were sunk by the high storm surge with wind causing building damage as well. Motels lost their roofs in Yarmouth and Truro. Route 6A and all of the Cape were littered with downed trees and power lines and people's lives were disrupted for weeks. This storm did not hit us directly and was only a Cat 2 when it hit, but "disappointing"?

What is a "disappointing hurricane"? One that doesn't cause billions of dollars in damage? Does a hurricane like Katrina have to hit Cape Cod in order for people to respect the power of these storms? I think the miracle of Hurricane Bill is that it only caused 3 deaths, and missed so many people and places that would have been devastated by a direct hit. I for one was not "disappointed" but happy that it passed us by. I know people who have been in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, and they paint a picture more horrifying than anything I can imagine. It's not an exciting thing when a major storm system is headed for the Cape. It's a scary thing, and should be. Let's all be careful what we wish for. And kudos to the officials that took this storm seriously; closing the beaches saved lives. If Bill had taken a slight turn Westward it would have been a much different scenario. My thanks to the NHC and NOAA for their great work.

Sincerely

Me

Good response. I hope they print it.

Quoting futuremet:


How often is it updated?

Every 3 hours

plz no...... :( i know its a model but that scares me.

Quoting Grothar:
http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&a mp;_da d=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Grothar - still trying, huh? :)

If you right-click the image itself, and "copy image location" and then past that without the "s" it will work. Should look like this:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

The 92 would be 93 for 93L.

Quoting Drakoen:


Every 3 hours

It's a pretty good product and you can run a loop on it.

guys 93L need to be watch it can spin up vary fast

Going into phase II of tropical atlantic activity I see.

Could someone please post the Special TWO?

The UKMET model tracks the system just east of Florida

Quoting atmoaggie:
Could someone please post the Special TWO?

I need to see it at least 20 times to be satisfied

Where is 93L expected to move?

Gotta run. BBL.

Drak, the most of 12Z models incl. the ECMWF show a US landfall. The 18Z models are much further east. Is this because of the "complex situation" you were talking about?

Quoting Vortex95:


Unless somthing happens in steering soon. It could turn into somthing in the EPAC.

well i guess its safe to use the word west for 93l lol

Quoting atmoaggie:
Could someone please post the Special TWO?

read the post few commets down and you find it

Quoting Tazmanian:



read the post few commets down and you find it

Sry, Taz, dry mockery of the 3 full copies we have is what that was.

LOL, talk about uncertainty in the forecast!

Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Drak, the most of 12Z models incl. the ECMWF show a US landfall. The 18Z models are much further east. Is this because of the "complex situation" you were talking about?

If you are referring to the BAMM guidance then there is really no argument. The cannot see such a dynamic change in the steering currents as some of the higher resolution models can.

Pacific bound..

Quoting Seastep:


Grothar - still trying, huh? :)

If you right-click the image itself, and "copy image location" and then past that without the "s" it will work. Should look like this:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

The 92 would be 93 for 93L.

Noticed that did ya!!!! My wife is laughing so hard in the background, she informed me I should switch to astronomy and just go out and look at the stars. What I am really trying to post is the track on 93L. Help me out here, Seastep. Could you post it for me and say this is what Grothar was attempting to post. Who knows, it might get a laugh (like someone else in the room here!!!!)

Quoting mobilegirl81:
Where is 93L expected to move?

All steering layers have it moving west unless it drifts north, gets super strong and then it might go north.

Quoting Vortex95:


Unless somthing happens in steering soon. It could turn into somthing in the EPAC.

I don't know that the SSTs really are in it's favor until it does get into EPAC.



A little better there:

Quoting JupiterFL:


wrobble, wrobble
Shake it, Shake it

Yes,Danny will be larger than three typhoon Tips.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Pacific bound..

Finally...a system that moves west as it makes landfall. WSJFV would love 93L.

Quoting AllStar17:
LOL, talk about uncertainty in the forecast!

So if the spread were evenly distributed in opposite directions, do the automated algorithms generating an ensemble mean churn out that it is just going to not move and be a permanent feature?

Quoting Drakoen:


If you are referring to the BAMM guidance then there is really no argument. The cannot see such a dynamic change in the steering currents as some of the higher resolution models can.

I was referring to the 12Z CMC, NOGAPS and ECMWF.

18Z GFS.......has 92L pulling a Bill part 2.

ECMWF Forecast 500mb
120 Hours

Atmo, The water temps might not be great, but 93L it has a strong anti-cyclone above it and great convergence and divergence. Good for strengthening.

Quoting CatastrophicDL:

I was referring to the 12Z CMC, NOGAPS and ECMWF.

The CMC and NOGAPS foresee the most strengthening with the system which would induce a more poleward movement. The thing is regardless of how strong this is, if it bypass the first trough then it will be under a ridge (ECMWF/UKMET)which could allow it to come further west. Then there is the issue of how strong the trough is behind the ridge. Whether it comes in flat or whether ti comes in deep. The models foresee a closed upper cyclone or mid level trough forming in the GOM which I believe will protect the GOM states with the exception of Florida. Everyone from Florida northward should monitor the progression of this system.

Thanks for the explanation Drak!

Eastern NC weather guys are downplaying it as an increased risk of showers and t-storms this weekend.

I noticed that the GFS shows a third storm developing off africa and moving toward the CONUS. My thinking is the beginning MJO upward/Negative NAO being responsible for an upward swing.imo

Going by what has happened in recent previous seasons. (I know this is bad, as past performance doesn't gaurantee future performance)

It seems like multiple Hurricanes take roughly the same path throughout the season. Notice I did not say ALL OF THEM DO, just that numerous ones do. For example last years straight west runs across the Atlantic and into Mexico, and in 2004 and 2005 , the multiple Florida strikes.

So, Ike, you comment on Bill Part 2 seems very reasonable to me at the moment, going by nothing but historical reference at the moment.

That was an interesting post about Hurricane Bill and Bob about being disappointed hurricanes. Hurricane Bill was a disaster averted by mother nature. Nature had simply evened the playing field. The eastern CONUS trough was a day early which allowed Bill to become sheared and pushed out to sea. The trough was neutral to possibly negative as it pulled eastward. It could have been a situation of Katrina in NO. Why do I say this? Like New Orleans in 2005, Cape Cod, MA only has one way out and would take several days worth of preparation to prepare for a hurricane making landfall on the South Coast of New England. Hurricane Katrina spared New Orleans because of undergoing an EWRC in time right before landfall. This period of the EWRC allowed the very little effects the trough had on her to affect her and allow her winds to weaken enough from causing a much bigger and more catastrophic landfall. The superdome of NO had experienced wicked wind damage on the roof, but Katrina could have been stronger, so nature evened the playing field a little in time right at landfall. With Hurricane Bill, he was large enough to not allow him to strengthen rapidly like I believed he had the chance to do so. A further westward track would have allowed a large hurricane a better chance to affect New England a category three or four hurricane. This would have been a big disaster. RTE 6 on Cape Cod, MA is the only road out of Cape Cod, MA. We would need several days to get out of dodge before a major hurricane came up the coast. The earlier arrival of the trough by a day allowed wind shear to not allow Bill to strengthen quickly. I am just saying that Cape Cod, MA is lucky that we were spared and the trough saved our area from Hurricane Bill.

talk about a fast spin up i dont think TD 12E is a TD any more i think we have are next E PAC name storm

I forsee the models nudging left some on 92. Nothing extreem like a Texas landfall, but inching left for the next 24 hours or so.

Drak, the problem with this, is that we have a relatively short amount of time to monitor this system. The models are expecting a tropical cyclone to form near the Bahamas as early as 48hrs. The anomalously complex upper level set up making this inconvenient for forecasters. As a result of the remarkable credibility the ECMWF has acquired this year, I am leaning toward its forecasts.

Quoting Vortex95:


Drak can you clarify, when you saying all of the GOM states except Florida are you saying the GOM side of Florida,has a chance of being affected?

No, he likely meant the east coast.