Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again
A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.
Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.
Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Then stop hitting refresh so much?
LOL
Way to spoil it Taz.
this is not a fun blog this is a Tropic blog
the ones are being off key can you get back on key Please
same here.....lol lol
Due to prior exploration, the first settlement of Pensacola was large, with over 1,400 people on 11 ships from Vera Cruz, Mexico landing on August 15, 1559, led by Don Tristán de Luna y Arellano. However, weeks later on September 19, 1559, the colony was decimated by a hurricane which killed hundreds, sank five ships, grounded a caravel, and ruined supplies. The 1,000 survivors decided to relocate and resupply the settlement but, due to famine and attacks, the effort was abandoned in 1561. About 240 people sailed to Santa Elena (today's Parris Island, South Carolina), but another storm hit there, so they sailed to Cuba and scattered. The remaining 50 at Pensacola were taken back to Mexico, and the Viceroy's advisers concluded that northwest Florida was too dangerous to settle, a belief that endured for 135 years. (Wikipedia)
Is Ingalls. And they saw a lot more than one might think during Katrina. Had a functioning anemometer through it.
God forbid we have fun.
Who knows what could happen.
We might get off topic.
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Test,Test...
Did Frederic reck them in '79?
Where are we?
your going to in up get ban if you keep this up
sometimes the blog kicks in and out due to high traffic.
Yea, they have been known to delay advisory because of issuing warnings and watches.
The NHC dont issue our advisories, we do. They advise us and we can decide to follow.
Taz take a chill......go to bed!
GO REBELS!!
They may make the advisory faster!
ROFLMAO
Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
this fun is better then all the fighting i have seen on here.
OH NO........ROFLMAO
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