Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again
A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.
Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.
Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Can you tell me where exactly do you see a 90L LLC - need coordinates! I am seeing it around 11.5N - 30W or so... please confirm!! thx
lol where on the page then
Agreed. Very exciting. I love this time of the year. And yes I am a weather geek!
A computer error? When last I heard, you were going to install a Windows Media player (6.4?) What happened?
Yeah, but this is their welcome message:
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Thanks....I don't go with just what everyone else says...i do my own thing.....I respect StormW a ton and read his anaylsis very throughly. Sometimes i agree with him and some times in don't....but, i sure don't just cut and paste anyone elses analysis....again Thanks.
I'm sorry to hear about that. And yes I'm having a good evening :)
Interesting Weather456, I'll be praying for you about this storm, looks to be headed straight to the Islands.
thats an old image
92L could be developing.
Head back to the chat room. I'm pretty handy with computers...I can probably help you out of what happened...
and btw im not kidding on the software, it is a software that a meteorologist from the NHC gave me, and i can't tell u.
Actually this show winds strong enough to qualify as a TS IMO
Canes you mean i can't give anyone a copy of that secret CD you made for me......OMGOSH!.....LMAO
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_s_loop.shtml
Just glad to know that you, StormW, Weather456, and I all perform our own analysis and we all stick by our own methods and approaches. You continue to do an amazing job.
Don't know i just logged on also...looks like TD2 is nearly a Storm just looking at it an RECON appears to have confirmed nearly the same.
If you got a CD, why can't I? Cane likes you better than me, lol. Just kidding.
Anything can happen, given the right atmospheric conditions. But this is too far out to begin working yourself up needlessly. Keep watch, but do not panic. There is considerable uncertainty in the ultimate track of this system.
Uh..so your saying everyone else doesn't? Buddy, I do the same, take last season for example. This season I've not been doing much forecasting and analyzing but I felt you may of left a few of us out.
thanks for that info
Click help, then click Welcome Message. If it's not there, then open it in windows Explorer, then do it.
It's hilarious that the welcome message is a theat to being legally punished.
RECON HAS JUST REPORTED 27KNOT WINDS AND 42KNOT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE!!!!!!!!!WE HAVE TD#2!!!!!!PRESSURE IS 1009MB!!!!!!!!!!! I AM NOT LYING THIS IS FOR REAL!!!
I'm so happy to be knowledgeable enough about tropical meteorology in order to analyze things for myself, and make my own forecast. :)
The more west it will come. Caribbean bound MAY be a good call.
dude thats 11 years old, thats an image of pre Georges in 1998 which was 92L
Circulation appears to be becoming less elongated also. Good sign for regeneration. We'll probably have TD2 tonight or tomorrow morning.
how is that good?
LMAO!!
rebirth
ATTENTION YOU DON'T HAVE AUTHORITY TO SAY IT IS TD #2 YET. WAIT TILL NHC SAYS SO
I think you might be right about it being around 11.5N - 30W, but I am not the greatest at coordinates.
Yes, that too, Adrian. I for one am hoping that it develops quickly and becomes powerful enough to recurve. This could really be a monster if it hits that TCHP in the Caribbean.
Viewing: 2251 - 2301
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