Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again
A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.
Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.
Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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how can you tell? lol. there haven't been any storms for it to track.
just cause you always want the storm to hit S. FL and disregard any model that shows it going elsewhere doesn't mean that they aren't reliable.
12.5N 28.8W. The system has yet to acquire a well defined circulation.
it has it on this site.
just click on the invest then it will show the ensamble members up top. then click on it to view.
Models have there good days and bad days, most are bad days when you consider how long range people are talking about. 7-8 days you can throw the end right out the window. Remember there models not reality. i dont believe any of them that far out. 1-3 yes there a possibility, but remember weather patterns change very quickly especially in tropical regions, thunder storms can appear in 10 mins.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf.html
Nice cross section...
It's all the same model, with different conditions. That's why they are so bunched.
Could be classified as TD3 by 5PM or 11PM tonight.
DMAX on both of these system will be interesting indeed. DMIN should be doing its handy work anytime now.
the invest is less organized now, personally I see former td2 reaching ts Ana than the invest right now its looks like a sheared mess.
Are you beginning to believe this storm might not be the big monster it was hyped up to be
Thanks for the link *bookmarked*
No it just has issues. Look at the water vapor imagery and you can see dry air pushing up into it.
The fact that it's so huge means I'm likely to see something. Especially if it goes south I'll be in that dreaded NE quadrant.
Better to be safe than sorry, Floridians.
I was actually directing it at WS...but there are several people to whom it could be applied. Look, my point is is that if the Euro is telling me one things, and the dime a dozen statistical models(such as the BAMs, LBAR, etc.) are telling me something else, well, based on my years of (amatuer) experience, it's a no-brainer which one I'll lean towards. In this case, with the GFS, GFDL, HWRF and other high end models siding with the statisticals, I think that the more southern track is correct. I'm just making a point that you shouldn't totally disregard one of the best models out there just cause u don't like it.
Thanks for the link.
Yeah i see it....but i remember the models were predicting ideal conditions and the NHC had it developing almost instantly they gave it a high chance to develop in the next 48 hours and that was 48 hours ago....
The NHC knows that some of the models are better in certain climatic conditions than others. The atmospheric setup in 2008 was different from what it is in 2009, so I don't think the Euro's credibility with this storm can be extrapolated based strictly on that. Again, the NHC knows what conditions each model does best in, and when they designate this TD3 and start posting a track, we'll get a better idea of which models they are giving more credit to.
As a Gulf Stater I have a personal interest in NOT seeing a major hurricane get into the hot tub and blow up to a probable Category 5 before slamming the central coast, but right now there are more credible models that have predicted that outcome than predicted the Euro outcome of a fisherman/woman. Even more seem to be predicting an East Coast problem. The Euro is the outlier, and unless/until the NHC sees it differently, it should be treated as such.
02L gets named first
Pretty sure TD2 would get the name.
I am.
02L....finally I can breathe...cough.
Sorry, I was looking for a reason as well and didn't ask for it.
Ha Ha. I was trying to turn your comment into something dirty, and sadly I've got nothing...
Most storms don't roll of the coast and start going immediately. It takes awhile. I remember Frances in particular. But once they start intensifying, they do it FAST. So don't take the fact that this one hasn't done anything yet, to mean that it won't. Keep in mind how bad it looked this time yesterday, and how it blew up overnight. Tonight should be interesting to watch.
lmao!!!
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