Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again
A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.
Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.
Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.
Jeff Masters
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UKMET
It has always amazed me that you can have a wall blown out and still have everything nice and neat on that computer stand. I witness a lot of crazy post hurricane things like that (frances and jeanne).
How awesome! I have a lot of respect for those guys!
How is school? Or did you start the semester yet?
Should be out at 2:55 PM EDT
Link
Comes out at 2 pm CDST.
I'll bail if I gotta Pat....just like to take a few precautions in case it help. Heck, hubby want to find GIANT bungee cords to secure the roof to the slab!
I hope they all are fish storms. They are tearing down a high school piece by piece right now on my street. The debris field would destroy many a home insufficiently prepared.
How is school? Or did you start the semester yet?
yeah i thought you would know him he was on the news for saying that shooting victim's life in Lafayette....and no i didn't start the semester yet i start on the 24th(hopefully) lol
Nice collective post
I agree. I've seen my share of photoshopped images.
It can happen. I was down in Punta Gorda after Charley and saw that a few times.
I suggest you fill out a service ticket and get In Line,consider it FEMA ice waiting practice reedzone
Looks like we'll get rain over the weekend.
I wouldn't be shocked... Every time they show the big one coming it seems to turn off and hit somewhere else or never form.
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Try with add-ons disabled.
Wood, Plylox, etc. is a waste of time. It gives one a false sense of security. Anyone know what wind speeds modern double pane storm windows are rated at? 150 mph straight line dry, and 125 straightline wet. That's stronger than any peice of plywood so don't waste your time and effort boarding up. doesn't take much to puncture that balsa wood you put up. Either get metal storm shutters or nothing at all.
I an assure you crackpots those are are
Charley Pics from Punta Gorda.
www.thomasmichaelcorcoran.com
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I just know there will be one coming.
hi thanks its not just me now its from post 858 ID IS P451 he did thuis on 3 other pages and everytime he post those 3 images everything frezzes SO HE OR SHE MUST LINK THEM ITS HAPPEN THREE TIMES ALL ON DIF PAGES ITS NOT FUNNY ANYMORE
Thanks Ike - will be interesting if get comes closer to GFS or continues its Fish Tales.
Talk about something that sux. (Pun intended)
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