Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again
A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.
Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.
Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well i'm leaning more towards Florida and the GUlf but anything is possible right now we will know more in a few days
The SST's just South of New Orleans are up to a toasty 92 degF. The majority of the gulf SST's are roughly 90 deg.F.
Just think what an organized system would do if it hits that large area of extra warm water just prior to landfall.
I believe that answer comes when it becomes a TD as NHC then puts % on that.
TD2
90L
AOI
I was right.. I missed about 400 posts.
...and my "gut feeling" is that you are 100% correct...
The Upper Level Low to TD2's north is increasing ventilation (divergence) and supporting an increase in convection.
The newest GFS shows the ULL moving west and not increasing shear, but providing good outflow to the north of TD2.
Admittedly, the GFS doesn't make much of TD2, but we HAVE to remember that TD2's interal structure is tiny and not well resolved with the resolution of the GFS.
In contrast, the large 90L is relatively well depicted given its larger circulation and development is shown.
Old TD2 also has a nice envelope of moisture surrounding it and warm SSTs in its path.
All in all there is a lot going for it...and now with a more southern track...we NEED to watch this more carefully!
I hope not!!!
poof
I hate waiting. lol.
Check out the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) forecast for MIA.
Control runs from GFS and GEM and GFS deterministic all indicate quiet weather> CMC deterministic shows CAT-1 conditions.
Point forecasts from ensembles can be interesting. Small differences in modeled feature locations can create completely different forecasts. In this case, the ensemble mean is likely to be right for the wrong reasons. There will probably be some kind of tropical system in the area..just not right over MIA.
Get your board ready. Haha.
Taking me a while to read all this crap and catch up!! lol..
Both 90L, both mid august, both off Africa.. wow. Extremely similar.
US Marines are trained,as Modern Day "Jedi's" to Ignore ones gut feeling and forge forward into Battle.
We also Know that Intuition,along with Best available Data inputed along side,usually will result in a Solution that benefits a successful Outcome of the Prime Mission,..
And with that,can someone get me another roll of TP ?
~jk'in of course no hard feelings
(Passes the Charmin)
models are meant to be used as guidance purposes only and do not depict final outcome to any one event things can and will change
so if a model don't know where an when what makes you think anyone else knows
i will tell ya where its going its going forward 1 degree from its present location and it will continue moving 1 degree from its previous point till it hits something that is in front of it thats about as much as we really know at the moment anything else is just a rough idea
the best advice for anyone have a plan listen to local AUTH. evac if ordered to do so the life you could be saving may be your own
Football on a hurricane blog. It is an interesting connection.
the 06UTC HWRF run moved TD2 on a path curving to the northwest quite quickly. I wonder if this is in response to a weakness caused by the ULL..
the 06UTC GFDL kept TD2 weak
I guess we'll see here quite soon!
Also, I think we may have RED again on the NHC map for 2 pm for old TD2
Geez Ike,..you gotta tilt dat Machine Like a Bad O
pinball ,and keep dat Bugger away from the GOM
Yeah there are thousands of school kids with there eyes closed hoping it comes before back to school happens down in South Florida
90L looks pretty impressive, and does a lot remind me of Pre-Dean in 2007. The models are in close agreement with the exception of the ECMWF which underestimates the forward speed of 90L, that this will either hit the Northern Lesser Antilles or go slightly north of that. A Similar Hurricane to this would be Donna. The NOGAPS shows a one two punch to Florida, but does In my opinion to much with ex TD2.
I'm glad you said that,it's getting annoying the same question over and over.
All he means is the "is it gonna hit s florida?" "will it hit florida" is really annoying when its not even a TD yet. Sure the models are very interesting and somewhat consistent but its still a while away.
Why?
Yep. It really is nice when hurricanes come through. Wilma gave me a 2 week vacation in October/November 2005. It was nice :)
Way to early to say what will happen but homecasters and wishcasters just keep going, my ignore list will grow and grow and grow.
Lets use our heads. Still 0.0.0 and we know that will change, all we can say is somebody from mexico to the northeast coast will be effected at some point, by something. (probably)
Quit rushing these storms into the East coast or GOM, you will usually be wrong. They will do what they do. Last time I checked storms don't check the models.
Problem is....he'll keep asking, hoping someone responds.
ROFLMAO... KOG your wasting your breath... want to borrow my head beating icon, it seems to help me.
Don't tell us, tell him !!! lol
ex TD-2 still has a strong LLC, so we'll still have to watch it. Right now its sweeping up all that dust and dry air in front of 90L.
The only question there is.... Who owns the house edge???
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