Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again
A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.
Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.
Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Take me off that list, 3 is more than enough for me.
In the 3 years I've watched the tropics closely, I can count the times the models have been this close this far out on one hand.
I think it is because it first curves when it starts heading from a Westerly direction towards WNW and NW then "recurves" once the heading starts towards the NNE and points further East.
Not sure but my best guess LOL
When a Large CV Hurricane becomes embedded in the Easterlies ,they can,and sometimes do..plow thru LARGE or medium sized synoptic Challenges. No one wants a CONUS strike,nor a Island strike,that would be ones own Madness.
Never discount what May occur,and prepare NOW for in the event a Large CV storm comes into your area. Thats being Pro-active instead od re-active,
And remember,Calamity Knows no Borders,only Mens Minds and Maps do.
How's by you?
ex TD2 - a "star" fish storm?
Hard to trust models with a weak undeveloped circulation, especially when located kinda close to another trying to pull it together storm..
Sure. It takes a large strong Cat 4 or 5 to do that. Gilbert or Wilma sized.
Yeah and that is where this one will probably end up heading. If the NHC says East Coast or recurve you can pretty much bank on it. I learned my lesson going against those guys especially during the last few years and up to now.
Yes everyone should review their Hurricane plans this weekend - just in case.
Exactly. Large hurricanes tend to create their own weather around them. I could rattle off examples, but overall, with very deep pressures, they are steered around by an extremely high air current, primarily around 200mb.
Take me off the list as well. I am tired of evacuating and worrying about what I will come home to. BUT, I do like to keep up so that I can make plans early IF I need to.
I think into the gulf...
yes a star but not a fish storm
Study Finds Big Storms on a 1,000-Year Rise
The North Atlantic Ocean has spawned more hurricanes and tropical storms over the last decade than it has since a similarly stormy period 1,000 years ago, according to a new study.
The research, published yesterday in the journal Nature, tries to trace the pattern of storms along North America's Atlantic and Gulf coasts back to A.D. 500, well before humans were recording weather observations.
Taken together, he said, they suggest that warmer temperatures produce more storm activity -- meaning that coming climate change could increase the frequency of hurricane activity.
"The paleoclimate evidence seems to reinforce the notion that, all other things being equal, when you have warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, you see more activity," he said.
Kerry Emanuel, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has published studies linking climate change to stronger hurricanes, called the new research "an impressive piece of work, melding two completely independent approaches to estimating past hurricane activity."
Emanuel said the Nature study "shows that hurricane activity is indeed quite sensitive to climate, and although we are still not completely sure about global warming effects, the paper raises again the flag that potentially they could be large."
NyTimes
On this NY Times Article on storm pattern from
500 or 1000 years ago:
Wow, now That takes some serious audacity
to say they know what really happened back then for storm frequency and strength, haha.
We are not so sure about storms 100 years ago,
so I have to take this article with a grain, or a whole darn shaker of salt.
It's also easy to claim to be scientific about something that distant and vague and declare to have knowledge of this sort, due to one being "a scientist". We do have Ice Cores and Tree Rings etc for reference, but these things are not too specific or accurate, giving only general clues.
I would love to know what kind of Actual Data they have and how they use that data to extrapolate their conclusions.
What is their methodology, and control over error, how subjective is the analysis??
The New York Times also has an obvious editorial slant that makes some of their articles a bit suspect (my opinion here).
Interesting food for thought however.
Al Gore would be proud...
One can draw conclusion from the GFDL that has a rapidly strengthening cyclone just north of the leewards moving into increasingly warmer waters. Last ships had 107mph at the leewards.
so am I
When puns are outlawed only only outlaws will use puns :)
Time of Latest Image: 200908141200
Prayers and Preparation, per usual
Best to not have your neighbor's tin roof take away your last breath!
Yes, it looks to be headed your way.
Tropical Update
Hi 456...
I would if I wasn't at work! I don't have all my bookmarked stuff here.
As long as ex-TD2 generate convection, it will serve pretty much as a dust sweeper for 90L.
im not wishing it here because I love my reduced rate homeowners insurance right now..
Don't look at the GFS. I mean, really don't look at the GFS saying it is coming right to SEFL, and going to stall directly over your house. ;)
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