TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 — Blog Index
Can you name which models are projecting a Florida hit? Do you know how inaccurate models are this far out, not only for intensity, but for track as well? Look, its obvious you're new at this whole tracking thing. Study guys like StormW, Drak, Hurricane23, or Kori for their level headed analysis and learn from them. This blog is full of knowledge, and its best to just read than post often misleading doomcast scenarios.
Like Wilma!
yeah, I guess I was still reading it when it was posted by someone else. What were the odds of that happening?
Looks like there's a little interaction between 90L and 2L.
in this case 100%. LOL.
There is PLENTY of evidence of Past Hurricane buried deep in the Ground in Se. La.
Here the Corps of enginneers found after Katrina in core samples,a layer of peat and cypress that was from a Storm Larger Than Katrina about 400 years ago,and that is also recorded in Indian History past down from Gen to Gen.
Page 1
Geologic Conditions Underlying the 2005 17th Street Canal
Levee Failure in New Orleans
J. D. Rogers, M.ASCE
Abstract: A careful program of subsurface sampling and cone penetration test soundings was employed to characterize the geologic
conditions beneath the failed portion of the 17th Street Canal levee in New Orleans, where a 150 m long section of the levee and floodwall
translated up to 16 m when flood waters rose to 1–2 m of the wall’s crest on August 29, 2005, during Hurricane Katrina. The subsurface
conditions are characterized by discrete layers of fill placed upon the historic cypress swamp, which is underlain by a deeper, prehistoric
cypress swamp. These swamp deposits were consolidated beneath the levee, and in the area of the 2005 failure, the swamp materials
infilled a natural depression believed to be an old slough, which dipped below the sheetpile tips for a distance of about 50 m, which
corresponds to where the breach appears to have initiated. Detailed examination of the recovered soils suggest that recent hurricanes
periodically inundated the swamps with saline and/or brackish water, which cause a mass dieoff of swamp vegetation and flocculation of
suspended clays, due to the sudden increase in salinity. These conditions promote deposition of discontinuous clay seams beneath layers
of organics, which are then covered by fresh water swamp deposits. This sequence is repeated, like a series of tree rings, throughout the
swamp deposits. The cypress swamp deposits lying beneath the levee also exhibit high hydraulic conductivity. These materials contain
corky wood, and recovered samples often exhibited densities less than water. Nine of the post-Katrina borings recovered intact samples
of a basal rupture surface comprised of organic silty clay exhibited near zero residual shear strength after shearing 80 to 100 mm
LOL ..hindsight is 20/20. ;)
Difluence or not it will be more energy going into the GOM this weekend.
Erm... I forgot an "as." It should read "...because there is not as much mixage..."
6Z GFS at 168 hours...
wasn't TD2?
Ill be doing the same this evening as well Chief..
Your first as your Senior to me.
I think they might in the next TWO.
Assuming you live in the USA....It's close to FOUR thousand miles away from the USA.
Just my 2 cents: TD2 Has a prayer, but with 90L it is we that should be saying our prayers- this could be the first major of the season, especially with TD2 sucking in the dry air north, clearing the deck for 90L.
That's the key... if that first shortwave is strong enough it will cause to go through the Islands, else if its not deep enough then it should shave the southern Greater Antilles...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat
Link
Thanks!
still not looking good
It shows it 800 miles further west on the 12Z run compared to the 6Z at the same period in time. Something ain't right.
I have a hard time believing anything can hit the U.S. with that kind of trough in place
agree the low is now tring to intestify as per our local mets stay tuned
well it isn't even a storm yet technically, is it? I tend to save my bad feelings until something is at least within a three day chance of me. Realistically, this is WAY out there. You can remain calm.. lol
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 — Blog Index