TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If New Orleans gets a windstorm, it may resolve some of our lingering problems with abandoned post-K/flood houses.
Yes, chances are a category 2 hurricane with a 400 mile wind field would cause much more damage to a larger area in comparison to a category 4 hurricane with a wind field of about 100 miles
Looks closed and tight enough to me.
It is virtually a depression and has a way to travel and develop, before reaching.
Remember Ivan ramped up REALLY quickly.
But, that is me, a weather amateur.
NOGAPS takes that here...Florida panhandle.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TROUGH
TODAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION SHIFTS EWD.
MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW ALSO MOVES EAST INTO THE
NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THE WEAK BOUNDARY JUST NW OF THE CWA
LIFTS NWD TODAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NWRN ZONES TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH LIKELY POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER HISPANOLA MOVES WNW INTO THE ERN GULF.
SUNDAY...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE WRN HALF WITH
LOWER CHANCES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR SPREADS WWD TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. HIGH TEMPS DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALOFT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
CWA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN EITHER A SE OR ELY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO HAS MAINTAINED A WEAKER WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST...DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND RECURVING EAST OF THE
CONUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS THE SECOND WAVE INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...BUT MAINTAINS A STRONGER WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHICH
KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...AND AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED...IT IS IN THE SLOT BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THEREFORE...NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE INTERESTING TO SAY THE
LEAST.
Looks like in about a week.
what are you refering to? 90l or td2
Seems this path to the northern islands with 90L is consistently appearing more and more everyday.
Should that pan out, it will be in the danger zone for South / Central Floridian's. Last year the models consistently underestimated the strength of high pressure. Hopefully that is not the case this year and it stays N of the islands and up to the grave yard.
Remnant Low #2 may sneak back up as well.
0-0-0
Today maybe the red circle gets a name?
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Looks can be deceiving... TD#2 Remnants still have an excellent structure (Vorticity wise) It has a well defined 850MB to 500MB VORT MAX and also it has an OK low level convergence but it definitely has a better upper level divergence which is out weighting it. So it will be able to sustain itself and regenerate once it starts hitting warmer waters.
Finally, it has some little shear to work with and little SAL to worry about.
90L looks very similar to 90L(Dean) from 2007.
Just saw on GMA a preview of 20/20 special tonight, "Blown Away - Twisted Terror" - about the EF5 tornado that struck Parkersburg, Iowa on the afternoon of May 25, 2008. In case anyone's interested.
Indeed... also HWRF has been hitting towards a jog to the left on the latter part so might be indicative of a stronger Bermuda High as GFS is depicting and which I believe might be the case.
GFS could be right...I don't know.
Long-term from Mobile,AL....
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ON SATURDAY...A PIECE OF IT IS FORECAST TO
BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS ENERGY (BEST SEEN AT 1.5
PV SFC) RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL HELP THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH TO SHIFT WEST WITH A DEEPER SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACCORDINGLY RESPOND WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST IN
THE EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE EASTERN AND COASTAL ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE THE
GREATEST. WHILE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL DWINDLE OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP TO BE A RATHER WET DAY ACROSS THE CWA.
THE CULPRIT FOR THIS IJOE MANISCALCOS ACTUALLY A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECWMF APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WELL AND BOTH MOVE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...IT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN PRECIP WATERS STRAIGHT
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS (POSSIBLY OVER 2.25 INCHES) WHICH SHOULD
CORRESPOND TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS WAVE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY...KEEPING AN ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS TIME.
Quoting iluvjess:
22N 77W is worth watching...
NOGAPS takes that here...Florida panhandle.
as a......???
It certainly is an AOI, it has up-to-date model runs, etc.
Seems it would be posted just like an "invest" would. (?)
Yes, the similarities are actually quite stunning in terms of track and appearance.
Thank you in advance. :)
here you go:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
Rainmaker.
Do you have a link to that? Mine shows New Orleans. Thanks.
THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HEAD WEST WITH THE
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CLOSE ON ITS HEELS. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT US IS CAUSING ISSUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARRIBEAN...HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE GULF...GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WANT TO
DEVELOP AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF TWO UPPER
LOWS. THE FIRST IS THE TUTT LOW MOVING WEST OVER CUBA. THIS ONE
WILL SINK BENEATH THE SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AS THESE TWO BECOME MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED...A VERY LARGE AND LONG
AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BREAK OUT FROM THE WESTERN
CARRIBEAN THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
BURSTS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESS WESTWARD BRINGING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD ALSO CAUSE A PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE BURST OFF OUR
SHORELINE AS WELL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
FETCH AND WIND STRENGTH ALONG THE MENTIONED FETCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF TIDES WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE GULF
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...
ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST...A QUICK BUT SHORT LASTING SURGE
OF DRY AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND GIVE
US A DRY WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MOST ATTENTION WILL BE
ON THE TROPICS ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT WELL STRUCTURED TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. DRAWING ANY CONCULSIONS AT THIS
TIME FROM US OR ANY OTHER MET OUTLET WOULD SIMPLY BE CONJECTURE.
SO ATTM...WILL ONLY SAY THAT THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT 28W 13N HAS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE.
I go with that. I think we in the islands need to put last preps in place.
The NOGAPS handling of 90L is very poor, in fact it seems its gotten ex-TD2 and 90L mixed up in terms of strength.
LOL!!!
"DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY ON SOUTH WINDS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
DOMINATE OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT WITH HUMIDITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN RECENTLY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEASONABLY HOT."
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