TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Doesn't matter how hot the water is there. It is SHALLOW, and any approaching hurricane will weaken big time.
yep its a big mess =\
Tell that to my friends who went through IVAN
I hear ya. Hugo was pretty bad in here (Puerto Rico) as well, though I think not as bad as Georges in 1998. Best wishes for you guys. May the 9s "curse" be broken this time.
Here's the current 2009 SST:
The Gulf is warm but other areas of the tropical Atlantic are cooler than during 2005, amazingly.
It makes me feel bad to read this. Please don't despair. Things will be ok, even if you are hit this year. There are innumerable people ready to help if needed - count on it.
Is this recent?
just saw it on the navy page
I don't think I have heard that one before, and if I have, must have chosen to conveniently forget that theory. :-)
Its been out for several hours actually.
Must be looking at the wrong system.
It was issued at 1900z (3:00 PM EDT)
I'm surprised it still shows a GOM hit.
What happened to the trough? lol.
I tend to notice things late lol
What's up Ike? Funny thing everytime I see your avatar, No Quarter starts playing in my head. LOL
lets what I wake up to tomorrow
goodnight everyone =D
Uh
^^^^
90L sure is liking D-max
It makes me feel bad to read this. Please don't despair. Things will be ok, even if you are hit this year. There are innumerable people ready to help if needed - count on it.
Have to agree with you guys but coping the storm and hope for the best , wouldn't ever leave my beloved island.
Yes that is an old image.
Thanks a lot for such kind words FLSky. It's just that it's a tough time here, but so is in most parts of the World. I'm sure we'll be fine; we are a tough little island that has been blessed many times so maybe we'll be spared again. I'm lucky to live in a relatively safe zone (not flood prone area, solid structure) but I worry about others who are not as lucky. It may take us some time to recover if a hurricane hit us (and right now 90L looks scary), but we've done it in the past and we will again. ;-)
If you can't see my photo, click on the link. It's safe. It's from my website, and I have no idea how to spread a virus, and wouldn't want to!
Great song.
I just woke up....had my computer on...looked at the latest GFS and thought about the adage...it only takes one. This would be the "A" storm.
1997.
Other animations.
Note: HWRF not quite done until 1:35 AM, but is through 108 hours as of this posting.
Ivan was indeed very destructive, but its southwestern eyewall eroded prior to landfall, resulting in weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 3.
Of course we can. Latest satellite images from Navy and RAMSDIS show its much more organized. Should be a good TWO at 2am.
Yeah.... I don't like the thought of anything getting into the GOM with the SST's that are currently out there
I understand that KTM, but they told me that it just stalled when it made landfall and it was 10-12 hours of a$$ whipping winds. Haven't been through one yet, but I don't think a CAT 3 is anything to sneeze at.
Of course not, I apologize if it sounded like I was implying that a Category 3 was not threatening. Many of the more powerful U.S. hurricanes have been Category 3's. What really matters is, whether or not you are in that right-front quadrant, which I am assuming your friends were.
Staying off-topic...posting pictures not related to the tropics...
You would be singing a different tune if we had development prior to August. It'd go something like this:
Person A: We're going to have no development in August. Everything has fizzled thus far.
centex: Bah, not true. Everything also fizzled up until the last of June, and then we had two storms back to back. Give it time.
But since such a thing has not happened, you are making the fatal mistake of letting your guard down.
AXNT20 KNHC 140524
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR
14.2N 39.3W MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT. WWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED. ADVISORIES ARE NO
LONGER BEING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N72W TO 4N69W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT
CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WRN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 2334
UTC INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND AN INVERTED-V
STRUCTURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THIS WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
68W-70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN
68W-72W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 79W-82W. LARGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 12N27W 13N36W 10N48W
11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
25W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 34W-43W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND
INTO THE E GULF FROM 29N81W TO 26N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF TO
28N85W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC ARE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF AND
FLORIDA N OF 25N E OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N W OF 91W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...AS OF 0300 UTC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS CENTERED OVER
TEXAS NEAR 31N102W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE TO REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE WATERS
LATER TODAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MUCH
OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF E CUBA NEAR
20N76W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TREKS WWD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC NW
OF A LINE FROM 24N80W TO 31N73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS N
FLORIDA TO NEAR 29N81W INTO THE ATLC TO NEAR 31N79W...AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 36N64W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO N OF THE ERN BAHAMAS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 71W-76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W
AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 36N64W. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
HISPANIOLA IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 23N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 53W-56W ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 36N64W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N45W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 36N31W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N28W DOMINATES THE OVER THE ERN ATLC
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
WALTON
MJO
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