TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think SE Florida is probable but really it could anywhere on the coast. If it were to hit Florida it is most likely it would recurve up the state like Frances and Jeanne and not make it in the GOM. But, as far as the CONUS goes, I'm more worried about Florida since that would be the first place to be hit and there'll be more than enough time to worry about another landfall.
Disclaimer: this does not constitute medical advice!
I think we need to watch ex-TD2 as well but knowing how weak it is I think it will likely to be a caribbean system
how strong do you think it would be then? thank you so much for answering me. im just kinda jittery because wilma hurt us bad and it was only a cat 1 here in northern broward, a cat 3 or hell, with these model projects, even more, we could be in for a lot of trouble. again, thanks for the help
Bottle it!
well, most municipal water supplies do have trace amounts of pharms in them...mostly hormones and statins (cholesterol drugs)...and caffeine...'course you'd have to drink a few 1000 gallons to get a dose
thats what im seeing too
That seems accurate but development is not forecast
All this where will it go is moot. Long range forecasts mean nothing
This is from Max Mayfields blog yesterday:
"In my opinion, there is a very good reason that the NHC only issues forecasts out to five days. At this time, the science doesn’t support an official forecast beyond that time period. However, the Internet has made it easy for anyone to view the longer range forecasts. No one can tell you with any certainty how accurate they will be."
Model preformance tends to vary per storm, season, etc. Here's all the model errors for TD2 over time. 90L hasn't been around long enough to compare model preformance.
What are the chances of invest 90 being a Cat 5 at landfall if it reaches the GOM? Asking cuz the GOM is so warm.
Jeff, I realize that this is yours and others livelihood, and you love your jobs, but I find it a bit disconcerting when these storms are anthropomorphized on the site, and it seems as if there is genuine disappointment when disturbances do not turn into tropical storms or hurricanes...we should marvel at nature, but like Frankenstein and his monster, realize we cannot forget the potential ramifications of anything coming to fruition in our enthusiasm for what we do and live for.
I turn to your site for straight up and accurate info since I live in a hurricane hotspot...
I think people were just taken at back by what you said because you seemed so sure when in reality you cant be.
No one can answer this. not even god.
I'll get banned if I say it...
Slow, slow, quick-quick slow, Foxtrot, anyone?
:-)
If either TD2 or 90L make it to me [@12-61.7], that'd only be a TS, right? The lower, the weaker?
Real question: What are my chances of another Ivan, or Emily, compared to, say, PR or Barbados?
I have never seen Dr. Masters seem disappointed when something didn't form. Some on his blog may be like that but he doesn't control what they post.
Kinda Early ...
"Hurrincane watches"??? We don't even have a tropical depression, it is over 3,000 miles and we're talking about potential hurricane watches. Are you sure you heard right? It is way too early to have that conversation.
It's all speculation...
and pretty ridiculous...
dude, your killing me...
Who, within 100 km of any coast on any seas doesn't?
Greater than or equal to 0% and less than or equal to 100%.
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