TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength
Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.
Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.
Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).
African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 — Blog Index
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.
TD2
90L
AOI
I second that. Be prepared for anything even if the models don't initially have a storm heading in your direction, a lot of things could change.
Oh, believe me I am! Have been through a couple of hurricanes already and I am ready since the begining of the season. Just a question I have always had :)
I am in Puerto Rico Tampa.
Why is South Florida consistently your big target? Why not Central Florida? Or the Carolinas? or PR?
Yes I know and I do follow the advices. What I want to know is about the accuracy of the models.
Or it could recurve out to sea.
Hum.....your looking at about 7 days out from there.....is my best guess...
What? Can you speak English?
Is that the one that was missing for the past 15-20 years?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
or
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
REALLY!?? Just once PLEASE... I want to see you type T H E In a row. That would be the word THE
Because Florida sticks out like a sore thumb in the middle of the ocean and is basically always affected by a storm that passes by.
I must tell you that am SHOCKED by such immature, and poor grammatical posting. If one were to guess anything about you, based on the pic you provided.. it would say "Jason clearly has his life together. He is well educated, and doesn't live in his mother's trailer" Now perhaps you just had a bad day at your law firm, or your trophy wife overspent on your black AMEX card....
.. just let's get back to being the REAL, TRUE, Jason... that so transparently is you.
1)from PR
2)not male
(j/k :p Tampa)
Definitely... since ECMWF is being aggressive on this run... then the is feeling more atmosphere and recurving sooner.
WS its more like to follow you everywhere and anywhere you go.....at least in your mind that is......JUST KIDDING YOU!
The accuracy of an NHC forecast at 5 days out is +/- 300 miles. This is as good a forecast as you can get, because it includes all models plus expert human interpretation.
So if you're talking about only 1 model, no human interpretation, and more than 5 days, you can see that the "cone of uncertainty" is absolutely huge.
Well, that proves it. You just can't fix stupid.
HEAD ON....."Apply directly to the forhead"
Hmm, maybe its my english Tampa, no worries. Let me try to rephrase it. The models are more accurate for 1 day...2 days? 90L is about 7 days away from PR...but how accurate is that (considering that I am aware that it might change due to other conditions in the atmosphere). How far in time can the models be trusted?
Thank you!
On Thursday, August 13, the following exclusive schedule will be
employed to support maneuver operations: (*PLEASE NOTE the scheduled
GOES-11 (GOES-West) Full Disk scan period to support the primary
GOES-12
(GOES-East) outage during the maneuver.*)
GOES-12 (GOES-East) Maneuver Schedule starts at 1905 UTC on Thursday,
August 13, 2009.
(Southern Hemisphere Scan at 1909 UTC is canceled)
>From 13/1915 UTC through 14/0059 UTC -- GOES-12 (GOES-East) Routine
Imaging and Soundings.
*From 14/0100 UTC through 14/0214 UTC -- No GOES-12 (GOES-East) Imaging
or Soundings*
**From 14/0100 UTC through 14/0229 UTC -- GOES-11 (GOES-West) Full Disk
Imaging**
>From 14/0215 UTC through 14/0914 UTC -- GOES-12 (GOES-East) Post
Maneuver Recovery Including (updated for KOZ interference):
* Full Disk Images (19 minute scan) at XX15 and XX45
* CONUS Soundings at XX46
* 0415, 0445, 0515 & 0545 Short Full Disk Images will be canceled.
* The following images have been scheduled in place of the Short Full
Disk Images:
- 0445 - Northern Hemisphere Extended Image
- 0456 - CONUS image
- 0515 - CONUS image
- 0522 - CONUS image
- 0545 - CONUS image
- 0556 - CONUS image
0915 UTC August 14 -- GOES-12 (GOES-East) Routine Scan Operations
Resume
Expect GOES-12 (GOES-East) imager and sounder gridding offsets for
up to
6 hours following the maneuver.
Yeah, I'm done with JFster. I'm ignoring him now. Its obvious he's now purposely misspelling his posts. Its almost troll-ish.
However, TD2 still has a long way to go before it can survive this environment. Tonight will be important cause it needs to take advantage of DMAX if it is going to strengthen.
LOL! You are quite right! ;-)
The Navy site has the coordinates for TD2 at .2 degrees further North than earlier today. Previously it had been running pretty much straight due West along the 14 degree N lat. line but visible loop imagery confirms that it has now lifetd N of that position.
I suspect that the reason for this is that the low level steering that is controlling the system has pulled up to the North a bit and the flow to the WSW has now eased off some.
This is allowing TD2 to pull up on a course that is probably around 280 degrees ( with due West being 270). By tonight we will have a good sense of whether that estimate is more or less correct. It is too early to say if this means it is headed out to the N Atl. or simply on a track to the N of the Islands.
I still do not think it will enter the Caribbean but time will tell about that.
In the mean time 90L has flattened out some from 280 degrees this morning to 275 or just barely N of due West. The NHC consider this a W heading.
Here is the current steering flow showing how the winds have relaxed above TD2
Damn! lol
Thanks! That was what I was looking for. Thanks to the other guys as well.
In my best Opininon....the steering flow with the highs are not going to change to much over the next 3-4 days....after that its hard to tell......it could go north of you or it could go south and it could go straight over you.....watch the next 4 days and by then you will have at least a window to see where it might be moving.
Good post
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 — Blog Index